2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Previews the Historic Debut of the Casting Category and Fall’s Early Contenders

Film festival season is nearly here, and some of the mystery around separating contenders from pretenders will begin to lift once we’re in the mountains of Telluride later this month. Before the madness begins, I wanted to do one last update to my Oscar predictions and preview the Academy’s newest category, Achievement in Casting, which is set to debut this awards season at the 98th Academy Awards. 

This announcement was a big deal — the first new category introduced since 2001, when the Academy finally established the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film. Best Achievement in Casting will “recognize the vital role casting directors play in filmmaking by assembling a film’s acting ensemble through creative collaboration with filmmakers and producers.” It’s not quite the same as SAG’s Ensemble award, but it treads similar ground — recognizing the collective alchemy behind a film’s cast.

Before we get too far into the weeds of this new category, let’s take a look at recent trailers released since my last Awards Alchemist report and see which films could be in the hunt.

Major contenders

Jay Kelly – teaser (Netflix)

A quick teaser was released on August 5th asking if we know how hard it is to be yourself. If Hollywood loves anything, it’s stories about itself. George Clooney stars in the titular role of an aging movie star reflecting on the choices they’ve made and how those decisions impacted their friends and families and the legacies they leave behind.

Jay Kelly is directed by Noah Baumbach and also stars Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, and Billy Crudup. Baumbach’s films have resonated with the Academy before (see Marriage Story), and this one already feels like it’s playing to familiar strengths.

Contenders

The History of Sound (MUBI)

While Jay Kelly leans into Hollywood introspection, The History of Sound offers a more intimate, period-set romance that could appeal to a different corner of the Academy. Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor play star-crossed lovers in the trailer for Oliver Hermanus’ romantic, early 20th century drama. It’s a striking preview, and based on Erik’s excellent Cannes coverage, The History of Sound could be one of the better films of the year. 

That doesn’t, of course, mean that it will be a strong award contender. For those who see the glass as half full, a previous Hermanus film, Living (2022), had similar tones and themes and found its way to two Oscar nominations – Adapted Screenplay (Kazuo Ishiguro) and Lead Actor (Bill Nighy). 

Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)

Say what you will about James Cameron’s Avatar franchise, but to me they are among the most beautiful and visionary films ever made. So, I couldn’t be more excited for the third installment in the Na’vi lore. The first Avatar (2009) received nine nominations, including Picture and Director, and won three Oscars (Cinematography, Art Direction, and Visual Effects). Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) didn’t do as well, but still garnered four nominations, including Picture, and won again for Visual Effects. I’m not sure what to make of Fire and Ash’s Oscar chances, but I loved the trailer. This could be solely a craft contender or it could follow in the path of the first two films. The smart move is never to bet against James Cameron. 

Craft contenders

Tron: Ares (Disney)

Tron: Legacy (2010) was nominated for Sound Editing. I think the latest installment will have a solid chance below the line in categories like Sound, Visual Effects, Editing, Production Design, and Original Score. Nine Inch Nails (Trent Reznor) is behind the electric score for the film, and if it weren’t for the major snubbing the Academy gave Daft Punk for their score on Legacy, I’d be a lot higher on its chances.

In the conversation

No Other Choice – teaser (NEON)

Any time Park Chan-Wook has a new film, there is a reason to be excited. While Oldboy (2003) The Handmaiden (2016), and Decision to Leave (2022) failed to receive any Oscar attention in their respective years, the hope is the newer, internationally-leaning Academy might feel it is time to make up for that by honoring one of South Korea’s most celebrated filmmakers. 

The teaser is sparse, but what little we see is enough to get me fully onboard.

Train Dreams (Netflix)

Academy Award-nominated writer Clint Bentley (Sing Sing) directs his second feature film after Jockey (2021). The film played at Sundance and Toronto last year and stars Joel Edgerton, Felicity Jones, Kerry Condon, and William H. Macy. The trailer looks beautiful, looking akin to a Terence Malick film.

Alejandra Martinez reviewed the film for us out of Sundance giving it high praise. 

Netflix has a lot on their slate this year, so I’m not sure how much they’ll prioritize Train Dreams when they have Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, Wake Up Dead Man, and A House of Dynamite, but I could see it having a shot with more independent-focused bodies like the Spirit Awards.

Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)

What to make of this one? I can’t help but think this one screams pretender, but the Academy has gone for other feel-good fluff in recent years. Think: Green Book (2018) and CODA (2021), two recent winners that were softhearted, cookie-cutter films that just took over awards season. Perhaps it will be the same for Rental Family, but my gut-feeling on this initial trailer isn’t great.

Achievement in Casting

Of course, a film’s success often starts well before the camera rolls—specifically, in the casting room. That’s why the Academy’s decision to introduce a new category for Achievement in Casting feels particularly timely.

I’m thrilled that the Academy is finally honoring casting directors with their own category. I’ve been advocating for this for nearly 20 years, and it’s about time their creative contributions were formally recognized. Casting is one of the most essential elements of filmmaking—a film can live or die by its casting choices.

