FINAL 2023 Emmy Predictions: Are the Drama Categories a Coronation for ‘Succession’ or Can ‘The White Lotus’ End Its Reign?

Even at the nomination stage the race is pretty clear: Succession vs The White Lotus. The dueling HBO shows will go head to head for the first time as the latter moved from Limited Series to Drama Series in its second season as a result of Emmy winner Jennifer Coolidge returning as Tanya.

At last year’s Emmys, Succession and The White Lotus were dominate in their respective fields, with season three of the Roy family saga earning the most acting nominations for a drama series in Emmy history (14) and The White Lotus earning 20 nominations – including 8 for acting – and winning 10, the most for a limited series since 2008’s John Adams, also from HBO. Coolidge’s return puts her in the Supporting Actress in a Drama Series category after winning the Limited Series version last year, where she could mirror Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey, who won in Miniseries (as it was called then) in 2011 then in Drama Series in 2012 when the show was given a second season.

Last year, Succession earned three directing nominations of the seven available spots (but ultimately lost out to Squid Game) and with seven places available once again there’s no reason to think it’s not going to continue to stomp its way through with three more this year, its final year, especially with three nominated shows from last season not in the race.

The only competition the Succession boys have in Supporting Actor compared to last year are…themselves. With Kieran Culkin moving up to Lead that opens the door for Alexander Skarsgård’s upgrade from Guest last year and for Alan Ruck’s Connor to finally get his due. That Culkin move makes for a very interesting lead category where previous winner Jeremy Strong is locked in but previous nominee Brian Cox, who appeared in just half of the season and with a scant amount of screentime at that after his character’s death in episode three, decided to stay in lead. The last time a show got three lead actors was…oh wait, it’s never happened before. Granted, for the first 60 years of Emmy there were only 3-5 nomination spots and while several shows nabbed two lead noms – like L.A. Law, NYPD Blue, Law & Order, ER, Six Feet Under, The West Wing and most recently, This Is Us – three has been an unachievable feat. With six nominees it’s more attainable but will voters give in to Cox’s risky placement choice and send him through or leave him lying on the floor of a private jet?

Speaking of internal competition, while Coolidge was the clear frontrunner last year, that didn’t stop voters from filling her category with no less than four of her co-stars, giving the show 5/7 spots. That could happen again, or get close to, this year where Meghann Fahey and Aubrey Plaza are sure bets, with Beatrice Grannò, Sabrina Impacciatore and Simona Tabasco ready to pounce on one of those eight slots.

But obviously there’s more than Succession and The White Lotus vying for nominations this year. The final season of Better Call Saul will make its last effort in the face of first seasons of Andor, The Last of Us and House of the Dragon while season two of Yellowjackets will try and build on the successes of its first and The Crown will try and recoup from a less than well-received fifth and penultimate season to conquer once again.

Based on the number of submissions this year, here’s how many nominations we’ll get in the top Drama categories.

• 8 slots for Drama Series from 163 submissions
• 6 slots for Drama Lead Actor from 109 submissions
• 6 slots for Drama Lead Actress from 109 submissions
• 8 slots for Drama Supporting Actor from 345 submissions
• 8 slots for Drama Supporting Actress from 312 submissions
• 6 slots for Drama Guest Actor from 102 submissions
• 6 slots for Drama Guest Actress from 80 submissions
• 7 slots for Drama Directing from 214 submissions
• 7 slots for Drama Writing from 167 submissions

Emmy nominations will be announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights – Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10 – with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.

The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.

Here are my final 2023 Emmy predictions in the top Drama categories.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Andor (Disney+)
• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• The Crown (Netflix)
• House of the Dragon (HBO)
• The Last of Us (HBO)
• Succession (HBO)
• The White Lotus (HBO)
• Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Other contenders: 1923 (Paramount+), Bad Sisters (AppleTV+), The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu), The Mandalorian (Disney+)

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Jeff Bridges – The Old Man (FX)
• Brian Cox – Succession (HBO)
• Kieran Culkin – Succession (HBO)
• Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC)
• Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us (HBO)
• Jeremy Strong – Succession (HBO)

Other contenders: Paddy Considine – House of the Dragon (HBO), Diego Luna – Andor (Disney+), Matthew Rhys – Perry Mason (HBO), Antony Starr – The Boys (Prime Video), Dominic West – The Crown (Netflix)

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Emma D’Arcy – House of the Dragon (HBO)
• Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets (Showtime)
• Helen Mirren – 1923 (Paramount+)
• Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
• Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO)
• Imelda Staunton – The Crown (Netflix)

