FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

As I mentioned in my December predictions, if The Perfect Neighbor is able to make it into the Oscar five it would mark a significant change in how that branch views nonfiction films entirely comprised of archival footage. The ‘Critics Choice curse’ would feel more anecdotal if it weren’t for the demonstrable evidence of it happening consistently. With a branch of this size (over 700 members) the collective mindset often seems geared towards actively denying an overwhelming frontrunner of this kind at the nomination stage, similar to how we got zero star bio-docs in the shortlist this year, another style they tend to avoid. The International Documentary Association (IDA) awarded a film that didn’t even make the shortlist cut (The Tale of Silyan) so turn our eyes to PGA nominees, Cinema Eye Honors and the BAFTA longlist. Only one film managed a spot all of them, Laura Poitras’ Cover-Up (although its IDA nod was a special mention). I’m sticking with mostly PGA-nominated films here but Netflix, which has The Perfect Neighbor, Cover-Up and Apocalypse in the Tropics could take up three spots here. There’s always room for smaller films here though, voters in this branch make sure of it, hence the ‘snub’ of so many more well-known films. It’s exactly how you might see the five and a half hour My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow over The Perfect Neighbor.

Are we getting five NEON films in the International Feature Film lineup? Not if Tunisia and Taiwan have anything to say about it. Getting past three of NEON’s mortal locks here (France’s It Was Just an Accident, Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner The Secret Agent from Brazil and Norway’s Sentimental Value) the four and five spots have room. The over-performance of Spain’s Sirāt and passion for the film from the industry folks I’ve talked to make it feel pretty secure. So who rounds out the list? The long-awaited recognition of Park Chan-wook (South Korea’s No Other Choice), the sole Netflix-backed film (Taiwan’s Left-Handed Girl), the highest profile Palestine-based film (Tunisia’s The Voice of Hind Rajab) or the very heavily marketed Belén from Argentina or Homebound from India? One thing is for sure, the Cannes Film Festival is once again unmatched in terms of producing the cream of the crop of films for this category.

Here are my final 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Documentary Feature and International Feature Film.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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