FINAL 2022 Emmy Nomination Predictions: DRAMA SERIES categories

Erik Anderson July 6, 2022

If you thought Tyler and I aligned a lot in our comedy predictions, wait until you see some of the more surprising results here in drama.

It’s hard to say why things line up in so many categories: Drama Series, Lead Actor, Lead Actress and Directing, when we come at them from two different perspectives and with expanded nomination lineups that should all but ensure little crossover. We’ve talked before that the expanded number of slots often don’t make things easier than the traditional five, it makes them harder. That felt very true for comedy, which is far more competitive than drama in many ways. We definitely have a similar scenario in which contenders will go up against each other after either a one or two season-long hiatus (like Ozark or Stranger Things) or now have to battle against a show they haven’t fought yet. That’s on top of the freshman shows like Severance, Squid Game and Yellowjackets, and they all are looking to take down the reigning champion here, Succession.

Can Euphoria, whose first season made history with Zendaya’s Lead Actress win, go even bigger this year, its most popular? Sydney Sweeney, Colman Domingo and Martha Kelly are all in one of both of our predictions and the show seems to be right on the cusp of getting in itself. It’s toughest competition is most likely the last season of This Is Us (which has only missed here once) and the first season of Yellowjackets, one of the year’s buzziest shows. But we can’t discount the stellar guild run of previous nominee The Morning Show or SAG Ensemble nominee Yellowstone either.

Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 12 by JB Smoove, Melissa Fumero and Television Academy chairman and CEO Frank Sherma, live on emmys.com at 8:30 a.m. PST.

Here are Erik and Tyler’s final Emmy predictions in the Drama Series categories.

Outstanding Drama Series (8)

Better Call Saul (AMC) – Erik, Tyler
Ozark (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Severance (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Squid Game (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Stranger Things (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Yellowjackets (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler

Watch out for: Euphoria (HBO), The Morning Show (AppleTV+), Yellowstone (Paramount+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (6)

Jason Bateman – Ozark (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Brian Cox – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC) – Erik, Tyler
Jeremy Strong – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Watch out for: Kevin Costner – Yellowstone (Paramount+)- Tyler; Adam Scott – Severance (AppleTV+) – Erik

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (6)

Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Laura Linney – Ozark (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler
Mandy Moore – This is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
Jodie Comer – Killing Eve (AMC/BBC America) – Erik, Tyler
Zendaya – Euphoria (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Watch out for: Britt Lower – Severance (AppleTV+) – Tyler; Sandra Oh – Killing Eve (AMC/BBC America) – Erik

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (8)

Nicholas Braun – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Kieran Culkin – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Giancarlo Esposito – Better Call Saul (AMC) – Erik, Tyler
Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Oh Yeong-su – Squid Game (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
John Turturro – Severance (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul (AMC) – Erik
Alan Ruck – Succession (HBO) – Tyler

Watch out for: Eric Dane – Euphoria (HBO), Park Hae-soo – Squid Game (Netflix), Chris Sullivan – This Is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (8)

Patricia Arquette – Severance (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
J. Smith Cameron – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Julia Garner – Ozark (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler
Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Youn Yuh-jung – Pachinko (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Julianna Margulies – The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – Erik
Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria (HBO) – Tyler

Watch out for: Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things (Netflix), Glenn Close – Tehran (AppleTV+), Sadie Sink – Stranger Things (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series (6)

Adrien Brody – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
James Cromwell – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Colman Domingo – Euphoria (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Arian Moayed – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Alexander Skarsgård – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Delroy Lindo – The Good Fight (Paramount+) – Tyler
Martin Short – The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – Erik

Watch out for: Richard E. Grant – Loki (Disney+), Tom Pelphrey – Ozark (Netflix), Yul Vazquez – Severance (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series (6)

Hope Davis – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Marcia Gay Harden – The Morning Show (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Sanaa Lathan – Succession (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Lee You-mi – Squid Game (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Jacki Weaver – Yellowstone (Paramount+) – Erik, Tyler
Martha Kelly – Euphoria (HBO) – Tyler
Harriet Walter – Succession (HBO) – Erik

Watch out for: Whoopi Goldberg – Star Trek: Picard (Paramount+), Elaine May – The Good Fight (Paramount+), Jordana Spiro – Ozark (Netflix)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series (7)

Ozark – “A Hard Way to Go” (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Severance – “The We We Are” (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Stranger Things – “Dear Billy” (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Succession – “All the Bells Say”(HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Succession – “The Disruption” (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Succession – “Too Much Birthday” (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Yellowjackets – “Pilot” (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler

Watch out for: The Morning Show – “Laura” (AppleTV+) – Erik; Euphoria – “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird” (HBO) – Tyler

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series (7)

Better Call Saul – “Wine and Roses” (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Ozark – “A Hard Way to Go” (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Severance – “The We We Are” (AppleTV+) – Erik, Tyler
Squid Game – “One Lucky Day” (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
Succession – “All the Bells Say” (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
Yellowjackets – “Pilot” (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler
Better Call Saul – “A Rock and a Hard Place” (AMC) – Erik
The Gilded Age – “Face the Music” (HBO Max) – Tyler

Watch out for: Loki – “Glorious Purpose” (Disney+), Ozark – “Ellie” (Netflix), Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty – “The Swan” (HBO)

Photo: Tina Rowden/Netflix

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.