2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST CASTING (September)

I haven’t done new Best Casting predictions since June and a bit has changed since then. As we’re past the Venice/Telluride/Toronto film festivals and on the cusp of New York Film Festival, films are rising after well received premieres and a film opening this week that bypassed fests has made the biggest splash of the season.

You can also check out Mark Johnson aka The Awards Alchemist on his take in the category from August.

For some back story, casting directors did not have a branch of their own until 2013, as they were a part of the Members-at-Large branch. After casting got their own branch, 210 members were pulled from Members-at-Large to create it and as of today, has more than doubled in size to 544 people, making them the second-fastest growing branch in the Academy, after only Documentary. Actors remain the largest individual branch but shrinking in terms of percentage every year.

First, let’s look at the official rules for the category, which were codified earlier this year, because while they answer certain questions, they definitely raise others.

–There will be a preliminary round of voting to determine a shortlist of 10 films, and prior to nominations voting, Casting Directors Branch members will be invited to view a “bake-off” presentation of the shortlisted achievements, including a Q&A with the designated nominees.

–The Branch Executive Committee will then meet to discuss and determine which casting directors – not to exceed two in number – are primarily responsible for the casting and who have received onscreen credit. Producers and directors may be consulted in determining the contribution of potential nominees. Under exceptional circumstances (e.g., specialized casting, essential casting in multiple locations) the Branch Executive Committee will consider and determine the eligibility of one additional credited individual.

–The casting directors associated with the ten films on the shortlist for nominations shall be requested to provide the committee with the following:

-Written descriptions of the casting process unique to their films and of their personal involvement in that process. A template for the statement with the guidelines regarding length and scope will be provided by the Branch Executive Committee.

-Photo grid of the cast and/or the full cast list.

–Achievements shall be judged within the parameters defined by the Executive Committee and on the basis of significant engagement and collaboration with a film’s director and producers in the creative consideration, and selection of the actors who comprise the acting ensemble of the film.

As this is the first year of this category and voted on it by its branch members (like all categories are, save Best Picture), I can’t help but think we’ll see the industry’s top names in the game, like Francine Maisler, Nina Gold, Avy Kaufman, Mary Vernieu, Jennifer Vendetti and more dominating, likely even earning some double nominations in some cases.

Gold, who cast both Telluride favorite and Toronto People’s Choice winner Hamnet and Netflix’s biggest push Jay Kelly could very well be one of those double nominees. Maisler has box office and critical smash Sinners as well as Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Douglas Aibel has Jay Kelly and The Phoenician Scheme while Jennifer Vendetti is a triple threat with Bugonia, Marty Supreme and The Smashing Machine. Then there are also sequels to recent films that will be able to celebrate their casting directors now, like Wicked: For Good (Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey) and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu).

As indicated in my first casting piece this summer, it’s going to be interesting to cross-reference how SAG votes in their Cast category with how casting directors vote here. I expect there to be a lot of crossover between the two bodies and where/why they agree on the same films.

The rise of Weapons is a curious one to consider. I have Amy Madigan in my top 5 and it remains to be seen if that’s real or not but the film went through a complete casting overall due to the dual industry strikes, with only one actor from the initial casting ending up in the film (Austin Abrams). There’s a great narrative to be spun about this casting coup by Allison Jones to create a lineup that led to memorable performances and a massive blockbuster hit.

I’m sticking with Sinners at the top for the depth of its cast and the Maisler of it all but when I screened One Battle After Another on the Warner Bros lot earlier this month the name that got the most audience applause after Paul Thomas Anderson and the cast was casting director Cassandra Kulukindis. That spoke volumes to me about how the industry is embracing this new category in a way that felt very unique to these kinds of screenings.

Here are my 2026 Oscar predictions in Best Casting for September.

Other contenders:  After the Hunt – Jessica Ronane (Amazon MGM) ↓, Avatar: Fire and Ash – Margery Simkin (20th Century Studios), Ballad of a Small Player – Nina Gold, Martin Ware (Netflix) ↓, Blue Moon – Áine O’Sullivan, Olivia Scott-Webb (Sony Pictures Classics), Eddington – Ellen Chenoweth (A24), F1: The Movie – Lucy Bevan, Emily Brockmann (Apple/Warner Bros), Highest 2 Lowest – Kim Coleman (Apple/A24), The Life of Chuck – Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins, Kellie Roy (NEON), The Lost Bus – Francine Maisler (Apple), The Testament of Ann Lee – Beatrix Nemesházi, Isabella Odoffin (TBD),

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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