FINAL 2025 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Is ‘Matlock’ Poised to Break the Network Curse?

With Emmy nominations imminent, it’s time to take one last look at the possible nominees that will be announced on Tuesday, July 15th by Brenda Song (Running Point) and Harvey Guillèn (What We Do in the Shadows) in the drama, comedy, limited series and reality/talk/variety series categories.

The Pitt will likely see a plethora of nominations on Tuesday, the series being a critical and audience hit that has garnered plenty of attention this year. A water cooler series that benefited greatly from word-of-mouth and social media attention, the HBO Max drama has the potential to receive more nominations than any other show this year. The show, which just received four nominations for the TCA (Television Critics Association) Awards, will just be in competition with its peers – Golden Globes happened before the show premiered, while only a few episodes had come out before the Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations earlier this year. Noah Wyle, the sole acting nomination at the TCA Awards, will also be nominated in the Lead Actor in a Drama category as the frontrunner. The supporting actors of the show will crowd the Supporting categories with performances from The White Lotus filling in most of the rest. Those two shows alone will see that HBO and the now renamed HBO Max will have a great morning on Tuesday, especially with last year’s juggernaut, Shōgun from FX, ineligible this year since it hasn’t yet produced a sophomore season. 

TCA Award nominations also show where the love is from television critics across the country: Severance. The Apple series will do big numbers for its second season, which lead TCA Award nominations with five nominations that include Individual Achievement in Drama for both Adam Scott, Tramell Tillman and Britt Lower. The voting body also gave nominations in the same category for two performers from Adolescence: Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper. The group also gave nominations to fan-favorite Interview with the Vampire, which – aside from a massive fanbase – could walk away from July 15th empty-handed. It’s eye-opening to see perspectives from television critics right before nominations are revealed, just in time to see if the Television Academy feels the same about these shows. Shows seeing multiple nominations like Hacks, Andor, The Studio, and Adolescence will see even more from the Television Academy.

Matlock is a network drama that is making waves, having been nominated at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards earlier this year for its leading actress, Kathy Bates, who also won Critics Choice for her performance. The TCA Awards nominated the show for Outstanding Drama Series, Outstanding New Program, and Individual Achievement in Drama for Bates. If the CBS procedural is nominated, it will be the first time that a network drama has made the series cut since This Is Us in 2021.

Hacks, which won the Golden Globe earlier this year for Best Comedy, will keep its run of nominations going for its fourth season with Jean Smart securing her fourth straight nomination in the Lead Actress category – Smart has won the Emmy for this role three times, also securing two TCA Awards wins, two Golden Globes, and three SAG Awards along the way. It’s safe to say Smart will be back this year. She’ll be joined by Ayo Edebiri from The Bear, who joined Smart earlier this year in both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards categories. The SAG Awards also handed major awards to Only Murders in the Building, which could mean that the Hulu original is getting closer to winning Outstanding Comedy Series. Nobody Wants This is another comedy series that grabbed big nominations at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards earlier this year.

You can watch the live Emmy nominations announcement on the Television Academy website or YouTube page at 8:30am PT on Tuesday, July 15.

Here are my final predictions for nominations at the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards: 

Outstanding Drama Series

Andor (Disney+)

The Diplomat (Netflix)

The Last of Us (HBO)

Matlock (CBS)

The Pitt (HBO Max)

Severance (AppleTV+)

Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

The White Lotus (HBO)

Other contenders: Yellowjackets (Showtime); Squid Game (Netflix); Interview with the Vampire (AMC+); House of the Dragon (HBO)

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

The Bear (FX)

Hacks (HBO Max)

Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

The Rehearsal (HBO)

The Studio (AppleTV+)

What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Other contenders: Shrinking (AppleTV+); Overcompensating (Prime Video); Agatha All Along (Disney+); English Teacher (FX)

Outstanding Limited Series

Adolescence (Netflix)

Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Dying for Sex (FX)

The Penguin (HBO Max)

Say Nothing (FX)

Other contenders: Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix); Black Mirror (Netflix); Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us (HBO)

Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)

Adam Scott, Severance (AppleTV+)

Noah Wyle, The Pitt (HBO Max)

Other contenders: Sterling K. Brown, Paradise (Hulu); Diego Luna, Andor (Disney+); Billy Bob Thornton, Landman (Paramount+)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Kathy Bates, Matlock (CBS)

