DGA and PGA Nomination Predictions: A Solid Top 5, Blockbusters and Maybe Room for International Fare
With the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild coming in this morning, we had our first look at where one of the main guilds was throwing their support and maybe a glimpse into where the Directors Guild, who will announce on Thursday, and the Producers Guild, who will announce on Friday, might be leaning.
For the DGA, they’re often a lot like SAG in that it’s hard to break in as an international director even if it seems like your time or even if you have a strong narrative. SAG once again denied non-English language films and performances, which only further solidified what I feel is a pretty immovable top 5 for the DGA. Anyone outside the quintet of Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners) would be pretty shocking. If there is a surprise here it will be Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value but I can’t for the life of me think of who he’d bump. I’d lean to Zhao or Safdie but to be honest, while I think they’re all going to make it, only Anderson is 100% safe.
For first-time director we once again have an embarrassment of riches with Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby), Carson Lund (Eephus), Charlie Polinger (The Plague) and Akinola Davies Jr. (My Father’s Shadow) as frontrunners here. From there it’s likely one of Sophy Romvari (Blue Heron), Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake) or Harris Dickinson (Urchin) for me.
DGA Predictions
Theatrical Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Spoiler: Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Michael Apted Award for First-Time Theatrical Feature Film
Carson Lund – Eephus
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Charlie Polinger – The Plague
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
Emilie Blichfeldt – The Ugly Stepsister
Spoilers: Sophy Romvari – Blue Heron, Hasan Hadi – The President’s Cake, Harris Dickinson – Urchin
The Producers Guild generally hovers around 8/10 for matching up with Oscar’s Best Picture 10 and even once went 10/10 (in 2023) but I don’t see that happening this year. When we look at a cross-section of various groups’ nominations, be it industry or not, and all things not being equal, shapes still start to form. We can always expect box office hits, the highest profile international title/s, critics’ favorites and even a few sequels.
With a clear top 5 of One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Frankenstein, it then becomes a matter of how will PGA voters view the success of things like Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good, films that both made a boatload of money, but less than their predecessors. Both have performed at about the guild level expected to this point but the near wipeout at SAG this morning for the latter could spell disaster. Train Dreams has had such broad support with AFI, Critics Choice, Gotham, NBR and Spirit Awards nominations or mentions that it feels relatively safe. Bugonia too, knocking out guild noms with ease, including two lead performance nods from SAG today. Even with just Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations (plus European Films Awards nods), I return to Sentimental Value as this, unlike SAG or DGA, is where it should be able to show up. I really want to predict Weapons here, definitely a great box office story but it really feels like it’s all about Amy Madigan. Even the hair and makeup team missed the Oscar shortlist, a real shocker.
PGA Predictions
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Spoilers: F1, Song Sung Blue, Weapons
Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Spoilers: The Bad Guys 2, In Your Dreams
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Motion Picture: Will it be One Award After Another or Will Voters be Sentimental? - January 8, 2026
- American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations: ‘Frankenstein,’ Marty Supreme’ Make the Cut, ‘Hamnet’ Misses - January 8, 2026
- Oscars: 317 Films Eligible for 98th Academy Awards, 201 for Best Picture - January 8, 2026
Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Motion Picture: Will it be One Award After Another or Will Voters be Sentimental? 
American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations: ‘Frankenstein,’ Marty Supreme’ Make the Cut, ‘Hamnet’ Misses 
Oscars: 317 Films Eligible for 98th Academy Awards, 201 for Best Picture 
DGA Awards: Directors Guild Nominates Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Josh Safdie, Chloé Zhao