DGA Awards Predictions: Is it a Paul Thomas Anderson Coronation or Can Ryan Coogler Prevail?
The short answers, yes then no. Or maybe. Let’s get into it.
It’s a titanic match-up, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners). Anderson is a longtime, unrewarded veteran nominated for the best reviewed film of his 30-year career in what would be his first DGA win. Coogler is one of only five Black directors even nominated at DGA and no Black director has ever won. He took an April horror release to one of the biggest hits of the year and a record-setting 16 Oscar nominations. There is enormous value, history and validation that will be attached to whomever wins. Apologies to the other nominees here (two of which have won), but it’s just not your year.
As Clayton Davis of Variety recently highlighted in his DGA predictions piece, the Directors Guild of America is unique in that it rewards not only the director but their team. First assistant directors, second assistant directors, unit production managers and more are all celebrated at the DGA Awards. In the case of this year, Anderson’s longtime 1st AD Adam Somner, who passed away last year after filming of One Battle After Another was complete, would be rewarded for his work. If you’ve listened to watched any of Anderson’s televised or recorded speeches, Somner is a crucial part of all of them, often even more than Anderson’s own family. Directors, at least in the guild, will likely recognize this with their vote. When IndieWire interviewed 56 directors–including Michael Mann, Celine Song and David Lowery–about their favorite films of 2025, Anderson’s OBAA topped 20 of those lists. Sinners did well, showing on 10 lists, with directors Karyn Kusama, Joe Dante and Paul Feig singing Coogler’s praises.
Anderson won Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, both journalist organizations. We’re finally at the industry stage of awards season and although we won’t have the frenetic chaos of last year, where DGA and PGA were the same night and even overlapped, the first major guild of the season will have its say, which could foretell what we’ll see on March 15. Stats are great and they give us a roadmap, but not as much for what’s ahead than simply what’s passed. Only eight times has the DGA winner lost the Oscar in 77 years with three of those winners failing to even be nominated by the Academy’s directing branch.
1968: Anthony Harvey, The Lion in Winter; Oscar went to Carol Reed for Oliver!
1972: Francis Ford Coppola, The Godfather; Oscar went to Bob Fosse for Cabaret
1985: Steven Spielberg, The Color Purple; not nominated for the Oscar, which went to Sydney Pollack for Out of Africa
1995: Ron Howard, Apollo 13; not nominated for the Oscar, which went to Mel Gibson for Braveheart
2000: Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic
2002: Rob Marshall, Chicago; Oscar went to Roman Polanski for The Pianist
2012: Ben Affleck, Argo; not nominated for the Oscar, which went to Ang Lee for Life of Pi
2019: Sam Mendes, 1917; Oscar went to Bong Joon Ho for Parasite
In three of those instances, the DGA winner’s film went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture (The Godfather, Chicago, Argo) and only twice–the first and the most recent–saw the opposite happen, with Oliver! and Parasite taking the Best Picture crown. With the exception of the non-Oscar nominated directors, three is the magic number again when it comes to a Best Picture/Best Director split at the Oscars: Cabaret, Traffic and The Pianist.
Since the Oscar nominations were announced, some have twisted themselves into knots in an effort to will the idea of a split but does this feel like a split year? It doesn’t to me, those are usually easier to call and often with two films of very different quality. With PGA voting ending even before DGA voting, there won’t be any impact from one to the other. No so for Oscar voters, who will start their winner voting a mere two days before the PGA reveals their winner. But that’s jumping ahead a bit. Let’s get through the DGA first.
In television directing at the Emmys, drama seemed like a fight between The Pitt and Severance, each with two nominations there. But it was Slow Horses that shocked and surprised (much like it did in writing the year prior), leaving them both, and Andor, empty-handed in that category. At the DGA, Slow Horses isn’t nominated so we’ll see a standoff between Andor, The Pitt and Severance with one them claiming victory (sorry to The Diplomat). I think it will be the John Wells-directed hour of The Pitt, “7:00 A.M.” The show has a second nomination here, for “6:00 P.M., directed by Amanda Marsalis and the DGA doesn’t have any consistent issue with what people like to call ‘vote-splitting.’ A single episode of Euphoria bested two Severance episodes and two years ago, four Succession episodes lost to The Last of Us, making the case for many. But just last year, Shōgun had three episodes nominated and was still able to win.
In comedy, The Studio should easily storm through with “The Oner,” its Emmy-winning episode. Hacks, which has won twice, is probably second but a distant second.
