FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Like the men in supporting actor, their women counterparts in supporting actress have gotten a wealth-spread of precursors that even more inconclusive.
While Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) was able to secure the two industry prizes, here they’ve been split between Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) at BAFTA and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at SAG. By itself, SAG has a stellar record for eventual Oscar winners but you’d have to go back to Penélope Cruz in 2008’s Vicky Christina Barcelona to find a supporting actress winner who was the sole nomination for her film (it’s happened eight times overall). Add that Madigan missed BAFTA and things start to feel a bit precarious. Go one step further and you can find industry veterans awarded at SAG who miss the Oscar (Lauren Bacall, Ruby Dee, Gloria Stuart). Sometimes, but not always, to contenders in stronger films, but at the very least in a Best Picture nominee. Madigan is the only nominee here not in a Best Picture contender but as a previous nominee a whopping 40 years ago, she brings a history and a legacy that one else in her category can.
Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Mosaku both present nominees not only in stronger films, but the top two of the season, both in the hunt for Best Picture and each with fellow co-stars nominated. For Mosaku, Michael B. Jordan just won SAG and the pair are the film’s romantic duo. While she missed the Globe as a precursor, her BAFTA win is strong and I don’t really fall for the ‘hometown’ element as an overarching reason for her win. But, for all of the strength that Sinners showed at SAG, and with the growing expectation some people have for it as a Best Picture winner, it’s surprising she wasn’t able to take this as well. Same goes for Taylor, especially with her second main co-star Penn winning and their film breaking the SAG nomination total. Still, that win for Penn is a boost for her as much as Jordan’s is for Mosaku, putting them in a dead heat.
As far as the Sentimental Value gals go, sorry, I have nothing for you but it’s an honor just to be nominated.
In a race this split, there are so many ways to go and I think any one of Madigan, Taylor or Mosaku can win and one of them will. In the history of the Academy Awards, we’ve seen dual supporting performance wins from the same film nine times, with three of them coming from the eventual Best Picture winner (2022, 1961, 1953). For lead and supporting wins from the same film we’ve seen it happen 22 times with eight of them being in Best Picture winners. Only twice ever has it been Best Actor/Supporting Actress; 46 years ago with 1979’s Kramer vs. Kramer and 74 years ago with 1951’s On the Waterfront. Both won Best Picture.
I’m going with Madigan, who was able to take a juicy but traditionally very un-awardsy role and spin it into potential Oscar success. While we just saw a similar trajectory last season with Demi Moore, that was a different category and voters can find themselves feeling more freed here. Madigan created not only one of the year’s most memorable characters in Aunt Gladys but one I think will live on for decades, not dissimilar to Marisa Tomei’s surprise win over 30 years ago for My Cousin Vinny, which we still quote and reference to this day. Her famous Oscar moment in 1999, refusing to stand or clap for Elia Kazan’s Honorary Oscar (alongside husband Ed Harris) was met with divisiveness at the time but if her name is called on March 15, the entire room will stand up for her.
Here are my final winner predictions in Supporting Actress for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.
| 1. Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, SAG |
| 4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
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