Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: It’s a New Dawn, it’s a New Day
The new year is bringing us the final pieces of the Oscar puzzle, even if we’re nearly four months away from the big show itself. Holdouts like Warner Bros’ Judas and the Black Messiah and The Little Things (which could push Denzel Washington into the race) are starting to screen and so is The United States vs Billie Holiday, which Hulu scooped up from the struggling Paramount Pictures, its third major handoff this season after The Trial of the Chicago 7 going to Netflix and Coming 2 America going to Amazon.
For USvBH‘s Andra Day, starring as legendary blues singer Billie Holiday, she hits all the hallmarks of a classic Best Actress nominee: playing a real-life person, boatloads of trauma including addiction and abuse, physical transformation and, even more importantly, the type of newcomer tour de force performance voters love.
But The United States vs Billie Holiday shouldn’t be one of those ‘lone nominee’ films. While Day is the clear standout (her supporting cast is fine but don’t have much of a shot and are really there to support and bolster her) the film itself is a thoroughly handsome production. From the rich score by Kris Bowers, to the dozens of meticulously decorated sets by production designer Daniel T. Dorrance and set decorator Pascale Deschênes, the flawless costumes by Paolo Nieddu or the period perfect makeup and hair by Ronald J. Wolfe, Charles Gregory Ross and Laini Thompson, director Lee Daniels (The Butler, The Paperboy) has fashioned a classic biopic full of grandeur, high and low drama and a star making turn. But does Hulu have what it takes to get the film into Best Picture or, better yet, does it need to?
One big missing piece of the puzzle, especially for Best Actress, is Zendaya in Malcolm & Marie. The trailer just dropped this morning and I won’t be seeing the film until Friday evening, after these predictions have posted. Word of mouth has been quite interesting and seeing some pundits put it on their top 10 list has me intrigued as to how far the newly minted Emmy winner can go in this very contentious race.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for January 8, 2021. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)
4. Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)
5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)
6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)
7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)
8. Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)
10. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)
BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)
1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)
3. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
5. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)
1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
4. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu)
5. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)
4. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
5. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)
3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)
4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)
5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
3. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
3. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg
5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos
1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards
3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Phedon Papamichael
1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)
2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)
3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)
1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville
2. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne
3. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Paolo Nieddu
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth
5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler
1. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Matiki Anoff (makeup department head), Mia Neal (hair department head), Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) (Netflix)
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)
4. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Bill Corso (makeup department head), Kevin Yagher (special makeup effects artist)
5. The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Ronald J. Wolfe (hair department head), Charles Gregory Ross (hair stylist: Ms. Day, wig designer, hair department head) Laini Thompson (makeup department head)
1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and John Batiste, if eligible)
2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard
4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard
5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
2. “lo Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park
4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha
5. “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour (DreamWorks Animation)
Written by Justin Timberlake, Ludwig Göransson, Max Martin and Sarah Aarons
1. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo
2. Soul (Pixar)
Coya Elliott, David Parker, Justin Pearson, Jonathon Stevens
3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum
5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Philip Stockton, Paul Hsu, José Antonio García
1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon
2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers
3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
4. Mulan (Disney+)
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram
5. The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures)
Jonathan Dearing, Marcus Bolton, Matt Ebb, Aevar Bjarnason
1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray
2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey
3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim
4. Earwig and the Witch (Studio Ghibli)
Gorô Miyazaki
5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae
1. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
Alexander Nanau
2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France
3. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley
4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham
5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw
1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. A Sun (Taiwan)
5. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
- January 1, 2021 – Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Should Auld Pandemics Be Forgot?
- December 18, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No ‘Mank’ land
- December 11, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Juda-as! Juda-ah-as! Judas! Ka-luu-ya!
- December 4, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No Country for Nice Men
- November 20, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: When the Levee Broke
- November 13, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Glenn Close
- November 6, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Lady Sings the Blues
- October 30, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The landscape, it is a changin’
The United States vs Billie Holiday image courtesy of Takashi Keida
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- 2024 North Carolina Film Critics Association (NCFCA) Nominations - December 21, 2024
- 2024 Philadelphia Film Critics Circle (PFCC) Winners: ‘Anora’ Named Best Film Among its Six Awards - December 21, 2024
- 2024 Utah Film Critics Association (UFCA) Nominations - December 21, 2024
2024 North Carolina Film Critics Association (NCFCA) Nominations 
2024 Philadelphia Film Critics Circle (PFCC) Winners: ‘Anora’ Named Best Film Among its Six Awards 
2024 Utah Film Critics Association (UFCA) Nominations 
2024 Black Reel Awards Nominations: ‘Nickel Boys,’ ‘The Piano Lesson’ Lead