2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (November)

In the era of so many supporting actresses fighting for spots, especially against their own co-stars, it’s inevitable that some will start to fall as others rise. This month, it’s Odessa A’zion, a relative newcomer on the scene, leapfrogging over Gwyneth Paltrow in the Timothée Chalamet ping pong biopic Marty Supreme.

Despite a return from semi-retirement and being a previous Oscar winner, Paltrow could suffer from the recent anti-star history we’ve seen with Oscar nominations over the last few years play out and it may be in favor of her co-star, who has a more integral role in film. Paltrow, playing an aging movie star (a theme this season) is fantastic in the film but doesn’t really have an arc they way that A’zion does and one that pulls her and Chalamet across the film’s finish line.

That being said, I’m sticking with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning as the dual Sentimental Value supporting sisters that make it in.

Bigger news though, I’m bumping Ariana Grande up into the top 5. She gets the better new song, she cries – a lot – and I think she may even have more screen time than her Wicked: For Good Best Actress contender co-star Cynthia Erivo. While there is history for and against her even getting a nomination–beginning with Catherine Zeta Jones in 2002’s Chicago–every supporting actress contender in a music nominated for Best Picture has won, save Grande last year but she lost to another actress in a BP-nominated musical (Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez), has won. But, while all three other categories have seen an actor repeat a nomination for playing the same character, this one hasn’t… yet. But if that stat is going to stick, Wicked: For Good will have to secure a Best Picture nod at least. One other caveat; each of the actresses that have won here, which also includes Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls and Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables had belted out the Broadway show’s biggest number to secure that spot. That won’t be the case for Grande, who’s big solo number from the show happened in part one and in part two is given a brand new song as her central piece. Something to think about.

So who showed up at the ‘see and be seen’ Governors Ball this weekend? Odessa A’zion, Emily Blunt, Kerry Condon, Zoey Deutch, Elle Fanning, Rebecca Ferguson, Mia Goth, Ariana Grande, Regina Hall, Jennifer Lopez, Wunmi Mosaku, Gwyneth Paltrow, Hailee Steinfeld and Teyana Taylor did. Who skipped? Glenn Close, Jamie Lee Curtis, Nina Hoss, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Felicity Jones, Amy Madigan and Emily Watson.

Now while this may not dramatically move the needle much, any and all chances to campaign only bring visibility so it’s never a bad thing to find yourself front and center chatting with voters and fellow contenders alike.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress for November.

Other contenders: Glenn Close – The Summer Book (Music Box), Fran Drescher – Marty Supreme (A24), Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) ↓, Mia Goth – Frankenstein (Netflix), Gaby Hoffmann – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), America Ferrera – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) , Thomasin McKenzie – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), Katy O’Brian – Christy (Black Bear), Margaret Qualley – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Son Ye-jin – No Other Choice (NEON), Sissy Spacek – Die My Love (MUBI), Mia Threapleton – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Mari Yamamoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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