2027 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (May)
The Cannes Film Festival begins this week and I’m getting these under the wire just before anything officially screens. Since 2019’s Parasite, the 79-year-old festival has seen its major premieres and award winners embraced by the new Academy, one that’s become far more international than ever with the last three years in a row featuring at least two largely non-English language films in Best Picture, five of them having their kick off in Cannes.
And just like last year, NEON is going into the festival with the lion’s share of comp titles, six of the 22. Its domination last year saw the two-time Best Picture-winning studio bring home the Palme (It Was Just an Accident), Grand Prize (Sentimental Value), Jury Prize (Sirāt), Best Director and Best Actor (The Secret Agent). All went on to earn multiple Oscar nominations with Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent nominated for Best Picture. Having had the Palme winner for a history-making six years in a row, it’s not hard to think they could keep the streak going.
This year, NEON has the new film from Cristian Mungiu (Fjord), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden) and Hirokazu Kore-eda (Sheep in a Box), among others. They could very well build another awards slate from the festival, but MUBI is back in the game with Fatherland, starring Sandra Hüller and directed by Paweł Pawlikowski. There are also high profile titles without distribution that will surely be hotly contested, and that’s Minotaur from Andrey Zvyagintsev, The Black Ball from Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, Coward from Lukas Dhont and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs. With Netflix not able to buy early due to the the festival’s strict theatrical release policy, if the streamer wants to find a place to plant their flag among the films available once the festival is said and done, that’s where it will likely be. That is, if they’re still available.
Outside of the upcoming Cannes selections there’s a high likelihood that by season’s end we’ll have three major studio blockbusters that could also find their way in and that’s the massive hit that is Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) and the upcoming The Odyssey (Universal Pictures) and Digger (Warner Bros), the latter two from Best Picture and Best Director-winning filmmakers, Christopher Nolan and Alejandro G. Iñarrítu, respectively. I do think that PHM‘s Phil Lord and Christopher Miller could struggle though, similarly to Denis Villeneuve and the Dune saga so far. Speaking of, the Academy has just one more chance to nominate him for the final film in the series with Dune: Messiah coming this December. And hey, don’t count out The Devil Wears Prada 2 as it looks to end up around $700M, a stunning number.
I’m also choosing to hold off on films that are TBD for distribution at the moment. But you’ll find those in the ‘Next up’ sections for now.
Here are my very early 2027 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for May.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. The Odyssey (Universal Pictures) |
| 2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
| 3. Digger (Warner Bros) |
| 4. Fjord (NEON) |
| 5. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 6. Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros) |
| 7. Fatherland (MUBI) |
| 8. The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia) |
| 9. All of a Sudden (NEON) |
| 10. Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features) |
Next up: The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix), Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures), Being Heumann (Apple Original Films), The Black Ball (TBD), Coward (TBD), Cry to Heaven (TBD), The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios), Hope (NEON), Jack of Spades (TBD), Michael (Lionsgate), Minotaur (TBD), Paper Tiger (NEON), Saturn Return (Netflix), Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures), Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy aka No One Cares (A24)
The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
All of a Sudden (NEON)
Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures)
Being Heumann (Apple Original Films)
The Beloved (TBD)
Billion Dollar Spy (Lionsgate)
The Birthday Party (TBD)
Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Black Ball (TBD)
Bunker (TBD)
By Any Means (TBD)
Coward (TBD)
Cry to Heaven (TBD)
The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios)
Digger (Warner Bros)
Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures)
The Dog Stars (20th Century Studios)
Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros)
The Echo Chamber (TBD)
Fatherland (MUBI)
Fight for 84 (Netflix)
Fjord (NEON)
The Great Beyond (Warner Bros)
Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hope (NEON)
Hot Spot (Focus Features)
I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM Studios)
I Swear (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jack of Spades (TBD)
Josephine (Summerian Films)
The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD)
A Long Winter (TBD)
Michael (Lionsgate)
Minesis (TBD)
Minotaur (TBD)
Moulin (TBD)
The Most Intimate Betrayal (Netflix)
The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Paper Tiger (NEON)
Parallel Tales (TBD)
Photograph 51 (TBD)
Possible Love (Netflix)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)
Queen at Sea (TBD)
The Rays and Shadows (TBD)
Rose (MUBI)
Saturn Return (Netflix)
Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features)
The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures)
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (MUBI)
Tenzing (Apple Original Films)
The Unknown (NEON)
Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy aka No One Cares (A24)
Untitled Mike Leigh Film (Bleecker Street)
Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Christopher Nolan – The Odyssey (Universal Pictures) |
| 2. Alejandro G. Iñarrítu – Digger (Warner Bros) |
| 3. Cristian Mungiu – Fjord (NEON) |
| 4. Paweł Pawlikowski – Fatherland (MUBI) |
| 5. Martin McDonagh – Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 6. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros) |
| 7. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller – Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
| 8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – All of a Sudden (NEON) |
| 9. Aaron Sorkin – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia) |
| 10. Georgia Oakley – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features) |
Next up: David Fincher – The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix), Tony Gilroy – Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures), Sian Heder – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films), Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo – The Black Ball (TBD), Lukas Dhont – Coward (TBD), Tom Ford – Cry to Heaven (TBD), Na Hong-jin – Hope (NEON), Joel Coen – Jack of Spades (TBD), Andrey Zvyagintsev – Minotaur (MUBI), James Gray – Paper Tiger (NEON), Greg Kwedar – Saturn Return (Netflix), Alice Birch – Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures)
J. J. Abrams – The Great Beyond (Warner Bros)
Thomas Alfredson – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
Pedro Almodóvar – Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics)
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo – The Black Ball (TBD)
Andres Baiz – Fight for 84 (Netflix)
Kaouther Ben Hadia – Minesis (TBD)
Alice Birch – Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures)
Kenneth Branagh – The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD)
Elegance Bratton – By Any Means (Paramount Pictures)
Joel Coen – Jack of Spades (TBD)
Beth de Araujo – Josephine (Summerian Films)
Lukas Dhont – Coward (TBD)
Jesse Eisenberg – Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy aka No One Cares (A24)
Asghar Farhadi – Parallel Tales (TBD)
Peter Farrelly – I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM Studios)
David Fincher – The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
Tom Ford – Cry to Heaven (TBD)
Xavier Giannoli – The Rays and Shadows (TBD)
Tony Gilroy – Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures)
James Gray – Paper Tiger (NEON)
Andrew Haigh – A Long Winter (TBD)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – All of a Sudden (NEON)
Arthur Harari – The Unknown (NEON)
Sian Heder – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films)
Hong Won-ki – Perfect Girl (TBD)
Tom Hooper – Photograph 51 (TBD)
Alejandro G. Iñarrítu – Digger (Warner Bros)
Hirokazu Kore-eda – Sheep in a Box (NEON)
Greg Kwedar – Saturn Return (Netflix)
Lee Chang-dong – Possible Love (Netflix)
Mike Leigh – Untitled Mike Leigh Film (Bleecker Street)
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller – Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)
Martin McDonagh – Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
Santiago Mitre – The Most Intimate Betrayal (Netflix)
Cristian Mungiu – Fjord (NEON)
Lea Mysius – The Birthday Party (NEON)
Na Hong-jin – Hope (NEON)
Laszlo Nemes – Moulin (TBD)
Christopher Nolan – The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Georgia Oakley – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features)
Andrea Pallaoro – The Echo Chamber (TBD)
Paweł Pawlikowski – Fatherland (MUBI)
Jennifer Peedom – Tenzing (Apple Original Films)
Ira Sachs – The Man I Love (TBD)
Jane Schoenbrun – Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (MUBI)
Markus Schleinzer – Rose (MUBI)
Ridley Scott – The Dog Stars (20th Century Studios)
Agnieszka Smoczynska – Hot Spot (Focus Features)
Aaron Sorkin – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Rodrigo Sorogoyen – The Beloved (TBD)
Steven Spielberg – Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros)
Florian Zeller – Bunker (TBD)
Andrey Zvyagintsev – Minotaur (MUBI)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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