2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s Updates With Festival Awards and Heading Into Critics Season

It’s November, and with that, we enter phase three of the race: critics’ awards. Last week, the Gotham nominations kicked things off, with other regional and international critics’ prizes right around the corner. Make no mistake, these aren’t major precursors, but what we should watch for is consensus. Which films, crafts, and performances are bubbling to the top across a wide range of voting groups? If nothing else, these early lists help shape perception and likely influence which titles voters prioritize in their screener queue. For many contenders, especially smaller or international ones, the biggest hurdle remains simply getting seen.

Early indicators point to three films leading the Best Picture conversation: Sinners, Hamnet, and One Battle After Another. Each represents a distinct archetype. Sinners is the early-year commercial success, Hamnet the festival breakout, and One Battle After Another the timely cultural commentary. Looking at their critical reception, box office, and alignment with Academy trends, the race looks remarkably balanced heading into critics season.

Directed by Ryan Coogler, Sinners is a vampire horror film rooted in African American folklore, confronting racial history through supernatural allegory in the Jim Crow-era South. Released in April, the film became a breakout hit, grossing $278.6 million domestically and setting new benchmarks for horror. Its early commercial strength, critical acclaim, and high-end craftsmanship positioned it as the standout from the first half of the year. Notably, 76% of its global box office came from U.S. theaters, giving it less international reach than its fiercest competitors. Critical and audience ratings are uniformly strong: 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, 84 on Metacritic, an A CinemaScore (rare for R-rated horror), and a 96% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. 

If Sinners were to win Best Picture, it would be historic. Coogler could become the first Black person to win Director, and only the third Black filmmaker overall to win Picture after Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) and Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). 

Its biggest challenge is likely genre bias. Only one horror film, The Silence of the Lambs in 1991, has ever won Best Picture. While the Academy has grown more receptive to horror as of late (Get Out and The Substance received Picture nominations), the genre still faces a ceiling that may cap Sinners’ Oscar potential.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet is this season’s festival darling. It has dominated the circuit, winning audience awards at Toronto, Middleburg, Mill Valley, Virginia, and San Diego, and topped Michael Patterson’s Telluride poll, which includes critics, awards pundits, and industry insiders. Though it hasn’t competed directly with Sinners or One Battle After Another, its consistent audience response across multiple regions cements it as a frontrunner. 

Hamnet is the emotional pick of the year. Voters drawn to prestige drama and heartfelt storytelling will gravitate toward Zhao’s masterpiece. It’s also a film about art, which the Academy loves, and features the presumed Best Actress front-runner in Jessie Buckley. Recent parallels such as Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Anora show how often Best Picture and Best Actress wins align as of late. 

Behind the scenes, it boasts powerhouse producers Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes. 

Critics’ scores are strong: 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 91 on Metacritic. Box office, however, remains a question mark. Given the recent underperformance of films like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere and The Smashing Machine, expectations should be modest. Fortunately, its lower budget means profitability isn’t make-or-break for awards momentum. Its main obstacle is likely its heaviness. Hamnet isn’t an easy watch. It’s emotionally demanding, though deeply cathartic. The Academy may also feel a lack of urgency to reward Zhao again so soon after her 2020 Nomadland win.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the film of the moment: a sharp, defiant middle finger to the Trump era that speaks directly to a liberal-leaning industry. It features a massive ensemble cast led by Oscar winners Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Benicio del Toro, alongside breakout star Chase Infiniti and supporting turns from Teyana Taylor, Regina Hall, and Tony Goldwyn. That sprawling lineup plays directly into the Academy’s largest branch, the actors. For Anderson, this could be the long-awaited coronation. With eleven nominations and no wins, he wrote, directed, and produced One Battle, setting up multiple paths to victory. 

Critics have rallied behind it, with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and a 95 on Metacritic, the strongest overall performance of the three. Skipping the fall festivals, the film opted for a bold late September release. Domestic box office has been underwhelming, but solid international numbers are stabilizing it. Its provocative themes could divide voters, yet I expect a critics’ wave to carry it through the next stretch.

So we have the commercial juggernaut (Sinners), the festival darling (Hamnet), and the presumed critics’ pick (One Battle After Another) heading into critics season and positioning for the gauntlet that follows after: the industry awards phase (the guilds). That stage matters most because of the membership overlap between AMPAS and groups like PGA (producers), DGA (directors), and SAG-AFTRA (actors). 

If I had to forecast now, One Battle feels favored for DGA and SAG Ensemble. PTA commands immense peer respect, and the film’s cast size and performance will be hard to top. In the preferential ballot era, five Best Picture winners have claimed both DGA and SAG, and every one of those also won PGA. That’s where things get interesting. The Producers Guild, which mirrors the Academy’s preferential system, has predicted the Oscar winner thirteen of the past sixteen years, including the last five straight. DGA has matched ten times in that span, while SAG has matched only eight. If Sinners or Hamnet can snag PGA, they’re still very much alive. But if One Battle After Another sweeps through the critics and guilds, we could be looking at a full-season juggernaut joining Return of the King in 2003, Slumdog Millionaire in 2008, Argo in 2012, and Oppenheimer in 2023 as the only 21st-century films to sweep Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, DGA, and PGA on the road to Best Picture.

Here are my updated Oscar predictions heading into critics season.

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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