Final 2023 Emmy Predictions: Limited or Anthology Series and Television Movie Categories – Expect ‘Dahmer’ to Dominate
While I don’t expect any single limited or anthology series to reach the heights of The White Lotus and its 20 nominations last year (which they turned into 10 wins) I think we’ll see a few break into double digits this season but none more than Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, the most-watched limited series of the Emmy season and likely to earn the most acting nominations across the field, including previous Emmy winners Evan Peters (Mare of Easttown), Richard Jenkins (Olive Kitteridge) and Michael Learned (The Waltons, Nurse) and Emmy nominee Niecy Nash-Betts (Getting On, When They See Us). If Learned is nominated, she’ll become the woman with the longest gap between nominations – 41 years – with her last nomination being in 1982 for the drama series Nurse, which she won.
Speaking of Dahmer and records, two-time Emmy-winning director Paris Barclay (NYPD Blue) could become the first Black director to be nominated in all three distinct narrative series categories: drama, comedy, and limited series. Barclay won back-to-back Emmys in 1998 and 1999 for the police drama, earned a directing nod for The West Wing in 2002 and three in comedy directing for Glee (in 2010, 2013 and 2014). This year, he is submitted for the sixth episode of the Dahmer limited series, “Silenced.”
There are a handful of high profile movies angling for directing and writing nominations against the formidable limited and anthology series contenders like Fire Island (Hulu), Reality (HBO) and Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, which hopes to put The Roku Channel on the Emmy map. But it won’t be an easy feat; last year, not a single television movie made the cut in either directing or writing as The White Lotus, The Dropout, Dopesick, Maid and Station Eleven dominated those categories.
Based on the number of submissions this year, here’s how many nominations we’ll get in the top Limited or Anthology Series and Television Movie categories.
- 5 slots for Limited or Anthology Series from 51 submissions
- 5 slots for Television Movie from 61 submissions
- 6 slots for Limited Series/Television Movie Lead Actor from 97 submissions
- 6 slots for Limited Series/Television Movie Lead Actress from 96 submissions
- 7 slots for Limited Series/Movie Supporting Actor from 189 submissions
- 7 slots for Limited Series/Television Movie Supporting Actress from 176 submissions
- 6 slots for Limited Series/Television Movie Directing from 121 submissions
- 6 slots for Limited Series/Television Movie Writing from 111 submissions
Emmy nominations will be announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights – Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10 – with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.
The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.
Here are my final 2023 Emmy nomination predictions in the top Limited or Anthology Series or Movie categories.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Beef (Netflix)
- Black Bird (AppleTV+)
- Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Daisy Jones & the Six (Prime Video)
- Love & Death (Max)
Other contenders: The English (Prime Video), Fleishman Is in Trouble (FX), George & Tammy (Showtime), The Patient (FX), A Small Light (National Geographic)
Outstanding Television Movie
- Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic (NBC)
- Fire Island (Hulu)
- Prey (Hulu)
- Reality (HBO)
- Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku)
Other contenders: Boston Strangler (Hulu), Father of the Bride (Max), Reno 911!: It’s a Wonderful Heist (Comedy Central), Rye Lane (Hulu)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Taron Egerton – Black Bird (AppleTV+)
- Evan Peters – Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (FX)
- Daniel Radcliffe – Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku)
- Chaske Spencer – The English (Prime Video)
- Ben Whishaw – This Is Going to Hurt (AMC)
- Steven Yeun – Beef (Netflix)
Other contenders: Steve Carell – The Patient (FX), Billy Crystal – Mr. Saturday Night: A New Musical Comedy (BroadwayHD), Ewan McGregor – Obi-Wan (Disney+), Woody Harrelson – White House Plumbers (HBO), Michael Shannon – George & Tammy (Showtime)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Jessica Chastain – George & Tammy (Showtime)
- Dominique Fishback – Swarm (Prime Video)
- Elizabeth Olsen – Love & Death (Max)
- Sydney Sweeney – Reality (HBO)
- Rachel Weisz – Dead Ringers (Prime Video)
- Ali Wong – Beef (Netflix)
Other contenders: Emily Blunt – The English (Prime Video), Betty Gilpin – Mrs. Davis (Peacock), Katheryn Hahn – Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu), Riley Keough – Daisy Jones & the Six (Prime Video)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Murray Bartlett – Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)
- Rodney Burford Jr. – Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Domhnall Gleeson – The Patient (FX)
- Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird (AppleTV+)
- Richard Jenkins – Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Ray Liotta – Black Bird (AppleTV+)
- Jesse Plemons – Love & Death (Max)
Other contenders: Young Mazino – Beef (Netflix), Justin Theroux – White House Plumbers (HBO), Bowen Yang – Fire Island (Hulu)
Outstanding Supporting Actress Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Maria Bello – Beef (Netflix)
- Olivia Colman – Great Expectations (FX)
- Claire Danes – Fleishman Is in Trouble (FX)
- Michael Learned – Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Niecy Nash-Betts – Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Lily Rabe – Love & Death (Max)
- Merritt Wever – Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)
Other contenders: Jennifer Ehle – Dead Ringers (Prime Video), Judy Greer – White House Plumbers (HBO), Lena Headey – White House Plumbers (HBO), Cherry Jones – Five Days at Memorial (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Beef – “Figure of Light,” Lee Sung Jun (Netflix)
- Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Episode One/Bad Meat,” Carl Franklin (Netflix)
- Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Silenced,” Paris Barclay (Netflix)
- Love & Death – “Ssssshh,” Lesli Linka Glatter (Max)
- A Small Light – “Pilot,” Susanna Fogel (National Geographic)
- Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, Eric Appel (Roku)
Other contenders: Black Bird – “Pilot,” Michaël Roskam (AppleTV+); Daisy Jones & the Six – “Track 1: Come and Get It (Pilot),” James Ponsoldt (Prime Video); Dead Ringers – “One,” Sean Durkin (Prime Video); Fire Island, Andrew Ahn (Hulu); Fleishman Is in Trouble – “Me-Time,” Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Farris (FX), Reality, Tina Satter (HBO); Swarm – “Stung,’ Donald Glover (Prime Video)
Outstanding Writing Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Beef – “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech In Pain,” Lee Sung Jin (Netflix)
- Black Bird – “The Place I Lie,” Dennis Lehane (AppleTV+)
- Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Episode One/Bad Meat,” Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan (Netflix)
- Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Silenced,” David McMillan and Janet Mock (Netflix)
- Fleishman Is in Trouble – “Me-Time,” Taffy Brodesser-Akner (FX)
- Love & Death, David E. Kelley (Max)
Other contenders: Daisy Jones & the Six – “Track 5: Fire,” Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (Prime Video); Fire Island, Joel Kim Booster (Hulu); Reality, Tina Satter and James Paul Dallas (HBO); A Small Light – “Pilot,” Joan Rater and Tony Phelan (National Geographic); Swarm – “Stung,” Janine Nabers and Donald Glover (Prime Video)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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