AwardsWatch - FINAL 2021 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Expect big numbers for ‘The Crown,’ ‘I May Destroy You,’ The Underground Railroad,’ ‘Hacks’ and more

Yeah, it seems like the Oscars just ended a minute ago…because they kinda did. The extended Oscar season gave us no break and we jumped right into Emmy season without a blink or a breath. But here we are, just days away from the Primetime Emmy nominations.

Taking a look at the final Emmy predictions between myself and AwardsWatch TV Awards Editor Tyler Doster, and going over our video podcast predictions, we aligned, eerily, on quite a few things. Is it because there are fewer eligible shows this season and buzz has focused around seemingly just a few? I think that’s part of it. Like with the Oscars, without the benefit of face to face conversations with voters and rubbing elbows with stars as everyone pounds back free booze and finger foods, we start looking to voters’ social media and who they’re vocally supporting. It’s a small element but a piece of the puzzle nonetheless.

While it seemed like we all did nothing but consume massive amounts of television during 2020 and the first half of 2021, we ended up with fewer slots this year than last, with some back down to just five, including Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

Much of the conversation revolves around just three shows: Ted Lasso from Apple TV+ and Hacks and The Flight Attendant, both from HBO Max. Each are expected to rack up a boatload of nominations and in the case of Ted Lasso, two or three in the supporting categories. Based on submission numbers we’ll only see five spots in the lead and guest acting categories.

But several shows could also find themselves with strong numbers on nomination morning including Hulu’s Pen15, Netflix’s The Kominsky Method and even a bit of a comeback for network television with ABC’s black-ish, plus Kenan and Mr. Mayor from NBC.

There are three dramas that seem poised to really dominate the Emmy nominations when they’re announced on Tuesday, July 13 and they are: Netflix’s The Crown, Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian from Disney+. Both Tyler and I are expecting huge numbers from these shows in writing, directing and acting, with the first two possibly set to utterly dominated supporting actress.

For Limited Series, whether it’s The Queen’s Gambit, Small Axe, The Underground Railroad, WandaVision or Mare of Easttown, this season has been about sole showrunner vision. The Limited Series categories are some of the most competitive and by far the most interesting sections of the Emmys this year. While the Television Academy expanded the Drama and Comedy series and acting categories, Limited Series stayed the same with just five nominee slots for program and lead acting.

With the Emmy sliding scale of number of nominees based on submissions in full swing, that effect is made clear in the drama categories which see some with six, some with seven and supporting acting getting a whopping eight each (due to the parity rule).

With so few other returning shows due to COVID-related delays, we’re also going to see an influx of new dramas like Amazon Prime Video’s The Boys, HBO’s (now canceled) Lovecraft Country and Netflix’s Bridgerton all staking claims are major Emmy nominations. We’ll also see the farewell of FX’s Pose (can they finally get an acting nomination outside of Billy Porter?) and several Apple TV+ hopefuls searching for a spots.

Nominations for the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced by father/daughter Emmy winners Ron Cephas Jones and Jasmine Cephas Jones on Tuesday, July 13 at 8:30am PT live at emmys.com. The 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards will be broadcast live Sunday, Sept. 19 (8:00-11:00pm, EDT/5:00-8:00pm, PDT) on the CBS Television Network and available to stream live and on demand on Paramount+.

Here are the final Emmy nomination predictions from myself and Tyler Doster, in no particular order. Who do you agree with more? Who do you think is getting in and who is getting snubbed?

Outstanding Comedy Series (8)

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler
Mythic Quest (Apple TV+) – Erik

Spoilers: Cobra Kai (Netflix), Dickinson (Apple TV+), Superstore (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (5)

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Anthony Anderson, black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
Kenan Thompson, Kenan (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Ted Danson, Mr. Mayor (NBC) – Erik
William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime) – Tyler

Spoilers: Ralph Macchio, Cobra Kai (Netflix); Rob McElhenney, Mythic Quest (Apple TV+); William Zabka, Cobra Kai (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series (5)

Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Maya Erskine, Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva (Peacock); Anna Konkle, Pen15 (Hulu); Allison Janney, Mom (CBS)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (7)

Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Alex Newell, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler

Michiel Huisman, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)– Erik
Ray Romano, Made For Love (HBO Max)– Tyler

Spoilers: Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+); Laurence Fishburne, black-ish (ABC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (7)

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)– Erik, Tyler
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Juno Temple, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
Kathleen Turner, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik
Busy Phillips, Girls5Eva (Peacock)– Tyler
Paula Pell, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler

Spoilers: Naomi Ackie, Master of None (Netflix); Zosia Mamet, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max); Bette Midler, The Politician (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy (5)

Dave Chappelle, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Morgan Freeman, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

Daniel Kaluuya, Saturday Night Live (Netflix) – Erik
Anthony Head, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
Regé-Jean Page, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik
Dan Levy, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Tyler
Chris Rock, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Tyler
Bowen Yang, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler

Spoilers: Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Jim Carrey, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Stephen Colbert, Girls5Eva (Peacock)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy (5)

Issa Rae, A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
Tina Fey, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Erik, Tyler
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Anya Taylor-Joy, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Andrea Anders, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
America Ferrera, Superstore (NBC) – Tyler

Spoilers: Bernadette Peters, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) ; Susan Sarandon, Search Party (HBO Max); Vanessa Williams, Girls5Eva (Peacock)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series (6)

“Make Rebecca Great Again,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
“Pilot,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
“There is No Line (Pilot),” Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
“In Case of Emergency (Pilot),” The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
“Play,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

“Backstory!,” Mythic Quest (Apple TV+) – Erik
“Vendy Wiccany,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Pilot,” Girls5Eva (Peacock); “Moments in Love: Chapter Four,” Master of None (Netflix); “Let’s Meet,” Made for Love (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series (6)

“Biscuits,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
“Make Rebecca Great Again,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)– Erik, Tyler
“There is No Line (Pilot),” Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
“In Case of Emergency (Pilot),” The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler

“Pilot,” B-Positive (CBS) – Erik
“The Hope That Kills You,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
“#RichDadWokeDad,” Dad Stop Embarrassing Me! (Netflix) – Tyler
“Opening Night,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Pilot,” Girls5Eva (Peacock); “Backstory!,” Mythic Quest (Apple TV+); “Essential,” Superstore (NBC)

Outstanding Drama Series (8)

The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
Perry Mason (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+), In Treatment (HBO Max), Yellowstone (Paramount Network)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (6)

Josh O’Connor, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Billy Porter, Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Antony Starr, The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Nicco Annan, P-Valley (Starz); Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Pedro Pascal, The Mandalorian (Disney+); Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (6)

Emma Corrin, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Olivia Colman, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Mj Rodriguez, Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
Uzo Aduba, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Sarah Paulson, Ratched (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Brandee Evans, P-Valley (Starz); Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country (HBO); Phoebe Dynevor, Bridgerton (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (8)

Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country – Erik, Tyler
Tobias Menzies, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
Anthony Ramos, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
John Benjamin Hickey, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Justin Hartley, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Jonathan Bailey, Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik
John Lithgow, Perry Mason (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Angel Bismark Curiel, Pose (FX); Daniel Brühl, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+); Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (8)

Gillian Anderson, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Wunmi Mosaku, Lovecraft Country – Erik, Tyler
Cynthia Nixon, Ratched (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Emerald Fennell, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country (HBO); Tatiana Maslany, Perry Mason (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series (7)

“War,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
“Series Finale,” Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
“Home,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
“Sundown,” Lovecraft Country )HBO) – Erik, Tyler
“Diamond of the First Water,” Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

“What I Know,” The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
“The Wilderness,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik
“Testimony,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler
“Progress,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Jig-a-Bobo”, Lovecraft Country (HBO); “Chapter 16: The Rescue,” The Mandalorian (Disney+); “Raised by Wolves,” Raised by Wolves (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series (7)

“War,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
“Fairytale,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
“Chapter 16: The Rescue,” The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
“The Wilderness,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

