Frontrunner Friday 2024 Oscar Predictions: First Post-Nominations Look at the Race

The Oscar nominations for the 96th Academy Awards are in and, for the most part, without too many huge surprises (we’ll get to that), ones that really make us go back into the season, go to our color-coded Carrie Mathison working wall and wonder how we got here. Oppenheimer led, as we all knew it would, with Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon right behind. Despite each of them missing a few key nods, the tea leaves had shown themselves in the weeks leading up to nomination day.

Obviously the big talk of the day were the misses for Greta Gerwig in directing and Margot Robbie in best actress for Barbie. Within hours the discourse around each of these ‘snubs’ turned into a garbage pit of wildly nasty takes, flat out misunderstanding of voting and of individual branches and more misplaced and misused arguments disguised as feminism than a room full of men saying “Well, actually…” So I don’t think there’s much I can offer, or should offer, outside of not dismissing the fact that Gerwig is nominated for writing, Robbie is nominated for Best Picture, the directors nominated Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and actors nominated the first Indigenous Native American woman in Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), among other fantastic firsts, finallys and about times.

Best Actress remains a very interesting race, one between Emma Stone in Poor Things and Gladstone. They both won Golden Globes, Stone was Critics Choice. BAFTA will be a decisive victory for Stone as Gladstone isn’t even nominated there. That certainly gives Stone momentum going into Oscar voting just days later and this year, SAG lands right it in the middle of it. Each shared the lion’s share of critics’ wins and while many want to make the quick comparison to Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett last year, I’m not sure that’s so apt. Killers of the Flower Moon is not Everything Everywhere All At Once, it’s not a frontrunner in any other category, and Poor Things isn’t TÁR, it has more than double that film’s nominations. Also in Stone’s favor is that her film didn’t miss anything it needed for her whereas Gladstone’s did. Since 2000, only three Best Actress winners won without either a makeup or a screenplay nomination: Julianne Moore Still Alice, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side and Charlize Theron in Monster. Moore and Theron were their films’ only nomination and each came with either a ‘due’ factor or the classic ‘deglam’ element, and Bullock was in a Best Picture nominee that made $250M domestically on top of the $160M her other film made that year. It’s a random thing, to be sure, but like Mathison, we connect the dots where we can. SAG will tell us a lot; if they go for Stone then she’s all but locked for a second Best Actress win. If they go for Gladstone, the race stays a nail-biter. Now watch SAG go for Margot Robbie. Let the chaos begin.

Active members of the Academy are eligible to vote for the winners in all 23 categories beginning Thursday, February 22, through Tuesday, February 27.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10 at 4pm PT – an hour earlier than usual – at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions for the 2024 Oscars on Friday, January 26, 2024.

BEST PICTURE

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Poor Things
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. American Fiction 
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Barbie
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
2. Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
3. Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
4. The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
5. Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese

BEST ACTOR

1. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
3. Bradley Cooper in Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo in Rustin

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling in Barbie
3. Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
5. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction

BEST ACTRESS

1. Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone in Poor Things
3. Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan in Maestro
5. Annette Bening in Nyad

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
2. America Ferrera in Barbie
3. Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
4. Jodie Foster in Nyad
5. Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Barbie – Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
2. American Fiction – Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
3. Oppenheimer – Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. Poor Things – Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. The Zone of Interest – Written by Jonathan Glazer

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Anatomy of a Fall – Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
2. The Holdovers – Written by David Hemingson
3. Past Lives – Written by Celine Song
4. Maestro – Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
5. May December – Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

FILM EDITING

1. Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame
2. Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal
3. Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker
4. Poor Things – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
5. The Holdovers – Kevin Tent

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema
2. Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto
3. Maestro – Matthew Libatique
4. Poor Things – Robbie Ryan
5. El Conde – Edward Lachman

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Barbie – Jacqueline Durran
2. Poor Things – Holly Waddington
3. Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West
4. Napoleon – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
5. Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Barbie – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
2. Poor Things – Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
3. Napoleon – Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
4. Killers of the Flower Moon – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
5. Oppenheimer – Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
2. Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
3. Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
5. American Fiction – Laura Karpman

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
   Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
   Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
   Music and Lyric by Scott George
4. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
   Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
   Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

SOUND

1. Oppenheimer – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
2. Maestro – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
3. The Creator – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
4. The Zone of Interest – Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Maestro – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
2. Poor Things – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
3. Golda – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
4. Society of the Snow – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
5. Oppenheimer – Luisa Abel

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Creator – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
2. Napoleon – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
3. Godzilla Minus One – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
2. The Boy and the Heron – Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
3. Elemental – Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
4. Nimona – Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
5. Robot Dreams – Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. 20 Days in Mariupol – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President – Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
3. Four Daughters – Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
4. To Kill a Tiger – Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
5. The Eternal Memory – Nominees to be determined

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom
2. Society of the Snow – Spain
3. The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany
4. Perfect Days – Japan
5. Io Capitano – Italy

ANIMATED SHORT

1. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko – Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. Letter to a Pig – Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. Pachyderme – Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
4. Our Uniform – Yegane Moghaddam
5. Ninety-Five Senses – Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó – Sean Wang and Sam Davis
2. The ABCs of Book Banning – Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
3. The Last Repair Shop – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
4. The Barber of Little Rock – John Hoffman and Christine Turner
5. Island in Between – S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
2. The After – Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
3. Red, White and Blue – Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
4. Knight of Fortune – Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. Invincible – Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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