2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (September)

We’ve already talked about how rich Best Actress is this season (and then added yet another contender in Michelle Williams) but Best Director is a veritable feast of possibilities from previous winners and nominees, hungry first-timers, the ‘non-English language film director’ slot that’s become almost de rigueur now and the women that could follow Chloe Zhao and Jane Campion to what is still a very elite group of female winners.

Hard not to keep Spielberg at the top, but early frontrunner status probably won’t do him any favors. His two previous Best Director wins were brutal films with a high technical level of difficulty and The Fabelmans, while a personal story, feels like more traditional, softer Spielberg. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) rises and I think the fight for the non-American director to break in is going to be an interesting battle between Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness (well respected in the industry) – even though his film is in English – and Park Chan-wook for his femme fatale noir thriller Decision to Leave. Östlund won the Palme d’Or at Cannes this year (his second) while Park won Best Director so there’s a challenge to be had in this race this season.

Despite very mixed reviews, I still have faith in Alejandro G. Iñárritu with Bardo, Mexico’s pick for the International Feature Film Oscar and back by Netflix. Speaking of both of those things, Edward Berger’s direction of the Netflix-backed All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany’s Oscar pick, could absolutely break through with the Academy’s director branch if they see it.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for September 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) ↑
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
4. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
5. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑

6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
7. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) 
8. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
9. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
10. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑
11. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) 
12. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
13. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
14. Chinonye Chukwu – Till (MGM/UAR) ↑
15. Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
16. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↑
17. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
18. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros) 
19. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
20. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Ryan Coogler – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
Andrew Dominick – Blonde (Netflix)
Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
Lisa Neugerbauer – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar)
Oliver Hermanus – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
Mark Mylod – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Rodrigo García – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
S.S. Rajamouli – RRR (Raftar Creations) ♦
Sally El-Hossaini – The Swimmers (Netflix)
Sebastián Lelio – The Wonder (Netflix)

Photo: Reiner Bajo

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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