FINAL 2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR
The supporting actor race has ended up quite different from how it started. When critics’ awards began in December, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) quickly became the runaway leader, earning LAFCA and NYFCC wins among his nearly 30 critics’ wins overall this season. He nabbed the Golden Globe in early January, albeit non-televised and under deep disparaging scrutiny that the Globes are and have been, and everything seemed to be going his way. He became the season’s male fashionista nominee with everyone waiting to see what he’d be wearing next.
Then suddenly, a relatively unknown actor from a small film that was a Sundance hit but got unceremoniously dumped in August found his way into some critics’ wins of his own (10). That actor was Troy Kotsur in CODA and he alone began the groundswell for the film to become the major Oscar player it is today.
To say the tide turned is an understatement as Kotsur then dominated the rest of the precursors, winning SAG, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice in a wave similar to the year of Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird and Allison Janney in I, Tonya. Sometimes critics’ wins take you only so far and while the coldness of Smit-McPhee’s character might have played a factor in this race it’s been the funny and heartbreaking performance from Kotsur that has been an undeniable hit in this part of the season.
It’s no understatement too, to say that a win for Kotsur would be historic. His co-star, Marlee Matlin, who plays his wife in CODA, was the first deaf actor to win an Oscar, when she won Best Actress for her film debut in 1986’s Children of a Lesser God. Like Ariana DeBose and Rita Moreno over in supporting actress, this will be a rewarding full circle moment, one of worth and representation.
Here are my final Oscar predictions for Supporting Actor.
1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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- Indiana Film Journalists Association (IFJA) Awards: ‘Sinners’ Named Best Picture - December 15, 2025
- Phoenix Film Critics Society (PFCS) Awards: ‘One Battle After Another’ Wins 8 - December 15, 2025
Retrospective: Worst Picture/Best Picture – ‘Basic Instinct 2’ and ‘The Departed’ (2006) 
Las Vegas Film Critics Society (LVFCS) Nominations: ‘Sinners’ Leads with 14 
On the Shelf: ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle’ trilogy, ‘Pee-wee’s Big Adventure,’ ‘David Byrne’s American Utopia,’ ‘Walking Tall’ and the ‘Babe’ Films Arrive on 4K Blu-ray Releases for Week of December 15 
Indiana Film Journalists Association (IFJA) Awards: ‘Sinners’ Named Best Picture