Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Happy (?) New Year and Hey, Just Look Up

Kind of perfect that the last Frontrunner Friday of 2021 falls on the actual last day of this tumultuous year.

We might be able to close the chapter of 2021 but yet another full year of pandemic hell and what is definitely another to come make it a less fun adventure or even distraction. 2021 was also the zenith of attacks on film critics and pundits, both from fringe stans of actors and actresses who demanded nothing less than heads on pikes if you didn’t predict or said a stray word about their faves, to filmmakers themselves pushing back, hard, at critics who didn’t like their films. Nuance, irony and satire have eroded conversation online as rapidly as melting ice caps and I do wonder if there’s a way back.

Let’s get into what, if anything, changed in the last week or so since my official December predictions.

Turns out, it they kinda did. While the critics’ awards have settled down for the holidays, we had the Netflix debut of their star-studded, comet-headed-to-Earth comedy Don’t Look Up. The film, which stars Oscar winners Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett and from Oscar winner Adam McKay, hit the planet like an extinction level event, topping the streamer’s charts in almost 90 countries and causing the biggest online stir of any movie this year. Celebrities, scientists and politicians have all come out in favor of the movie but it’s critics overall that have been cold on it (it has a 54% on Rotten Tomatoes, our reviewer gave it an A-), which spurned McKay and the film’s co-writer David Sirota to take to Twitter to actively go after those critics who weren’t so keen on the film, saying they “didn’t get it.” Not for the importance of its subject, mind you, but the execution of the film, which many critics felt was subpar. Sirota especially has used his platform to hit at writers like Matt Zoller Seitz over a comment the critic made in response to a tweet by McKay and is even going after friends and former colleagues. It’s a strange approach and I don’t know what impact it might have – positive or negative – or if it will simply blow over in our short news cycle. It sure didn’t help Hillbilly Elegy last year when author and the film’s subject, J.D. Vance, acted out similarly from a very right-wing perspective. But, I bring this up specifically because it feeds into the first part of this piece where discourse is so off course that there is nary a way to disagree and things go off the rails quickly in the daily jousting matches that make up the Twitterverse.

If you remove all of that, and Twitter is certainly a bubble so why wouldn’t you, and just look at the facts we have in front of us, Don’t Look Up is hitting everywhere it needs to on its way to Oscar voting. It has Best Picture nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, was on both the AFI and NBR Top 10 Films lists, will surely nab a SAG Cast nomination and BAFTA longlist mentions on January 12 and a Producers Guild nomination on January 27. Since it’s on Netflix it doesn’t have to worry about pesky box office numbers and countless articles about being a flop even with a starry cast. It’s able to sidestep that in a way that other films, like theater-only releases West Side Story or Belfast, have not been able to do. Box office doesn’t always have to be a part of the narrative and as we close out the second year of pandemic-hampered numbers and theater attendance (with few exceptions, of course) it won’t be as big a factor as it has been in the past.

I’ve been either hesitant or on the fence most of the year about what to do with Don’t Look Up and where, or if, it fits into this Oscar race in a major way. It was never a top priority for Netflix, as their focus was on their festival films: The Lost Daughter, Passing and The Power of the Dog. DiCaprio has a Globe nod and is the film’s best (and really only) shot at an acting nomination yet I don’t feel like he’s safe at all, but it should easily land screenplay and editing nominations. Song and score both seem likely, too. We know McKay’s recent history with the Academy has been very good; Vice got eight nominations, including Best Picture, Director, three acting nods and a win for makeup while The Big Short also got in for Picture and Director and won McKay the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay (with Charles Randolph). Don’t Look Up is much more in the vein of The Big Short and could play out quite similarly, nomination-wise. But keep this in mind; McKay earned Best Director nominations from both the Globes and Critics Choice for Vice on his way to a DGA and Oscar nom and had a BAFTA and DGA nomination for The Big Short. He didn’t hit the Globes or Critics Choice for Don’t Look Up so if he’s going to be an Oscar directing contender he’ll need BAFTA and/or DGA to come through for him first.

Next up, awards-wise, are The Golden Globes on January 9 (Critics Choice vacated that spot due to COVID surges and the desire for an in-person only ceremony) but not only do we still not know what format those awards will take, the absence of a traditional televised show on top of the heap of scandals the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was met with in 2021 might make the longstanding precursor a non-factor. After that we move on to January 27, aka awards season D-Day, where we’ll have the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild nominations, all coinciding with the first day of Oscar nomination voting.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for December 31, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
3. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA 
5. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA
8. CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA
10. Spencer (NEON) 

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA
4. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA 
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) 

BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA 
2. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) – GG, CCA
3. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA
4. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
3. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
4. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
2. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA 
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) 
5. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) – CCA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA
5. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios)

FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA
2. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA
4. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA 
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) 
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA 

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA 
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA 
5. Spencer (NEON)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA 
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA 
5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
3. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG 
4. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA 

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA 
2. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG 
4. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA 
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA 

SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) 
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) 
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) 
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max) 
4. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures) 
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel) – CCA, Annie

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA winner
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA winner, PGA
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, PGA 
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA 
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA 
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA 
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA 
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA 
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix)
2. Us Again (Walt Disney)
3. A Hero (MTV Entertainment)
4. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
5. Step Into the River (The New Yorker) 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (Netflix)
3. When We Were Bullies (Locomotion Films)
4. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
5. Terror Contagion (NEON) 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. You’re Dead Helen (Daylight Films/Formosa Productions) 
3. Under the Heavens (The New Yorker) 
4. When the Sun Sets (HBO) 
5. Censor of Dreams (Salaud Morisset)

Photos: Niko Tavernise/Netflix