Forum Oscar Poll Results – September 2015: Carol, Joy, Steve Jobs Rise
The votes for the September Forum Oscar Polls are in and with it some dramatic results. August’s #1 film in Best Picture, The Danish Girl (which was tied with The Revenant) is not only not #1 anymore, it’s out of the top 10 entirely. We have not seen such a precipitous drop since the Oscar polls started last Spring. The film’s reviews and word of mouth after its Fall festival run sank the film immeasurably and that makes way for a new #1, Carol. Steve Jobs makes a huge jump from #9 to #4 and with a vote total that’s within 11 points of 1st place. The Hateful Eight, Inside Out and Beasts of No Nation all hold strong (although AW seems to be alone of predicting Beasts‘ success) and Spotlight breaks into Best Picture in a major way at #6. We lose Bridge of Spies (which could see a return after its NYFF premiere) and Suffragette this month and in their place are Brooklyn and Son of Saul.
As always, since these results come directly from votes with the forum community of AwardsWatch, you can vote. Don’t think Joy is getting in? Think Mad Max: Fury Road has a better shot? Be heard. Bookmark this page and vote every month!
BEST PICTURE
01. Carol (90%; 138 votes)
02. Joy (86%; 132 votes)
02. The Revenant (86%; 132 votes)
04. Steve Jobs (82%; 127 votes)
05. Beasts of No Nation (73%; 112 votes)
06. Spotlight (68%; 104 votes)
07. Inside Out (63%; 97 votes)
08. The Hateful Eight (48%; 74 votes)
09. Brooklyn (47%; 72 votes)
10. Son of Saul (38%; 58 votes)
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Todd Haynes (Carol) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) continue to jockey for first place in Best Director and this month it’s Iñárritu who grabs the crown. Following the downfall of The Danish Girl‘s Best Picture floppage, last month’s #4 Tom Hooper disappears from the list, making way for Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs) to land in the top 5 and newcomers László Nemes (Son of Saul) and George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) to stake a claim. David O. Russell (Joy) remains in 3rd place but with a big vote total boost that puts him within spitting distance of Haynes.
BEST DIRECTOR
01. Alejandro G. Iñárritu — The Revenant (87%; 100 votes)
02. Todd Haynes — Carol (82%; 94 votes)
03. David O. Russell — Joy (77%; 89 votes)
04. Cary Fukunaga — Beasts of No Nation (62%; 71 votes)
05. Danny Boyle — Steve Jobs (36%; 41 votes)
06. Tom McCarthy — Spotlight (33%; 38 votes)
07. László Nemes — Son of Saul (29%; 33 votes)
08. Steven Spielberg — Bridge of Spies (22%; 25 votes)
09. Quentin Tarantino — The Hateful Eight (21%; 24 votes)
10. George Miller — Mad Max: Fury Road (18%; 21 votes)
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Although Eddie Redmayne is slightly hit from the fallout of The Danish Girl he still is a major presence in Best Actor now the race is solidly between Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) and Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs). The two are tied for 1st place at the moment; Fassbender rises on the strength of Steve Jobs‘ performance at the Fall festivals but also because he’s the most recent ‘seen’ potential nominee. Johnny Depp (Black Mass) rises to #5 as a result of Don Cheadle’s Miles Ahead being pushed to 2016 (or is it?) and Beasts of No Nation‘s Abraham Attah makes a major debut at #6. Ironically, Sony Classics (presumably) bumped Miles Ahead from 2015 as to not compete with its other Best Actor biopic, I Saw the Light starring Tom Hiddleston. Hiddleston had been a staple on this chart until this month after mediocre festival reviews tanked his chances. Unlike most years where we see an overabundance of contenders in Best Actor (like last year) this season seems a bit thin and that means a chance for some surprises or latecomers here. Next month could see some competition from Matt Damon (The Martian) Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) and Will Smith (Concussion) shake up this race. Keep an eye out to for our #10, Ian McKellen in Mr. Holmes. Miramax and Roadside Attractions are pushing him hard and he’s hitting festivals and events like crazy so far this season.
BEST ACTOR
01. Leonardo DiCaprio — The Revenant (95%; 149 votes)
01. Michael Fassbender — Steve Jobs (95%; 149 votes)
03. Eddie Redmayne — The Danish Girl (89%; 140 votes)
04. Michael Caine — Youth (55%; 86 votes)
05. Johnny Depp — Black Mass (45%; 71 votes)
06. Abraham Attah — Beasts of No Nation (29%; 45 votes)
07. Géza Röhrig — Son of Saul (25%; 40 votes)
08. Tom Hanks — Bridge of Spies (13%; 20 votes)
09. Mark Ruffalo — Spotlight (11%; 17 votes)
10. Ian McKellen — Mr. Holmes (6%; 10 votes)
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After tying last month, Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) is now out in front and on her own. She passes Cate Blanchett (Carol), who may now be splitting her own votes with her leading performance in Truth, which lands her at #10. Category confusion also puts Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) in the bottom half of the top 10, Lily Tomlin (Grandma) rises a bit and Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) manages to hold on (for now) while her film disappears from every other category. Poor festival reviews for Freeheld and Our Brand Is Crisis have sunk the chances for previous Oscar winners Julianne Moore and Sandra Bullock, respectively. Sony Classics is also going to push Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van as an Oscar comeback vehicle for her. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) and Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) burst into the top 5 but watch out for Brie Larson in Room. With her film winning the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, her placement next month is set to explode. It’s also worth noting that six of the last seven films to win that award have gone onto Best Picture Oscar nominations as well.
