Frontrunner Friday 2025 Oscar Predictions: The BAFTA Longlist January Surprise
The Golden Globe are this weekend but BAFTA sure came in and said ‘hold my beer?’ didn’t they?
The BAFTA longlists were revealed this morning and while it secured frontrunner status for films like Emilia Pérez, Conclave, Anora and The Brutalist, it cut a bit deep on some major contenders like Angelina Jolie in Maria and A Real Pain, ignoring the former and the latter warranting just two mentions.
Last year’s BAFTA longlist of 10 films ended up going 9/10 with Oscar’s Best Picture lineup, with All of Us Strangers being subbed out for American Fiction. Ironically, that film won the BAFTA on its only nomination – Best Adapted Screenplay – a feat it repeated at the Oscars among its nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Original Score. This year, Nickel Boys (also from Amazon MGM) might be looking to repeat as its sole BAFTA longlist mention is in Adapted Screenplay.
Despite missing at the Golden Globes, I’m putting Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) back in the Best Director lineup for now. He’ll likely earn a DGA nomination next week but even that won’t secure him a spot. We haven’t had an all first-time lineup in the category since 1997 but older stats than that have fallen recently. Even for a middle film, his chances are still very good and voters may be looking for a familiar name amongst the newbies.
We’ll see what happens at the Golden Globes this weekend then Critics Choice next weekend. The race is on.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards on Friday, January 3, 2025.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | AFI, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Anora (NEON) | AFI, Cannes (Palme d’Or), CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 5. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 6. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 8. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, EFA, GG, Spirit |
| 9. Sing Sing (A24) | AFI, CCA, Spirit |
| 10. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Spirit, Venice (Silver Bear) |
| 3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 4. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 5. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | CCA |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 2. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) | CCA, GG |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) | CCA, EFA, GG |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) | GG |
| 5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | CCA |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 2. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, Gotham |
| 5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | CCA, GG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | CCA |
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | CCA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert) | CCA |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | CCA, GG |
| 2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | CCA, GG, Sundance |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | CCA, GG |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 5. Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) Mike Leigh |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson | ACE, CCA |
| 2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | ACE, CCA |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling | ACE |
| 4. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Marco Costa | ACE, CCA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Joe Walker | ACE, CCA |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | CCA |
| 2. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) Jomo Fray | CCA |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke | CCA |
| 4. Conclave (Focus Features) Stéphane Fontaine | CCA |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell | CCA, CDG |
| 2. Conclave (Focus Features) Lisy Christi | CCA, CDG |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir | CCA, CDG |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates | CCA, CDG |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Massimo Cantini Parrini | CCA, CDG |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley | CCA |
| 2. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker | CCA |
| 3. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max | CCA |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Craig Lathrop | CCA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros Patrice Vermette | CCA |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 3. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross | CCA, GG, HMMA |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | CCA, GG, SCL |
| 5. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 2. “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi from The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 3. “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino from Challengers (Amazon MGM) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 4. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main), SCL |
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) |
| 4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 5. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
| 1. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, MUAH (x2) |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) | CCA |
| 4. A Different Man (A24) | CCA, MUAH |
| 5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | CCA |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, CCA |
| 3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) | Annie, CCA |
| 4. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, CCA |
| 5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) | CCA |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) | CCA, GG |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | Berlin (Berlinale Documentary Award), CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
| 2. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA, CEH |
| 3. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | CCA, IDA |
| 4. Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), CEH, EFA, Gotham |
| 5. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) | CEH, PGA, Sundance |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Cannes (Special Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), EFA |
| 5. Italy – Vermiglio (Janus Films) | EFA, GG, Gotham |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. Beautiful Men |
| 2. A Bear Named Wojtek |
| 3. Wander to Wonder |
| 4. In the Shadow of the Cypress |
| 5. A Crab in the Pool |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. I Am Ready, Warden |
| 2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine |
| 3. Incident |
| 4. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World |
| 5. Death by Numbers |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent |
| 2. An Orange from Jaffa |
| 3. Dovecote |
| 4. Anuja |
| 5. The Masterpiece |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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