Here are my predictions for the 78th Directors Guild of America in film and television, which will take place on Saturday, February 7 at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California and hosted by Kumail Nanjiani.
FILM
Theatrical Feature Film
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Other nominees: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
First-Time Feature
Will Win: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Could Win: Charlie Polinger, The Plague
Other nominees: Alex Russell, Lurker; Harry Lighton, Pillion; Hasan Hadi, The President’s Cake
Documentary Feature
Will Win: Geeta Gandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
Could Win: Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus, Cover-Up (Netflix)
Other nominees: Mstyslav Chernov, 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS); Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni, Cutting Through Rocks (Assembly Releasing); Elizabeth Lo, Mistress Dispeller (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
TELEVISION
Drama Series
Will Win: John Wells, The Pitt (HBO Max) — “7:00 A.M.”
Could Win: Ben Stiller, Severance (AppleTV+) — “Cold Harbor”
Other nominees: Janus Metz, Andor (Disney+) — “Who Are You?;” Liza Johnson, The Diplomat (Netflix) — “Amagansett,” Amanda Marsalis, The Pitt (HBO Max) — “6:00 P.M.”
Comedy Series
Will Win: Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, The Studio (AppleTV+) — “The Oner”
Could Win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks”(HBO Max) — “A Slippery Slope”
Other nominees: Janicza Bravo, The Bear (FX on Hulu) — “Worms;” Christopher Storer, The Bear (FX on Hulu) — “Bears;” Mike White, The White Lotus (HBO) — “Denials”
Limited or Anthology Series
Will Win: Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit (Netflix) — “The Black Rabbits”
Could Win: Shannon Murphy, Dying for Sex (FX on Hulu) — “It’s Not That Serious”
Other nominees: Antonio Campos, The Beast in Me (Netflix) — “Sick Puppy;” Ally Pankiw, Black Mirror (Netflix) — “Common People;” Lesli Linka Glatter, Zero Day (Netflix) — “Episode 6”
Movies for Television
Will Win: Jesse Armstrong, Mountainhead (HBO Max)
Could Win: Michael Morris, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)
Other nominees: Scott Derrickson, The George (AppleTV+), Kyle Newacheck, Happy Gilmore 2 Netflix), Stephen Chbosky, Nonnas (Netflix)
Variety Series
Will Win: Liz Patrick, SNL50: The Anniversary Special (NBC)
Could Win: Beth McCarthy Miller. SNL50: The Homecoming Concert (Peacock)
Other nominees: Andy Fisher, Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — “Stephen Colbert; Kumail Nanjiani; Reneé Rapp;” Paul Pennolino, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, “Public Media” (HBO Max); Yvonne De Mare, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “Julia Roberts; Sam Smith” (CBS)
Sports
Will Win: Matthew Gangl, 2025 World Series — Game 7 – Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Fox Sports)
Could Win: Rich Russo, Super Bowl LIX – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Fox Sports)
Other nominee: Steve Milton, 2025 Masters Tournament – Augusta National Golf Club (CBS Sports);
Reality, Quiz or Game
Will Win: Mike Sweeney, Conan O’Brien Must Go (HBO Max) — “Austria”
Could Win: Adam Sandler, The Price is Right, “10,000th Episode” (CBS)
Other nominee: Lucinda M. Margolis, Jeopardy! (Syndicated) — “Episode 9341”
Documentary Series or News
Will Win: Matt Wolf, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max) — “Part 1”
Could Win: Rebecca Miller, “Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV+) — “All This Filming Isn’t Healthy”
Other nominees: Susan Lacy and Jessica Levin’ Billy Joel: And So It Goes, “Part Two” (HBO Max); Marshall Curry, SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night, “Written By: A Week Inside the SNL Writers Room” (Peacock), Alexandra Stapleton, Sean Combs: The Reckoning, “Official Girl” (Netflix)
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Commercials
Will Win: Spike Jonze — Apple’s “Someday”
Could Win: Kim Gehrig — Nike’s “You Can’t Win. So Win.” and Apple’s “I’m Not Remarkable”
Other nominees: Steve Rogers — Amazon’s “Bring a Book to Life, Squarespace’s “A Tale as Old as Websites” and Coinbase’s “Everything is Fine;” Andreas Nilsson – Andrex’s “Conquer the First School Poo,” Apple iPhone 16 Pro’s “Garrett,” Apple iPhone 16 Pro’s “Big Flex” and Virgin Media’s “Trunk Trucker”
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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