Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: A little bit here and there very randomly

Festival season is over, audience awards have been won and we even already have the first trickles of guilds and critics’ groups revealing nominations with Gotham, plus Cinema Eye Honors, International Documentary Association, Critics’ Choice giving us a keen eye into the documentary race. We also got the British Independent Film Awards (BIFA) and European Film Awards (EFA) nominations, insights into the international feature film category and the Hollywood Music in Media Awards nominations for original scores and songs.

At this point, everything has been seen except for Damien Chazelle’s Babylon (that screens Monday, November 14) and James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel Avatar: The Way of Water (no screening date yet). Both are previous Best Director winners looking to make big Oscar comebacks this year.

AFI Fest gave new birth to Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans as a default frontrunner before things kick into gear in early December, as well as the chance for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio to become the first animated film to break into Best Picture since 2009’s Up and 2010’s Toy Story 3, the first two years of the expanded Best Picture lineup and in years, like this one, of a straight 10 nominees.

There’s not a whole lot of change from my October predictions but I have a feeling that official November predictions, which start next week, might find some upheaval. Coming up soon will be the Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations on 11/22 and the Gotham Awards on 11/28.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for November 11, 2022.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
5. TÁR (Focus Features)
6. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
7. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
8. Till (UAR/Orion Pictures)
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

BEST ACTOR

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros)
4. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
2. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion Pictures)
3. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures/Tri-Star)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24)
2. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
3. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
4. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features)
5. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
2. She Said (Universal Pictures)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
4. The Whale (A24)
5. White Noise (Netflix)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. TÁR (Focus Features)

FILM EDITING

1. Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton (Paramount Pictures)
2. The Fabelmans – Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn (Universal Pictures)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers (A24)
4. Women Talking – Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo (UAR/Orion Pictures)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front – Sven Budelmann (Netflix)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Fabelmans – Janusz Kamiński (Universal Pictures)
2. Empire of Light – Roger Deakins (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) – Darius Khondji (Netflix)
4. Emancipation – Robert Richardson (Apple Original Films)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend (Netflix)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Fabelmans – Rick Carter, production designer; Karen O’Hara, set decorator (Universal)
2. Elvis – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, production designers; Shaun Barry, Beverly Dunn, Daniel Reader, set decorators (Warner Bros)
3. Babylon – Florencia Martin, production designer; Anthony Carlino, set decorator (Paramount Pictures)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Guy Davis, Curt Enderle, production designers (Netflix)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Hannah Beachler: production designer; Lisa K. Sessions, set decorator (Marvel Studios)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Babylon – Mary Zophres (Paramount Pictures)
2. Living – Sandy Powell (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Beavan (Focus Features)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth E. Carter (Marvel Studios)
5. Elvis – Catherine Martin (Warner Bros)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Fabelmans – John Williams (Universal Pictures)
2. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Alexandre Desplat (Netflix) – HMMA
3. Empire of Light – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Searchlight Pictures) – HMMA
4. Women Talking – Hildur Guðnadóttir (UAR/Orion Pictures) – HMMA
5. The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell (Searchlight Pictures) – HMMA

ORIGINAL SONG

1. Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand” (Paramount Pictures) – HMMA
2. RRR – “Naatu Naatu” (Variance Films)
3. Till – “Stand Up” (UAR/Orion Pictures) – HMMA
4. Turning Red – “Nobody Like U” (Walt Disney/Pixar) – HMMA
5. Tell It Like a Woman – “Applause” (Samuel Goldwyn Films) – HMMA

SOUND

1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
4. Elvis (Warner Bros)
5. The Batman (Warner Bros)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. The Whale (A24)
2. The Batman (Warner Bros)
3. Elvis (Warner Bros)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
4. The Batman (Warner Bros)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar)
3. Strange World (Walt Disney)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – CEH, Gotham, IDA
2. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, Gotham, IDA
3. The Territory (National Geographic) – CEH, Gotham
4. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films/CNN/Warner Bros) – CCA, CEH, IDA
5. Fire of Love (National Geographic/NEON) – CCA, CEH, IDA

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Close (Belgium) – BIFA, EFA
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) – BIFA
3. Saint Omer (France)
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)