Here’s how voting for the new Achievement in Casting Oscar will work (per AMPAS):

Preliminary Voting: The Casting Directors Branch (~160 members) reviews eligible films and votes to create a shortlist of up to 10 films, based on the level of creative input and collaboration in the casting process.

Bake-Off Event: Shortlisted films are showcased at a “bake-off” where branch members view five-minute reels and participate in a Q&A with the casting directors. Casting directors must submit a written description of their casting process and a photo grid or full cast list.

Nomination Process: The Branch Executive Committee determines up to two individuals per film who were primarily responsible for casting and received on-screen credit. Only branch members who have viewed all 10 shortlisted films can vote to select five nominees.

Final Voting: An edited version of the bake-off presentations and cast materials is made available to all Academy members for final voting, open to active and life members. Disputes or eligibility questions must be submitted by a deadline to be determined.

With the logistics in place, it’s worth exploring how this new award stacks up against similar honors already in play. 

Naturally, Achievement in Casting will invite comparisons to existing awards, particularly SAG Ensemble and BAFTA’s Best Casting. While each has a distinct focus and voting body, there is some overlap in Academy membership, so it’s reasonable to expect occasional convergence.

Here’s how they differ:

• SAG Ensemble honors the performance of the full cast—how the actors worked together on screen. It is voted on by actors.
  
• The Oscar for Casting will spotlight the behind-the-scenes work of casting directors—their eye for chemistry, innovation, and cohesion. It is voted on by the Casting Directors Branch.
  
• BAFTA’s Best Casting (established in 2019) similarly honors casting directors, but its voting body is the acting branch rather than casting professionals.

While still in its infancy, the new category could eventually reflect trends we’ve seen elsewhere. Take 2024, for instance:

• Anora, the BAFTA winner, was praised for its authentic casting of lesser-known actors.
  
• Conclave, the SAG winner, boasted a star-studded ensemble that delivered crowd-pleasing performances.

That contrast may help us anticipate the direction AMPAS will take—leaning toward artistic vision and originality in casting over sheer acting firepower.

In the six years since BAFTA introduced the Best Casting award, eight of their nominees have also received SAG Ensemble nods:

• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (2019)
  
• Minari (2020)
  
• King Richard (2021)
  
• Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022)
  
• Killers of the Flower Moon (2023)
  
• Anora (2024)
  
• Conclave (2024)
  
• A Complete Unknown (2024)

Notably, from 2019 to 2023, only one film overlapped each year. But in 2024, that number jumped to three, suggesting a potential trend toward greater alignment between BAFTA and SAG. As the AMPAS category matures, it will be interesting to see whether it forges its own identity or gradually reflects existing patterns.

One through-line likely to endure is a shared appreciation across all three bodies for diverse and distinctive ensembles. Of the eight overlapping films mentioned above, five featured notably diverse casts, and five boasted major star power. That seems like a smart place to begin early Oscar speculation: which upcoming films offer either—or better yet, both?

Diverse & Big Cast

• Sinners
  
• Wicked: for Good
  
• One Battle After Another
  
• After the Hunt
  
• Bugonia
  
• The Smashing Machine
  
• A House of Dynamite
  
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
  
• Eddington
  
• Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
  
• F1: The Movie
  
• Die My Love

Diverse Cast

• Ballad of a Small Player
  
• Rental Family
  

Big Cast

• Marty Supreme
  
• Wake Up Dead Man
  
• Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
  
• Jay Kelly
  
• Frankenstein
  
• The Phoenician Scheme
  
• Highest 2 Lowest
  
• Is This Thing On?
  
• Father Mother Sister Brother
  
• Nuremberg
  
• Ann Lee
  
• Pressure
  

Other Contenders

• Hamnet
  
• The History of Sound
  
• Anemone
  
• Warfare
  
• Kiss of the Spider Woman
  
• The Rivals of Amziah King
  
• The Lost Bus
  
• Nouvelle Vague

International Contenders

• Sentimental Value
  
• No Other Choice
  
• The Secret Agent
  
• It Was Just an Accident

Oscar Prediction Updates

I’m starting with my first predictions for Best Achievement in Casting, then diving into updated forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and all four acting categories as fall festival season approaches.

On the Radar:

1. After the Hunt
2. Wake Up Dead Man
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Jay Kelly 
6. Frankenstein
7. A House of Dynamite
8. Marty Supreme
9. Hamnet
10. Ann Lee

On the Radar:

1. Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
3. F1: The Movie (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
4. The Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
6. The Smashing Machine (A24)
7. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)
8. It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
9. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)

On the Radar:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly)
3. Jon M. Chu (Wicked:For Good)
4. James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
5. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
6. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
7. Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite)
8. Scott Cooper (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)
9. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)
10. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice)

On the Radar:

1. Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)
2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
3. June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)
4. Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
5. Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite)

On the Radar:

1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
3. Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player) 
4. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)
5. Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus)

On the Radar:

1. Amy Adams (Klara and the Sun)
2. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man)
3. Tilda Swinton (The Ballad of a Small Player)
4. Laura Dern (Jay Kelly)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)

On the Radar:

1. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
2. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
3. Miles Caton (Sinners)
4. Jeffrey Wright (Highest 2 Lowest)
5. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

Latest posts by Mark Johnson (see all)

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