2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s Updates Following Venice and Telluride

For Oscar pundits, phase one is now complete. The “way too early” stretch when predictions are stitched together from Sundance or Cannes crumbs is in our rearview. With Venice and Telluride wrapped (and Toronto midway through) we’re entering phase two, when many of the major contenders have premiered and the race starts to take shape. Soon comes phase three, as critics’ groups and guilds weigh in and consensus forms, before we reach the fourth and final stage: picking winners. But right now, in the wake of Venice and Telluride, the field is wide open, and this is where the analysis starts to get really fun.

Cannes, Venice, and Telluride are critical launchpads for Oscar contenders, with data underscoring their dominance. From 2007 to 2024, 13 of 18 Best Picture winners (72%) premiered at one of these festivals, from No Country for Old Men (2007) to Anora (2024). The King’s Speech (2010) and Green Book (2018) launched at Toronto, CODA (2021) at Sundance, and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022) at South by Southwest. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer (2023) bypassed festivals entirely, relying on Christopher Nolan’s clout and a strategic summer release to build its awards momentum. 

That history underlines how crucial the fall festivals usually are. It also helps explain why all eyes this year have been on Cannes, Venice, Telluride, and now, Toronto, where the buzz has crystallized around a dozen or so films, shaping the race across major categories. The festival standouts include Hamnet, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, The Smashing Machine, F1: The Movie, The Secret Agent, The Lost Bus, Rental Family, and The Testament of Ann Lee, while non-festival films like Sinners and One Battle After Another are on the lips of every awards hound. Each contender has generated critical acclaim, audience enthusiasm, or both, but the race remains fluid as we await key premieres and the critical consensus that will emerge in phase three.

From my calculations, two films have surged to the forefront: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (Warner Bros.) and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (Focus Features). Analytically, these films are neck-and-neck, where I have Sinners projected to lead with 12 nominations and Hamnet close behind with 11. Their critical reception underscores their strength. As of this moment, Hamnet boasts a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes (based on 20+ reviews) and a 95/100 on Metacritic, reflecting near-universal praise for Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about the Shakespeare family. Jessie Buckley’s performance as Agnes Hathaway has drawn particular acclaim. Sinners, a genre-bending drama, holds a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and an 88/100 on Metacritic, buoyed by its emotional depth and Michael B. Jordan’s commanding lead performance. Historically, films with Rotten Tomatoes scores above 90% and Metacritic scores above 85 at this stage (think Parasite, 2019 or Oppenheimer, 2023) often sustain momentum through the season. Still, Sinners’ earlier release could test its staying power against Hamnet’s festival-fueled buzz.

The dynamic between the two films is further enriched by the strong friendship between their directors. Coogler, speaking with Zhao at Telluride, praised her Hamnet, telling her, “The other films were beautiful, but you hid behind things. This is the first time I saw you in there. You’re finally being seen.” This camaraderie adds an intriguing layer to a race where both films are vying for the same prizes. While Sinners leans on its bold narrative and technical prowess, Hamnet offers a prestige drama with emotional resonance, a formula that has historically appealed to Academy voters.

Still, two frontrunners don’t make a full field. Several high-profile contenders have yet to premiere, and their arrival could quickly shuffle the deck. Major films on the horizon include Wicked: For Good, Marty Supreme, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Is This Thing On? These titles, some set to debut at festivals like Toronto (TIFF), New York (NYFF), AFI, Mill Valley, and Middleburg, could reshape the conversation. The AwardsWatch team will be on the ground at each of these events, tracking reactions and analyzing how these latecomers stack up. With so many heavyweights still in play, phase two is where the real work begins: separating early hype from lasting contenders.

A notable trend this year is the potential for multiple studios to secure two (or more) Best Picture nominations, a rare but not unprecedented feat. Since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to more than five nominees in 2009, it has become relatively common for multiple distributors to achieve this in a single year, with seven instances recorded:

2010: Fox Searchlight Pictures (Black Swan, 127 Hours) and Paramount Pictures (The Fighter, True Grit)

2011: DreamWorks/Disney (The Help, War Horse) and Fox Searchlight Pictures (The Descendants, The Tree of Life)

2013: Columbia Pictures (American Hustle, Captain Phillips), Warner Bros. (Gravity, Her), and Paramount Pictures (Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street)

2016: Paramount Pictures (Arrival, Fences) and Lionsgate (Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land)

2017: Fox Searchlight Pictures (The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Focus Features (Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread)

2019: Netflix (The Irishman, Marriage Story) and Sony Pictures (Little Women, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood)

2021: Netflix (Don’t Look Up, The Power of the Dog) and Warner Bros. (Dune, King Richard)

In the past three years, only A24 managed two nominations in a given year (2023), as the Academy has distributed nominations more evenly. However, history shows that multiple studios can indeed land multiple Best Picture nominations in any given year.

Focus Features has a strong hand with Hamnet, Bugonia, and Anemone. Warner Bros. boasts Sinners, One Battle After Another, and F1: The Movie (alongside Apple Original Films). Netflix is a powerhouse with Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, Nouvelle Vague, Train Dreams, and Wake Up Dead Man. NEON, always a contender, has stacked the deck (internationally speaking) with Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent. This could be a year where a few distributors break through with multiple entries, reflecting the depth of their slates. As competition intensifies, their standout films will face sharper scrutiny in the next phase, shaping which contenders rise or fade.

As we move toward phase three, when critics’ groups and guilds begin their awards, the field will narrow. For now, the data from Venice and Telluride—critical scores, audience buzz, and historical trends—points to a tight race led by early frontrunners Sinners and Hamnet. Below are my updated predictions for the major categories, informed by what I’ve seen at Telluride and the word of mouth from Venice and Toronto. But there’s a clear caveat: the road ahead is long, and the race is only just beginning to heat up.

On the Radar:

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
3. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)
4. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
6. The Smashing Machine (A24)
7. Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. F1: The Movie (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
9. The Secret Agent (NEON)
10. No Other Choice (NEON)
11. The Testament of Ann Lee (TBD)

On the Radar:

1. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
2. Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia)
4. Jon M. Chu (Wicked For Good)
5. James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
6. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

On the Radar:

1. Sydney Sweeney (Christy)
2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)
4. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
5. June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)
6. Tessa Thompson (Hedda)

On the Radar:

1. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) 
2. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)
4. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
5. Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus)
6. Brendan Fraser (Rental Family)

On the Radar:

1. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man)
2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
3. America Ferrera (The Lost Bus)
4. Ayo Edibiri (After the Hunt)
5. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
6. Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners)

On the Radar:

1. Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)
2. Miles Caton (Sinners)
3. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
4. Josh O’Connor (The History of Sound)
5. Robert Pattinson (Die My Love)
6. Akira Emoto (Rental Family)
7. Jack O’Connell (Sinners)
8. Sean Bean (Anemone)
9. Tracy Letts (A House of Dynamite)
10. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

On the Radar:

1. Nouvelle Vague
2. Wake Up Dead Man
3. The History of Sound
4. No Other Choice
5. Nuremberg
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
7. Wicked: For Good
8. Train Dreams

On the Radar:

1. The Secret Agent
2. A House of Dynamite
3. Rental Family
4. Anemone
5. Weapons
6. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

On the Radar:

1. Wake Up Dead Man
2. Jay Kelly 
3. Sentimental Value
4. Rental Family 
5. Marty Supreme

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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