Frontrunner Friday 2025 Oscar Predictions: Should Auld Predictions Be Forgot?
As the year closes and we’re on the verge of BAFTA longlists (predictions here) and the Golden Globe Awards (predictions coming Monday) in the first week of January, the brakes will be off and the Oscar race will be full steam ahead.
I’ve made a few sacrificial choices between my December predictions and today’s Frontrunner Friday including some deep cuts for Dune: Part Two, dropping it from Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography, among others, making way for the likes of Nosferatu and more.
As of today, I see Emilia Pérez leading the nominations with 11, followed by The Brutalist and Conclave with 10 and Wicked with 8, with each of them missing one or more spots in some very competitive categories.
The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3, 2025 with nominations on January 15. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) will reveal their noms on January 8. Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards on Friday, December 27, 2024.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 2. Anora (NEON) | AFI, Cannes (Palme d’Or), CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | AFI, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 5. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 6. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 7. Sing Sing (A24) | AFI, CCA, Spirit |
| 8. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 9. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 10. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, EFA, GG, Spirit |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Spirit, Venice (Silver Bear) |
| 3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 4. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 5. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | CCA, Gotham |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 2. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) | CCA, EFA, GG |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | CCA |
| 5. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) | GG |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 2. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, Gotham |
| 5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | CCA, GG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | CCA |
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | CCA |
| 5. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez) | EFA |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | CCA, GG |
| 2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | CCA, GG, Sundance |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | CCA, GG |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 5. Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) Mike Leigh |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson | ACE, CCA |
| 2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | ACE, CCA |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling | ACE |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) Dávid Jancsó | CCA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Joe Walker | ACE, CCA |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | CCA |
| 2. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) Jomo Fray | CCA |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke | CCA |
| 4. Conclave (Focus Features) Stéphane Fontaine | CCA |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell | CCA, CDG |
| 2. Conclave (Focus Features) Lisy Christi | CCA, CDG |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir | CCA, CDG |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates | CCA, CDG |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Massimo Cantini Parrini | CCA, CDG |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker | CCA |
| 2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley | CCA |
| 3. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max | CCA |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Craig Lathrop | CCA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros Patrice Vermette | CCA |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 3. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | CCA, GG, SCL |
| 5. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross | CCA, GG, HMMA |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 2. “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi from The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 3. “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino from Challengers (Amazon MGM) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 4. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main), SCL |
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) |
| 4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 5. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
| 1. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, MUAH (x2) |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) | CCA |
| 4. A Different Man (A24) | CCA, MUAH |
| 5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | CCA |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, CCA |
| 3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) | Annie, CCA |
| 4. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, CCA |
| 5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) | CCA |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) | CCA, GG |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | Berlin (Berlinale Documentary Award), CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
| 2. Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), CEH, EFA, Gotham |
| 3. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA, CEH |
| 4. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | CCA, IDA |
| 5. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) | CEH, PGA, Sundance |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Cannes (Special Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), EFA |
| 5. Italy – Vermiglio (Janus Films) | EFA, GG, Gotham |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. Beautiful Men |
| 2. A Bear Named Wojtek |
| 3. Wander to Wonder |
| 4. In the Shadow of the Cypress |
| 5. A Crab in the Pool |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. I Am Ready, Warden |
| 2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine |
| 3. Incident |
| 4. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World |
| 5. Death by Numbers |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent |
| 2. An Orange from Jaffa |
| 3. Dovecote |
| 4. Anuja |
| 5. The Masterpiece |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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