Other contenders: Sharon Horgan – Bad Sisters (AppleTV+), Sophie Nélisse – Yellowjackets (Showtime), Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us (HBO), Keri Russell – The Diplomat (Netflix)

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• F. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus (HBO)
• Nicholas Braun – Succession (HBO)
• Giancarlo Esposito – Better Call Saul (AMC)
• Michael Imperioli – The White Lotus (HBO)
• John Lithgow – The Old Man (FX)
• Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO)
• Alan Ruck – Succession (HBO)
• Alexander Skarsgård – Succession (HBO)

Other contenders: Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul (AMC), Adam DiMarco – The White Lotus (HBO) Tom Hollander – The White Lotus (HBO), Theo James – The White Lotus (HBO), Jonathan Pryce – The Crown (Netflix), Rufus Sewell – The Diplomat (Netflix), Will Sharpe – The White Lotus (HBO) Matt Smith – House of the Dragon (HBO)

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• J. Smith Cameron – Succession (HBO)
• Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus (HBO)
• Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown (Netflix)
• Meghann Fahey – The White Lotus (HBO)
• Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus (HBO)
• Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets (Showtime)
• Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul (AMC)

Other contenders: Carol Burnett – Better Call Saul (AMC), Ann-Marie Duff – Bad Sisters (AppleTV+), Beatrice Grannò – The White Lotus (HBO), Sabrina Impacciatore – The White Lotus (HBO), Lesley Manville – The Crown (Netflix), Haley Lu Richardson – The White Lotus (HBO), Simona Tabasco – The White Lotus (HBO)

Guest Actor in a Drama Series

• Murray Bartlett – The Last of Us (HBO)
• Bryan Cranston – Better Call Saul (AMC)
• James Cromwell – Succession (HBO)
• Arian Moayed – Succession (HBO)
• Nick Offerman – The Last of Us (HBO)
• Andy Serkis – Andor (Disney+)

Other contenders: Giancarlo Esposito – The Mandalorian (Disney+), Jon Gries – The White Lotus (HBO), Justin Kirk – Succession (HBO), Aaron Paul – Better Call Saul (AMC)

Guest Actress in a Drama Series

• Hiam Abbass – Succession (HBO)
• Claire Foy – The Crown (Netflix)
• Melanie Lynskey – The Last of Us (HBO)
• Fiona Shaw – Andor (Disney+)
• Anna Torv – The Last of Us (HBO)
• Harriet Walter – Succession (HBO)

Other contenders: Aya Cash – The Boys (Prime Video), Hope Davis – Succession (HBO), Cherry Jones – Succession (HBO), Vanessa Kirby – The Crown (Netflix)

Directing for a Drama Series

• Andor – “Rix Road,” Benjamin Caron (Disney+)
• The Last of Us – “Long, Long Time,” Peter Hoar (HBO)
• Succession – “America Decides,” Andrij Parekh (HBO)
• Succession – “Connor’s Wedding,” Mark Mylod (HBO)
• Succession – “Living+,” Lorene Scafaria (HBO)
• The White Lotus – “Arrivederci,” Mike White (HBO)
• Yellowjackets – “Storytelling,” Karyn Kusama (Showtime)

Other contenders: Better Call Saul – “Saul Gone,” Peter Gould (AMC); The Boys – “Herogasm,” Nelson Cragg (Prime Video); The Crown – “Mou Mou,” Alex Gabassi (Netflix); House of the Dragon – “The Heirs of the Dragon,” Miguel Sapochnik (HBO); Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: Piggyback,” The Duffer Brothers (Netflix)

Writing for a Drama Series

• Andor – “Rix Road,” Tony Gilroy (Disney+)
• Bad Sisters – “The Prick,” Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel and Brett Baer (AppleTV+)
• Better Call Saul – “Saul Gone,” Peter Gould (AMC)
• The Crown – “Gunpowder,” Peter Morgan (Netflix)
• The Last of Us – “Long, Long Time,” Craig Mazin (HBO)
• Succession – “Connor’s Wedding,” Jesse Armstrong (HBO)
• The White Lotus – “Arrivederci,” Mike White (HBO)

Other contenders: Better Call Saul – “Point and Shoot,” Gordon Smith (AMC); The Diplomat – “Lambs in the Dark,” Debra Cohn (Netflix); Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: Piggyback,” The Duffer Brothers (Netflix); Yellowjackets – “Edible Complex,” Jonathan Lisco (Showtime)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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