Frontrunner Friday: First Take on 2026 Oscar Winner Predictions
No rest for the wicked (sorry, that’s my last one of those), it’s time for first Oscar winner predictions of the season.
The Oscar nominations gave us a lot to chew on yesterday. Most notably, the record-setting haul earned by Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with its 16 nods, more than any film in Academy history. It maxed out in every category that it could, including the Delroy Lindo in Supporting Actor nomination after he missed all precursors (outside of making the BAFTA longlist). That shows nothing but strength for the Warner Bros horror hit and it’s probably safe to say that it’s walking in the door of the Dolby with Original Screenplay, Original Score (making Ludwig Göransson a three-time winner), Cinematography (making Oscar history for Autumn Durald Arkapaw as the first woman to win) and maybe Best Casting.
Is that enough to push it to a Best Picture and Best Director win? Are Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku or Lindo win-competitive? If not, it will be the first Best Picture winner since 2017’s The Shape of Water to have all nominated actors lose. Sidebar, the Parasite comp I see floating around is not a valid one, at all. A Best Director win would make Coogler the first Black winner in that category in the Academy’s 98 years–a spectacular and important narrative–but he’ll need to win DGA in two weeks and the film needs PGA (a full month from now) for that to happen. It could happen. But, momentum and narrative have to meet and…
…it’s One Battle After Another that has both right now. Paul Thomas Anderson, now a 14-time Oscar nominee without a win, has the juice. He has the film, a singular overdue narrative, and the potential wins in place to be the Best Picture winner. But, like Coogler, a DGA win two weeks is a must. Then PGA. The film is win-competitive for SAG Cast (and the Casting Oscar) but that’s just one example where Sinners and One Battle are likely going to be 1/2 in several categories. In my estimation right now, One Battle has Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing (but this is a crucial category this year). Best Actor and Supporting Actor are on the table.
What’s fascinating, and wonderful, about the One Battle vs Sinners race (and I see it as complimentary vs adversarial) is that not only are they both critical and box office hits, they both share space in the narrative of being culturally vital films right now. Sinners has done more to shift the mindset of awards voters of all kinds to take horror seriously and not as a disposable genre. It merges historical context, cultural appropriation and white supremacy from a hundred years ago that is frighteningly still at the forefront of relevance. OBAA also directly confronts modern day racism and systemic power abuse whose every moment feels ripped from current headlines. Both do it in less than straightforward ways, Sinners using horror, One Battle using dark comedy, to keep their stories from feeling preachy or academic. They both represent not only the evolution of the filmmaker but of the audience. While I’ve seen some people entertaining a Best Picture/Best Director split, that’s not what is in front of us here. Each of these films are singular visions by their creators telling personal stories and these wins will go hand in hand or not at all.
Categories outside of the above mentions that I feel safe about right now, with the caveat that the guilds and/or BAFTA could change that: Jessie Buckley in Best Actress, Frankenstein winning Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. The Perfect Neighbor winning Documentary Feature (it’s hurdle was the nomination, there’s nothing stopping it now), KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Feature, F1 in Sound, Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
I’ll have deeper breakdowns of categories in upcoming Frontrunner Fridays. For now, here are my first 2026 Oscar winner predictions of the season.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros) Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Sentimental Value (NEON) Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers | CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Hamnet (Focus Features) Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Marty Supreme (A24) Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 6. Frankenstein (Netflix) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 7. Bugonia (Focus Features) Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers | CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 8. The Secret Agent (NEON) Emilie Lesclaux, Producer | GG |
| 9. Train Dreams (Netflix) Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers | CCA, PGA |
| 10. F1 (Apple Original Films) Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers | PGA |
DIRECTING
| 1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | CCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.), Ryan Coogler | CCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Sentimental Value (NEON), Joachim Trier | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Hamnet (Focus Features), Chloé Zhao | CCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Marty Supreme (A24), Josh Safdie | CCA, DGA (BAFTA longlist) |
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (A24) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (NEON) | CCA, GG |
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (Focus Features) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) | CCA, GG , SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Emma Stone in Bugonia (Focus Features) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (Focus Features) | GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros.) | (BAFTA longlist) |
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros.) | CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros.) | CCA, SAG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG |
CASTING
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Francine Maisler | CCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Cassandra Kulukundis | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Nina Gold | CCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Jennifer Venditti | CCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. The Secret Agent (NEON); Gabriel Domingues |
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Written by Paul Thomas Anderson | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features); Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Bugonia (Focus Features); Screenplay by Will Tracy | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Train Dreams (Netflix); Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Written by Ryan Coogler | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Sentimental Value (NEON); Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Marty Supreme (A24); Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics); Written by Robert Kaplow | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON); Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian | GG (BAFTA longlist) |
