FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: VISUAL EFFECTS
I guess it’s sort of a forgone conclusion that if an Avatar film is up for visual effects, congrats to everyone else on their nomination. It’s hard, impossible really, to see something topple it so until we do, the winner this year will be Avatar: Fire and Ash.
If, and it’s a big if, there was going to be an upset, it would come from the extensive vfx done in concert with live action that both F1 and Sinners employ rather seamlessly. Each won a single prize at the Visual Effects Society (F1 for compositing, Sinners for supporting vfx) but those categories don’t spell Oscar winner when the frontrunner has run the board.
We have seen two film ssince 2011 that have won the supporting category at VES and beaten the main category winner on its way to the Oscars; 2011’s Hugo over Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2018’s First Man over Avengers: Infinity War. In both of those years we had a wide split, with BAFTA going for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 and Black Panther, in those respective years.
Here are my final winner predictions in Visual Effects for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.
| 1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century/Walt Disney); Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x7) |
| 2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x1) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean | CCA, VES (x1) |
| 4. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin | BAFTA, VES (x4) |
| 5. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal Pictures); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould | VES (x1) |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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