Emmy Predictions: Drama Series categories

With the behemoth that was Game of Thrones out of the way, the Drama races find themselves quite open. After garnering a record-setting 32 nominations last year, including 10 in the acting categories, there will be a new sheriff in town later this summer.

Out in front are the third season of Netflix’s Ozark and the second season of HBO’s Succession, each of which poked holes in Game of Thrones‘ attempt to seal the all-time winner total last year by shocking in the directing and writing categories, respectively. Who could forget Jason Bateman’s face when he was announced as the winner? Perhaps the same face can be replicated by someone searching for several sites without gamstop. But there’s another contender in this race also looking for a first series win, the third season of The Crown. The first two seasons of the royal masterpiece earned 13 nominations each and season two won five, including directing and Lead Actress for Claire Foy. While the third season has an entirely new cast (Academy Award winner Olivia Colman takes over the reins and the reigns) it will no doubt be stiff upper lip competition.

As I mentioned above, a massive 10 acting slots open up this year without Game of Thrones in competition, four alone in supporting actress. That’s good news for Succession, which didn’t manage any acting noms last year but is now the default successor for the premium network. Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong look good to land lead nods with returning winners like Billy Porter (FX’s Pose) and Sterling K. Brown (NBC’s This Is Us) in the mix along with Golden Globe nominee Tobias Menzies for his first season of The Crown as Prince Philip. Don’t forget, Menzies spent some time in Westeros before landing in Buckingham Palace.

Golden Globe nominee Kieran Culkin should be able to find one in supporting, with Matthew Macfadyen standing an outside chance as well. Expect perennial nominee Jonathan Banks again (for AMC’s Better Call Saul) and multi-Emmy winner Bradley Whitford in Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale (he won in Guest with Handmaid‘s ‘hanging’ episodes last year). The two to look out for here are Ozark breakthrough Tom Pelphrey, who gave a blistering, star-making performance and Billy Crudup for The Morning Show from Apple TV+.

Lead Actress is going to be a bloodbath that would make Villanelle proud, especially as Killing Eve‘s Jodie Comer returning as the reigning champ. But, she’ll go up against an Oscar winner (Colman) and Laura Linney, an Emmy favorite in what has been regarded as her best television performance to date, and previous winner Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale). Nicole Kidman, whose Big Little Lies (HBO) moves from Limited Series (where she won) to Drama Series is going to give chase along with Jennifer Aniston in The Morning Show, who won a Screen Actors Guild award for her role.

Even with the four Game of Thrones actresses out of supporting, this category is going to be wild. We have two returning winners in Ozark’s Julia Garner, Thandie Newton from HBO’s Westworld and Ann Dowd from The Handmaid’s Tale going up against no less than Meryl Fucking Streep in Big Little Lies where she robbed and stole every moment she was in with passive aggressiveness and dinner table screams. Newly minted Oscar winner Laura Dern, who won supporting when BLL was in Limited Series isn’t giving up without a fight either.

Here are my ranked predictions in the Drama Series categories in order of likelihood.

DRAMA SERIES

01. Ozark (Netflix)
02. Succession (HBO)
03. The Crown (Netflix)
04. The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
05. Better Call Saul (AMC)
06. Big Little Lies (HBO)
07. The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

08. Killing Eve (BBC America)
09. Westworld (HBO)
10. Pose (FX)
11. This Is Us (NBC)

LEAD ACTOR – DRAMA SERIES

01. Jason Bateman – Ozark (Netflix)
02. Brian Cox – Succession (HBO)
03. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC)
04. Tobias Menzies – The Crown (Netflix)
05. Billy Porter – Pose (FX)
06. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC)

07. Jeremy Strong – Succession (HBO)
08. Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us (NBC)
09. Steve Carell – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
10. Rami Malek – Mr. Robot (USA)

LEAD ACTRESS – DRAMA SERIES

01. Olivia Colman – The Crown (Netflix)
02. Laura Linney – Ozark (Netflix)
03. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve (BBC America)
04. Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
05. Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies (HBO)
06. Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

07. Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld (HBO)
08. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve (BBC America)
09. Viola Davis – How to Get Away With Murder (ABC)
10. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

SUPPORTING ACTOR – DRAMA SERIES

01. Tom Pelphrey – Ozark (Netflix)
02. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
03. Bradley Whitford – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
04. Jonathan Banks – Better Caul Saul (AMC)
05. Josh O’Connor – The Crown (Netflix)
06. Kieran Culkin – Succession (HBO)

07. Giancarlo Esposito – Better Caul Saul (AMC)
08. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO)
09. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland (Showtime)
10. David Harbour – Stranger Things (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – DRAMA SERIES

01. Julia Garner – Ozark (Netflix)
02. Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown (Netflix)
03. Meryl Streep – Big Little Lies (HBO)
04. Janet McTeer – Ozark (Netflix)
05. Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
06. Laura Dern – Big Little Lies (HBO)

07. Thandie Newton – Westworld (HBO)
08. Fiona Shaw – Killing Eve (BBC America)
09. Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO)
10. Rhea Seehorn – Better Caul Saul (AMC)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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