2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (July)
While July is the month of Emmy nominations, it’s also when Venice announces its lineup (July 22) and Toronto reveals its sidebar sections and a handful of big, splashy world premiere titles. While we do have a heads up on a few of those already; Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt with Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri and Andrew Garfield will kick off at Venice, Nia DaCosta’s Hedda with Tessa Thompson will bow at TIFF.
I’ve acquiesced on Sinners, raising it in my rankings this month but it’s still with cautious optimism. There is a world where Warner Bros makes good on its promise to re-release the film in the fall for an awards season push but it’s going to need an EEAAO-level lift from critics come awards time as well. It’s a very SAG-friendly film and cast and that’s a great foundation for it. If the actors involved can clear their schedules long enough through December and January for events and Q&As, that charm and face to face will go a long way to bridging the gap of the genre. Just like Everything Everything Everywhere All At Once did, and how the non-genre but ultra basic CODA clinched it in phase two.
Something’s brewing with Searchlight Pictures, a spectacularly successful studio for curating Best Picture nominees and winners and one of the few that are able to expertly manage strong campaigns for more than one film in a given year. While It’s This Thing On?, the third directorial effort of Bradley Cooper (Maestro, A Star Is Born), is seemingly on the horizon, the sleeper choice is Hikari’s Rental Family. The film, about a Hollywood actor (Oscar winner Brendan Fraser) who is hired by a Japanese company to play out roles in various clients’ lives, just got a prime awards release date of November 21. It screams TIFF People’s Choice winner to me but I can also see a tug-o-war between Toronto and Telluride here, as these fall fests are constantly having to duke it out for world premieres.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for July.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 3. Jay Kelly (Netflix) |
| 4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 5. Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 6. Hamnet (Focus Features) |
| 7. Marty Supreme (A24) |
| 8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios) |
| 9. Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 10. Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 11. Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 12. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) |
| 13. The Secret Agent (NEON) |
| 14. After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) |
| 15. The Smashing Machine (A24) |
| 16. The Ballad of the Small Player (Netflix) |
| 17. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) |
| 18. F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros) |
| 19. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 20. The Lost Bus (Apple) |
Next up: Ann Lee (TBD), At the Sea (TBD), Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Sound of Falling (MUBI), Train Dreams (Netflix), Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Other contenders: Anemone (Focus Features), A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Die My Love (MUBI), Eleanor the Great (Sony Pictures Classics), Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Highest 2 Lowest (Apple/A24), The History of Sound (MUBI), A House of Dynamite (Netflix), If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures), The Life of Chuck (NEON), The Mastermind (MUBI), The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Pressure (Focus Features)
2025 or 2026?: The Drama (A24), The Rivals of Amziah King (TBD)
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 3. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 4. Jay Kelly – Noah Baumbach (Netflix) |
| 5. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features) |
| 6. Hikari – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 7. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident (NEON) |
| 8. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24) |
| 9. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 10. Scott Cooper – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century) |
| 11. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 12. Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent (NEON) |
| 13. Luca Guadagino – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) |
| 14. Benny Safdie – The Smashing Machine (A24) |
| 15. Jon M. Chu – Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 16. Edward Berger – The Ballad of the Small Player (Netflix) |
| 17. Joseph Kosinski – F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros) |
| 18. Richard Linklater – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) |
| 19. Paul Greengrass – The Lost Bus (Apple) |
| 20. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) |
Next up: Mona Fastvold – Ann Lee (TBD), James Cameron – Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios), Kathryn Bigelow – A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Other contenders: Ronan Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features), Kornél Mundruczó – At the Sea (TBD), Kogonada – A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Richard Linklater – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Lynne Ramsay – Die My Love (MUBI), James L. Brooks – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Oliver Hermanus – The History of Sound (MUBI), Taika Waititi – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures), Mike Flanagan – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Anthony Maras – Pressure (Focus Features), Wes Anderson – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Mascha Schilinski – Sound of Falling (MUBI)
2025 or 2026?: Kristoffer Borgli – The Drama (A24)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- ‘Jay Kelly,’ ‘Hamnet,’ ‘Pluribus,’ ‘Task’ and More on AFI’s Top 10 Films and Television of 2025 Lists - December 4, 2025
- ‘Frankenstein’ to Receive Visionary Honor from Palm Springs International Film Awards - December 4, 2025
- Robert Yeoman to be Honored with American Society of Cinematographers’ Lifetime Achievement Award - December 3, 2025
‘Jay Kelly,’ ‘Hamnet,’ ‘Pluribus,’ ‘Task’ and More on AFI’s Top 10 Films and Television of 2025 Lists 
‘Frankenstein’ to Receive Visionary Honor from Palm Springs International Film Awards 
Robert Yeoman to be Honored with American Society of Cinematographers’ Lifetime Achievement Award 
National Board of Review: ‘One Battle After Another’ Tops in Film, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor; Netflix Lands Four in Top 10