FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Feeling oddly comfortable about where I’ve landed with Supporting Actress. Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) remain the top two. Despite missing the Globe nom, Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is in and SAG’s complete snub of Sentimental Value was historically not a surprise for a non-English language film performance, but I think the Academy will rectify that with a nomination for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.

Ok, so here’s where I’m a bit wobbly. Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) or Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) all have a good claim to that last spot, Fanning seems the least likely, not even snagging a BAFTA longlist mention, but she’s in the stronger film that will be a Best Picture nominee, among other above the line mentions (same goes for A’zion). But, Grande is one of the few elements of the sequel to show continued strength so I think the space between her and A’zion is ever so slight and could go either way. Unless… A’zion’s Oscar-winning co-star Gwyneth Paltrow storms in as the Judi Dench in Belfast of this year. Honestly, it’s one of the closest versions of that comparison than we usually get but it’s still far-fetched, BAFTA longlist mention aside.

However it shakes out, Madigan’s presence will keep the 25+ year streak of at least one previous nominee or winner being among the Supporting Actress lineup. Madigan’s first and only previous nomination, also in this category, was 39 years ago, for 1986’s Twice in a Lifetime. She’ll tie Helen Hayes for the longest gap between nominations for actress in Oscar history.

Here are my final 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress.

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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