FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
We won’t have Writers Guild nominations until after Oscar nominations but with the strictness of the WGA rules eliminating so many top contenders it’s never really a fair precursor to begin with. So what we have are Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominees and winners as well as the BAFTA longlists (who this year are also after Oscar noms) and of course, instinct.
We often look at the screenplay categories for the ‘lone nomination’ film and in each of Adapted and Original there are very few options in that regard. In adapted, it depends on if you think No Other Choice is making it into International Feature Film but it could be a solo nod here. That is, unless Wake Up Dead Man does what both previous Knives Out films. have done, be the one nomination for the film. Earlier in the season, having it in the top 5 was a bit of a no-brainer but then, as time went on, it just kept not showing up anywhere as the previous screenplays did. Not even Critics Choice in a field of six.
Original Screenplay has what feels is a locked top four in Sinners, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident and Marty Supreme, so it’s a matter of figuring out the last spot. Weapons just got a PGA nomination and landed on the BAFTA longlist. Sorry, Baby managed neither of those but writer/director/star Eva Victor did earn a DGA nomination for first-time director and won the lion’s share of those honors with critics. Is it enough to push past Weapons, a film that will earn at least a Supporting Actress nomination, and make the cut? Or maybe it’s Blue Moon, joining Ethan Hawke as that film’s second nomination.
Here are my final 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Bugonia (Focus Features) | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Train Dreams (Netflix) | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix) ↑ | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 6. No Other Choice (NEON) ↓ | CCA, GG |
| 7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓ | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 8. Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 9. Pillion (A24) NEW | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 10. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
Other contenders:
Die My Love (MUBI)
Hedda (Amazon MGM)
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) ↓
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) | GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Sorry, Baby (A24) | CCA |
| 6. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑ | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 7. Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line) ↓ | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 8. The Secret Agent (NEON) | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) ↓ | |
| 10. Jay Kelly (Netflix) ↓ | CCA |
Other contenders:
A House of Dynamite (Netflix) (BAFTA longlist)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Materialists (A24)
Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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