Britt Lower, Severance (AppleTV+)

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO)

Keri Russell, The Diplomat (Netflix)

Other contenders: Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Kaitlin Olson, High Potential (ABC); Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Seth Rogen, The Studio (AppleTV+)

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)

Other contenders: Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside (Netflix); Brian Jordan Alvarez, English Teacher (FX); Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Uzo Aduba, The Residence (Netflix) 

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)

Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)

Other contenders: Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face (Peacock); Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along (Disney+); Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Colin Farrell, The Penguin (HBO Max)

Stephen Graham, Adolescence (Netflix)

Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror (Netflix)

Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)

Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)

Other contenders: Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix); Colman Domingo, The Madness (Netflix); Bryan Tyree Henry, Dope Thief (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Cristin Milioti, The Penguin (HBO Max)

Lola Petticrew, Say Nothing (FX)

Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex (FX)

Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)

Other contenders: Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar (Netflix); Meghan Fahy, Sirens (Netflix); Natalie Portman, Lady in the Lake (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Patrick Ball, The Pitt (HBO Max)

Zach Cherry, Severance (AppleTV+)

Walton Goggins, The White Lotus (HBO)

Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus (HBO)

Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus (HBO)

Tramell Tillman, Severance (AppleTV+)

John Turturro, Severance (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus (HBO); Sam Nivola, The White Lotus (HBO); Christopher Walken, Severance (AppleTV+); Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Patricia Arquette, Severance (AppleTV+)

Carrie Coon, The White Lotus (HBO)

Taylor Dearden, The Pitt (HBO Max)

Allison Janney, The Diplomat (Netflix)

Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt (HBO Max)

Parker Posey, The White Lotus (HBO)

Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus (HBO)

Other contenders: Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus (HBO); Dichen Lachman, Severance (AppleTV+); Isabel Mercred, The Last of Us (HBO); Fiona Dourif, The Pitt (HBO Max)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Ike Barinholtz, The Studio (AppleTV+)

Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons (Netflix)

Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO Max)

Harrison Ford, Shrinking (AppleTV+)

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (FX)

Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders: Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This (Netflix); Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Walton Goggins, The Righteous Gemstones (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear (FX)

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max)

Kathryn Hahn, The Studio (AppleTV+)

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Catherine O’Hara, The Studio (AppleTV+)

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Meg Stalter, Hacks (HBO Max)

Other contenders: Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Patti LuPone, Agatha All Along (Disney+); Jessica Williams, Shrinking (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)

Anthony Boyle, Say Nothing (FX)

Owen Cooper, Adolescence (Netflix)

Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex (FX)

Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)

Ashley Walters, Adolescence (Netflix)

Other contenders: Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin (HBO Max); Luke Kirby, Out of My Mind (Disney+); Wagner Moura, Dope Thief (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Erin Doherty, Adolescence (Netflix)

Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin (HBO Max)

Lesley Manville, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Christine Tremarco, Adolescence (Netflix)

Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)

Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex (FX)

Other contenders: Julianne Moore, Sirens (Netflix); Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+); Angela Bassett, Zero Day (Netflix)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

“Through the Valley” – The Last of Us (HBO)

“7:00 AM” – The Pitt (HBO/MAX)

“2:00 PM” – The Pitt (HBO/MAX)

“Cold Harbor” – Severance (AppleTV+)

“Hello Goodbye” – Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

“Full-Moon Party” – The White Lotus (HBO)

Other contenders: “Dreadnought” – The Diplomat (Netflix); “Welcome to the Rebellion” – Andor (Disney+); “Episode 1” – The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

“Back to School” – Abbott Elementary (ABC)

“Napkins” – The Bear (FX)

“A Slippery Slope” – Hacks (HBO Max)

“Pilot” – Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

“The Promotion” – The Studio (AppleTV+)

“The Finale” – What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Other contenders: “Pilot” – Adults (FX); “Lake House” – The Four Seasons (Netflix); “Once Upon a Time in the West” – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); “Pilot’s Code” – The Rehearsal (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a TV Movie or Limited Series

Adolescence (Netflix)

Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

“Good Value Diet Soda” – Dying for Sex (FX)

“A Great or Little Thing” – The Penguin (HBO Max)

“The People in the Dirt” – Say Nothing (FX)

Other contenders: ; A Very Royal Scandal (Prime Video); “Bases Loaded” – Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+); Mountainhead (HBO)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

