2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (June)
Academy Award winner Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) might be finding himself back in the Oscar race with Thirteen Lives (trailer), one of a few narrative versions of the story of the young boys from Thailand who were trapped in a flooding underground cave with their soccer coach in a story that captured the world’s attention. Its one-week July qualifying release from Amazon/MGM/UAR then set to premiere on Prime Video on August 5 is certainly a risky one, but seems to be taking a page from last season’s Oscar winner CODA, also an August release that didn’t depend on fall festivals to buoy its prospects.
As mentioned in Best Actress and Supporting Actor, Searchlight Pictures has moved Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos to 2023 so he is dropped from this season’s race. On that front, after some confusion about the release of Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, starring Brendan Fraser, A24 confirmed with me this morning that the film will indeed be a 2022 release with a release date TBA, keeping Aronofsky in the race. Other films, like Empire of Light from Sam Mendes (also Searchlight) and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (from Apple), are still to be announced as releases this year both directors have proven fast post-production turnarounds, albeit with varying degrees of awards success.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for June 2022.
Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
6. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – 2022 or 2023?
8. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) ↑
9. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↑
10. Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) ↑
11. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
12. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
13. Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON) ↑
14. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
15. Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
16. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
17. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures)
18. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
19. John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix) ↑
20. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
Other contenders (alphabetical):
- Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
- David O. Russell – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
- James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
- Andrew Dominick – Blonde (Netflix)
- Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
- Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Benjamin Millepied – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Stephen Williams – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
- Alex Garland – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
- Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
- David Cronenberg – Crimes of the Future (NEON)
- Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
- Ari Aster – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
- Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
- Eva Longoria – Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
- Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Guy Nattiv – Golda (Bleecker Street)
- Tobias Lindholm – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
- Peter Farrelly – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
- Audrey Diwan – Happening (IFC Films)
- Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
- David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
- Oliver Hermanus – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Mark Mylod – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
- Dev Patel – Monkey Man (Netflix)
- Jimmy Chin & Elizabet Chai Vasarhelyi – Nyad (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- Scott Cooper – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
- Michael Grandage – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
- Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
- Rodrigo Garcia – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
- Lisa Neugerbauer – Red, White, Water (A24)
- George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix)
- Kelly Reichardt – Showing Up (A24)
- Johan Renck – Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
- Sally El-Hossaini – The Swimmers (Netflix)
- Michael Showalter – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
- Chinonye Chukwu – Till (MGM/UAR)
- George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)
- Gareth Edwards – True Love (20th Century Studios)
- Sebastian Lellio – The Wonder (Netflix)
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
Without distribution
- Paula Ortiz – Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
- Wes Anderson – Asteroid City – TBD
- Arnaud Desplechin – Brother and Sister – TBD
- Joachim Back – Corner Officer – TBD
- Felix van Groeningen & Charlotte Vandermeersch – The Eight Mountains – TBD
- James Napier Robertson – Joika – TBD
- Stephen Frears – The Lost King – TBD
- Cedric Jimenez – November – TBD
- John Slattery – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
- John Trengove – Manodrome – TBD
- Damian Szifron – Misanthrope – TBD
- Alice Winocour – Revoir Paris – TBD
- Rebecca Miller – She Came to Me – TBD
Photo: Vince Valitutti / Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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