Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: BAFTA did the thing, PGA and SAG you’re all of us
With PGA tomorrow and SAG on Sunday we’ll truly have all of the puzzle pieces to make these Oscar predictions easy, right? Not exactly.
In Best Picture alone we have the most fragmented season in ages with four different films taking major precursors: Everything Everywhere All At Once has Critics’ Choice, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans won at the Globes and All Quiet on the Western Front made things loud at BAFTA. That definitely puts a lot of pressure on PGA and SAG (especially the former) to give one film the upper hand (All Quiet is the only one not nominated at PGA).
BAFTA (and the recently announced AACTA, who went way out and gave Avatar: The Way of Water their win) did the thing and took frontrunner status from both supporting contenders as Ke Huy Quan lost to Barry Keoghan and Angela Bassett lost to Kerry Condon. Condon picked up the AACTA while Keoghan’s co-star Brendan Gleeson made a dent in the race with a supporting actor win there.
SAG feels like a make or break for a lot of the acting contenders this year, with only Cate Blanchett in line to run the table. Michelle Yeoh needs SAG to find herself back in competition with Blanchett. Austin Butler seems primed for a win there but all eyes will be on how the mostly populist group goes with their supporting wins. SAG winner voting has been going on for over a month, ending just today, so late voters have had a chance to ruminate on those BAFTA wins and whether they agree or have something different in mind.
While many are still in the clouds about a possible Top Gun: Maverick upset in Best Picture, in my estimation things are looking a little bleak for the blockbuster and I would posit that it has a higher chance of being shut out completely for wins more than it has to win the top award. It’s losing film editing wins to EEAAO and while that film flopped at BAFTA, at least it got nominated across the board, something Top Gun did not do.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 95th Academy Awards for Friday, February 24, 2023.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, producers |
| 2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, producers |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, producers |
| 4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Malte Grunert, producer |
| 5. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, producers |
| 6. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, producers |
| 7. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers |
| 8. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, producers |
| 9. Women Talking (United Artists Releasing/Orion Pictures) – SAG Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, producers |
| 10. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers |
DIRECTING
| 1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA |
| 2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA |
| 3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA |
| 4. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, DGA |
| 5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) |
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA |
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures) |
| 4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG |
| 5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG |
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA |
| 5. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) – CCA |
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, BAFTA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, SAG |
| 5. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG, USC, WGA Screenplay by Sarah Polley |
| 2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell |
| 3. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC Written by Kazuo Ishiguro |
| 4. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – WGA Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks |
| 5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA, WGA Written by Rian Johnson |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG Written by Martin McDonagh |
| 2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Todd Field |
| 4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner |
| 5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Written by Ruben Östlund |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Paul Rogers |
| 2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Eddie Hamilton |
| 3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond |
| 4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA Mikkel E.G. Nielsen |
| 5. TÁR (Focus Features) – ACE, CCA Monika Willi |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA James Friend |
| 2. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ASC, BAFTA Mandy Walker |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA Florian Hoffmeister |
| 4. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA Roger Deakins |
| 5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC Darius Khondji |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino |
| 2. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn |
| 3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper |
| 4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara |
| 5. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Catherine Martin |
| 2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CDG, CCA Ruth E. Carter |
| 3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Mary Zophres |
| 4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CDG Jenny Beavan |
| 5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CDG, CCA Shirley Kurata |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Volker Bertelmann |
| 2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, CCA Justin Hurwitz |
| 3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, HMMA, SCL Carter Burwell |
| 4. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, HMMA, SCL Son Lux |
| 5. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, HMMA John Williams |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – CCA, GG Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose |
| 2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop |
| 3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler |
| 4. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once – HMMA |
| 5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman – HMMA, SCL Music and Lyric by Diane Warren |
SOUND
| 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte |
| 2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor |
| 3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller |
| 4. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges |
| 5. The Batman (Warner Bros) – CAS, MPSE (2x) Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (2x) Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti |
| 2. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley |
| 3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová |
| 4. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine |
| 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, MUAH Camille Friend and Joel Harlow |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES (9x) Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett |
| 2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher |
| 3. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy |
| 4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar |
| 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley |
| 2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey |
| 3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks/Universal) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Joel Crawford and Mark Swift |
| 4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins |
| 5. The Sea Beast (Netflix) – Annie Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. Fire of Love (NatGeo/NEON)– BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman |
| 2. Navalny (Warner Bros / CNN Films / HBO Max) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris |
| 3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov |
| 4. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films/Sideshow/Submarine Deluxe) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, PGA Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer |
| 5. A House Made of Splinters (Giant Pictures) Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Belgium, Close (A24) – CCA, GG |
| 3. Argentina, Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Ireland, The Quiet Girl (Super/NEON) – BAFTA |
| 5. Poland, EO (JanusFilms/Sideshow) |
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
| 1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud |
| 2. Ice Merchants (Curtas Metragens CRL / Agência – Portuguese Short Film Agency / New Yorker Studios) João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano |
| 3. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Griffith Film School) Lachlan Pendragon |
| 4. My Year of Dicks (The Animation Showcase / Cat’s Pajamas) Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon |
| 5. The Flying Sailor (National Film Board of Canada / New Yorker Studios) Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
| 1. Stranger at the Gate (New Yorker Studios) Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones |
| 2. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Netflix) Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison |
| 3. Haulout (Albireo Films) Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev |
| 4. How Do You Measure a Year? (Jay Rosenblatt Films) Jay Rosenblatt |
| 5. The Elephant Whisperers (Netflix) Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga |
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
| 1. Le Pupille (Disney+) Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón |
| 2. Night Ride (Cylinder Productions) Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen |
| 3. Ivalu (M&M Productions) Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan |
| 4. An Irish Goodbye (Floodlight Pictures) – BAFTA Tom Berkeley and Ross White |
| 5. The Red Suitcase (Cynefilms) Cyrus Neshvad |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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