“Through the Valley” – The Last of Us (HBO)

“The Price” – The Last of Us (HBO)

“7:00 AM” – The Pitt (HBO Max)

“6:00 PM” – The Pitt (HBO Max)

“Chikhai Bardo” – Severance (AppleTV+)

“Cold Harbor” – Severance (AppleTV+)

“Amor Fati” – The White Lotus (HBO)

Other contenders: “O X” – Squid Game (Netflix); “The Queen Who Ever Was” – House of the Dragon (HBO/MAX); “Full Circle” – Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

“Death’s Hand in Mine” – Agatha All Along (Disney+)

“Napkins” – The Bear (FX)

“Tomorrow” – The Bear (FX)

“A Slippery Slope” – Hacks (HBO Max)

“Here’s To You, Mr. Schneiderman” – Mid-Century Modern (Hulu)

“The Oner” – The Studio (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: “My Best Friend’s Wedding” – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); “The Swap” – Étoile; “Please Touch Museum” – Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Outstanding Directing for a TV Movie or Limited Series

Adolescence (Netflix) 

Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

“It’s Not That Serious” – Dying for Sex (FX)

Mountainhead (HBO)

“After Hours” – The Penguin (HBO Max)

“The People in the Dirt” – Say Nothing (FX)

Other contenders: “The Verdict” – Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+): “Cent’anni” – The Penguin (HBO/MAX); Lady in the Lake (AppleTV+)

Outstanding TV Movie

Another Simple Favor (Prime Video)

Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)

Mountainhead (HBO)

Out of My Mind (Disney+)

Rebel Ridge (Netflix)

Other contenders: G20 (Prime Video)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Beau Bridges – “Pregame,” Matlock (CBS)

Scott Glenn – “Killer Instincts,” The White Lotus (HBO)

Shawn Hatosy – “9:00 PM,” The Pitt (HBO Max)

Rhys Ifans –  “Rhaenyra the Cruel,” House of the Dragon (HBO)

Ben Mendelsohn –  “Who Else Knows?” Andor (Disney+)

Forest Whitaker – “I Have Friends Everywhere,” Andor (Disney+)

Other contenders: Paddy Considine – “Smallfolk,” House of the Dragon (HBO); Benjamin Bratt – “Welcome to the Rebellion,” Andor (Disney+)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Gwendolyn Christie – “Cold Harbor,” Severance (AppleTV+)

Sydney Cole Alexander – “Who Is Alive?” Severance (AppleTV+)

Kaitlyn Dever – “Through the Valley,” The Last of Us (HBO)

Catherine O’Hara – “Future Days,” The Last of Us (HBO)

Hillary Swank – “A Normal, Boring Life,” Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Merritt Wever – “Who Is Alive?” Severance (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Jane Alexander – “Sweet Vitriol,” Severance (AppleTV+); Sandra Bernhard – “Cold Harbor,” Severance (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series 

Jon Bernthal – “Napkins,” The Bear (FX)

John Cena “Children,” The Bear (FX)

Bryan Cranston – “CinemaCon,” The Studio (AppleTV+)

Ron Howard – “The Note,” The Studio (AppleTV+)

Martin Scorsese – “The Promotion,” The Studio (AppleTV+)

Martin Short – “Host: Martin Short,”, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders:  Steve Coogan – “Lazlo’s Father,” What We Do in the Shadows (FX); Will Poulter – “Forever,” The Bear (FX); John Mulaney – “Host: John Mulaney,” Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Olivia Colman – “Forever,” The Bear (FX)

Jamie Lee Curtis – “Ice Chips,” The Bear (FX)

Greta Lee – “The Oner,” The Studio (AppleTV+)

Melissa McCarthy – “Valley of the Dolls,” Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Julianne Nicholson – “A Slippery Slope,” Hacks (HBO Max)

Jean Smart – “Host: Jean Smart,” Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders: Lady Gaga – “Host: Lady Gaga,” Saturday Night Live (NBC); Sarah Polley – “The Oner,” The Studio (AppleTV+); 

Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders: Fantasmas (HBO Max)

Outstanding Talk Series 

The Daily Show (Comedy Central)

Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Other contenders: Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney (Netflix); Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)

Survivor (CBS)

The Amazing Race (CBS)

The Traitors (Peacock)

Top Chef (Bravo)

Other contenders: Deal or No Deal Island (NBC); The Voice (NBC)