FILM EDITING
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy Jurgensen | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Stephen Mirrione | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. Shawver | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie | CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Sentimental Value (NEON); Olivier Bugge Coutté |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.), Autumn Durald Arkapaw | ASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Michael Bauman | ASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Marty Supreme (A24), Darius Khondji | ASC, BSC (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Train Dreams (Netflix), Adolpho Veloso | ASC, CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix), Dan Laustsen | ASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist) |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley | CCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska | CCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter | CCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi | (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. Scott | CDG |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau | ADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne | ADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton | ADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis | ADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino | ADG, SDSA (BAFTA longlist) |
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ludwig Goransson | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Jonny Greenwood | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Max Richter | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Bugonia (Focus Features); Jerskin Fendrix | HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Alexandre Desplat | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist) |
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
| 1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.); Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass/Greenwich Entertainment); Music and Lyric by Diane Warren | HMMA (documentary), SCL |
| 4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix); Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick Cave | CCA, GG |
| 5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Viva Verdi!); Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike |
SOUND
| 1. F1 (Apple Original Films) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta | CCA, MPSE (x2) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker | CCA, MPSE (x3) |
| 3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor | CCA, MPSE (x3) |
| 4. Sirāt (NEON); Amanda Vil | CCA, MPSE |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern | MPSE (x3) |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey | CCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Kokuho (GKIDS); Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu | |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry | CCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. The Smashing Machine (A24); Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein | CCA, MUAH (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. The Ugly Stepsister (Independent Film Company/Shudder); Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century/Walt Disney); Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett | CCA, VES (x10) (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson | CCA, VES (x2) (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean | CCA, VES (x1) |
| 4. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal Pictures); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould | VES (x1) (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin | VES (x4) (BAFTA longlist) |
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
| 1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong | Annie, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 2. Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney); Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino | Annie, CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. Arco (NEON); Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman | Annie, CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon | Annie, CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Elio (Walt Disney/Pixar); Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm | Annie, CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee | CCA, CEH, DGA, PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple Original Films); Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen | CEH |
| 3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PINK); Nominees to be determined | PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Cutting Through Rocks; Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni | DGA |
| 5. The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films); Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman | CCA, PGA |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. Norway, Sentimental Value (NEON) | GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 2. Brazil, The Secret Agent (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 3. France, It Was Just an Accident (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Spain, Sirât (NEON) | CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist) |
| 5. Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab (WILLA) | GG (BAFTA longlist) |
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
| 1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada); Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski | |
| 2. Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions); Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens | |
| 3. The Three Sisters (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures); Konstantin Bronzit | |
| 4. Retirement Plan; John Kelly and Andrew Freedman | |
| 5. Forevergreen; Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
| 1. All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones | |
| 2. Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo | |
| 3. The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir | |
| 4. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins | |
| 5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine |
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
| 1. The Singers (Netflix); Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt | |
| 2. Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker); Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata | |
| 3. Butcher’s Stain (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television); Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi | |
| 4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Julia Aks and Steve Pinder | |
| 5. A Friend of Dorothy; Lee Knight and James Dean |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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