“The Bloody Doors Off,” The Boys – Erik
“Testimony,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik
“Chapter 9: The Marshal”, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik
“Diamond of the First Water,” Bridgerton (Netflix) – Tyler
“Trouble Don’t Last Always,” Euphoria (HBO) – Tyler
“Vows,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Perpetratin,’” P-Valley (Starz); Chapter Two,” Perry Mason (HBO); “Raised by Wolves,” Raised by Wolves (HBO Max)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama (5)

Timothy Olyphant, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
Charles Dance, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Bill Burr, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler

Michael Angarano – This Is Us (NBC)– Erik
Courtney B. Vance, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Erik
Tony Goldwyn, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Tyler
Corey Stoll, Ratched (Netflix) – Tyler

Spoilers: T.R. Knight, Grey’s Anatomy (ABC); Patrick Dempsey, Grey’s Anatomy(ABC); Mark Hamill, The Mandalorian (Disney+)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama (5)

Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
Mckenna Grace, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

Laverne Cox, The Blacklist (NBC) – Erik
Rosario Dawson, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik
Phylicia Rashad, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik
Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix) – Tyler
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+) – Tyler
Sophie Okonedo, Ratched (Netflix) – Tyler

Spoilers: Amy Sedaris, The Mandalorian (Disney+); Loretta Devine, P-Valley (Starz); Amanda Brugel, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Outstanding Television Movie (5)

Sylvie’s Love (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Oslo (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Uncle Frank (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime) – Erik, Tyler

Christmas on the Square (Netflix) – Erik
Salt-N-Pepa (Lifetime) – Tyler

Spoilers: The Wendy Williams Story (Lifetime); Books of Blood (Hulu); Unpregnant (HBO Max)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series (5)

Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
Small Axe (Amazon) – Tyler

Spoilers: It’s a Sin (HBO Max); The Good Lord Bird (Showtime), The Undoing (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (5)

Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler
Joel Edgerton, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Hugh Grant, The Undoing (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Paul Bettany, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
Chris Rock, Fargo (FX) – Erik
Bryan Cranston, Your Honor (Showtime) – Tyler
Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule (Showtime) – Tyler

Spoilers: Olly Alexander, It’s a Sin (HBO Max); Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton (Disney+); Ewan McGregor, Halston (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (5)

Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
Nicole Kidman, The Undoing (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha (NatGeo); Kate Mara, A Teacher (FX on Hulu); Tessa Thompson, Sylvie’s Love (Amazon)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
William Jackson Harper, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Chase W. Dillon, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
John Boyega, Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler

Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik
Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik
Daveed Diggs, The Good Lord Bird (Showtime) – Tyler
Donald Sutherland, The Undoing (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule (Showtime); Calum Scott Howells, It’s a Sin (HBO Max); Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (Disney+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown – Erik, Tyler
Letitia Wright, Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Weruche Opia, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Teyonah Parris, WandaVision (Disney+); Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (Disney+); Phillipa Soo, Hamilton (Disney+)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

Mare of Easttown – Erik, Tyler
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
“Chapter 10: Mabel,” The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
It’s a Sin (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler

“Mangrove,” Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik
“Red, White and Blue,” Small Axe (Amazon) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Last Words,” The Good Lord Bird (Showtime); “Breaking the Fourth Wall,” WandaVision (Disney+); “Filmed Before a Live Studio Audience,” WandaVision (Disney+)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
“Ego Death,” I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Hamilton (Disney+); It’s a Sin (HBO Max); The Undoing (HBO)

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series (2)

Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock), How To with John Wilson (HBO Max), Ziwe (Showtime)

Outstanding Variety Talk Series (5)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) – Erik, Tyler
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central); Desus & Mero (Showtime); Conan (TBS)

Outstanding Competition Program (5)

RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) – Erik, Tyler
The Amazing Race (CBS) – Erik, Tyler
The Masked Singer (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

Nailed It! (Netflix) – Erik
Top Chef (Bravo) – Erik
Legendary (HBO Max) – Tyler
The Voice (NBC) – Tyler

Spoilers: American Idol (ABC), American Ninja Warrior (NBC), The Circle (Netflix)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.