FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

With the BAFTA, Critics Choice and USC Scripter in hand (and likely the WGA but those aren’t happening until a full month after the Oscars), Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction looks very secure for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar.

That isn’t to say there can’t be an upset from presumptive Best Picture winner Oppenheimer, especially if that film is also winning director, best actor and best supporting actor among its inevitable technical win haul as well. Or Barbie, for that matter. Despite being nominated in original at WGA as well as winning being nodded their in other circles, the Academy decided there was enough source material to warrant it only allowed to compete in adapted and here it is (this happened rather famously to 2016’s Moonlight, which won here then Best Picture). As the only place to reward Greta Gerwig (she’s not a producer and didn’t make the best director cut), voters who really love the Barbie origin story, the speech by America Ferrera that was enough to get her a surprise nomination and/or feel Gerwig was unrightfully snubbed may want cast their ballot for her here.

We’ve seen some pretty big upsets in adapted screenplay before, where a film storms through the precursors and the Academy does an about face on Oscar night. 2009’s Up in the Air won BAFTA, Critics Choice, the Golden Globe, USC Scripter and WGA all to lose to Precious at the Academy Awards. Early in the campaign director Jason Reitman maintained the script he shot was adapted and written solely by him and that he shouldn’t have to share credit with fellow nominee and winner Sheldon Turner. The two went to WGA arbitration who decided both would be awarded credit for adapting the Walter Kirn novel even though they never collaborated and wrote completely separate drafts. Despite Reitman and Turner doing their best to keep the flames of their fight down to an ember, this is often cited as the reason, or a main reason, for their defeat at the Oscars.

But in the case of American Fiction it’s the type of film that would be the upset, not the one who misses out in the final stretch. There’s also the TIFF People’s Choice winner factor. There’s been a very solid run of the winner there, where American Fiction triumphed, earning at least one Oscar. While The Fabelmans poked a hole in that stat, it might be the exception rather than a new rule.

Original Screenplay, before Barbie‘s exit, for quite a while had been seen as between Celine Song’s Past Lives and David Hemingson’s The Holdovers, both first screenplays. Past Lives had been the little indie that could, premiering at Sundance 2023 while last year’s Oscar nominations were happening and getting a summer release from A24. But critics kept the film afloat among the sea of contenders that the summer and fall festivals brought, including Alexander Payne’s holiday dramedy, a hit at Telluride, Toronto all throughout awards season. Then something interesting happened at the Golden Globes. Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s marriage story of (possible) murder and (definitely) mayhem of the French court system won the Globe for best screenplay. By this time we knew that France had opted for The Taste of Things as its official Oscar submission over Triet’s Palme d’Or winning drama and although critics groups don’t have to abide by any submission rules and overwhelmingly chose it as their international feature film/foreign film pick, this Globe win opened the gates for more. When the Oscar nominations were announced and Anatomy of a Fall grabbed this, film editing, best actress, best director and best picture, the path became clearer. Then came the BAFTA win last month. It’s beaten the other nominees here (Past Lives, The Holdovers, Maestro and May December) whenever they’ve come head to head and this, like American Fiction in adapted, will be voters best and most likely place to reward the film.

The screenplay categories have often been a place for voters to step outside of their Best Picture choices, even both in the same year. 2020 saw The Father and Promising Young Woman take them, 2017’s Call Me By Your Name and Get Out won as their films’ sole awards, as did 2011’s The Descendants and Midnight in Paris.

With the WGA not revealing winners until a full month after the Oscars they’re not a proper precursor here (but their strict eligibility rules keeps them from being that anyway; Oscar nominees Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest, for example) but I’m listing those that earned nominations there.

Here are my ranked final 2024 Oscar predictions for Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

*nominated in Original Screenplay before Academy switch to Adapted

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY