FINAL 2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR

Erik Anderson March 23, 2022

The supporting actor race has ended up quite different from how it started. When critics’ awards began in December, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) quickly became the runaway leader, earning LAFCA and NYFCC wins among his nearly 30 critics’ wins overall this season. He nabbed the Golden Globe in early January, albeit non-televised and under deep disparaging scrutiny that the Globes are and have been, and everything seemed to be going his way. He became the season’s male fashionista nominee with everyone waiting to see what he’d be wearing next.

Then suddenly, a relatively unknown actor from a small film that was a Sundance hit but got unceremoniously dumped in August found his way into some critics’ wins of his own (10). That actor was Troy Kotsur in CODA and he alone began the groundswell for the film to become the major Oscar player it is today.

To say the tide turned is an understatement as Kotsur then dominated the rest of the precursors, winning SAG, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice in a wave similar to the year of Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird and Allison Janney in I, Tonya. Sometimes critics’ wins take you only so far and while the coldness of Smit-McPhee’s character might have played a factor in this race it’s been the funny and heartbreaking performance from Kotsur that has been an undeniable hit in this part of the season.

It’s no understatement too, to say that a win for Kotsur would be historic. His co-star, Marlee Matlin, who plays his wife in CODA, was the first deaf actor to win an Oscar, when she won Best Actress for her film debut in 1986’s Children of a Lesser God. Like Ariana DeBose and Rita Moreno over in supporting actress, this will be a rewarding full circle moment, one of worth and representation.

Here are my final Oscar predictions for Supporting Actor.

1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.