BEST ACTRESS
01. Jennifer Lawrence — Joy (87%; 206 votes)
02. Cate Blanchett — Carol (84%; 198 votes)
03. Saoirse Ronan — Brooklyn (75%; 177 votes)
04. Carey Mulligan — Suffragette (57%; 134 votes)
05. Charlotte Rampling — 45 Years (55%; 130 votes)
06. Brie Larson — Room (49%; 116 votes)
07. Lily Tomlin — Grandma (20%; 48 votes)
08. Rooney Mara — Carol (11%; 25 votes)
08. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (11%; 25 votes)
10. Cate Blanchett– Truth (10%; 23 votes)
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The top 3 here doesn’t ever seem to change but finally a bit of shakeup with Michael Keaton (Spotlight) tying Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for 3rd place. With all of the Spotlight actors being submitted in Supporting there’s even a good chance both Keaton and Mark Ruffalo (#8) find themselves with the first double Supporting Actor nominations from one film since 1991’s Bugsy. Samuel L. Jackson holds on despite the possibility he’ll be pushed for Lead for The Hateful Eight. After a screening of the film was attending by some AwardsWatchers, they seemed pretty convinced that both Jackson and possibly Kurt Russell would or could (or should) be considered Lead performances. That didn’t stop Weinstein from getting co-lead Christoph Waltz a Supporting win for Django Unchained though. Lots of change in the bottom half of the top 10 with three newcomers to the chart and the fall of Harvey Keitel (Youth), including 8-year old Jacob Tremblay in Room. This category hasn’t seen a youngster since Haley Joel Osment’s breakthrough in 1999’s The Sixth Sense.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Idris Elba — Beasts of No Nation (94%; 105 votes)
02. Robert De Niro — Joy (74%; 83 votes)
03. Tom Hardy — The Revenant (68%; 76 votes)
03. Michael Keaton — Spotlight (68%; 76 votes)
05. Samuel L. Jackson — The Hateful Eight (57%; 64 votes)
06. Benicio Del Toro — Sicario (28%; 31 votes)
07. Harvey Keitel — Youth (26%; 29 votes)
08. Tom Courtenay — 45 Years (13%; 14 votes)
08. Mark Ruffalo — Spotlight (13%; 14 votes)
10. Jacob Tremblay — Room (10%; 11 votes)
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Does Rooney Mara (Carol) finally have some competition? Last month, Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) was 24 votes behind Mara and this month she whittles it down to just 3 votes. How did that happen? Those 25 votes Mara got in Lead probably tell the story but Winslet has also made strides based on her reviews and her performance as well as her notoriously aggressive personal campaigning. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) is now mostly settled into her fraudulent category placement and should remain in the top 3 for the rest of the season. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) breaks free of the 3-lady 5th place tie last month to land at #4. The buzz for her first ever Oscar nomination keeps growing. Diane Ladd and Isabella Rossellini (both from Joy) hold on, Jane Fonda (Youth) moves up and three new performances show up in the form of Joan Allen (Room), Julia Roberts (Secret in Their Eyes) and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Rooney Mara — Carol (90%; 149 votes)
02. Kate Winslet — Steve Jobs (88%; 146 votes)
03. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (78%; 129 votes)
04. Jennifer Jason Leigh — The Hateful Eight (52%; 86 votes)
05. Diane Ladd — Joy (52%; 85 votes)
06. Jane Fonda — Youth (28%; 47 votes)
07. Joan Allen — Room (14%; 23 votes)
08. Julia Roberts — Secret in Their Eyes (11%; 18 votes)
09. Rachel McAdams — Spotlight (10%; 17 votes)
10. Isabella Rossellini — Joy (8%; 14 votes)
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Both screenplay categories feel a bit bleak and kind of locked in at the moment. Once you get past the top 5 vote getters the numbers drop significantly, especially in Adapted. At the moment it seems like a stretch for anything other than these 10 films to hit unless The Martian really takes off in the Oscar department like it has with the box office. If Room is the breakthrough many think it is, that could find itself in Adapted, while over in Original we could see Youth or Bridge of Spies possibly moving back up.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Carol (100%; 72 votes)
02. Steve Jobs (94%; 68 votes)
03. Beasts of No Nation (81%; 58 votes)
03. The Revenant (81%; 58 votes)
05. Brooklyn (76%; 55 votes)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Joy (95%; 70 votes)
02. Spotlight (92%; 68 votes)
03. Inside Out (88%; 65 votes)
04. The Hateful Eight (82%; 61 votes)
05. Son of Saul (45%; 33 votes)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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I predict JOY will take Best Picture / Best director (time to recognize David O. Russell) and Best Actress, Lawrence of course. The Revenant definitely Cinematography (Lubezki)…then The Hateful Eight and Carol, we will see.