Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No Country for Nice Men
One of the last few major films to screen for critics was this week, the new Paul Greengrass western starring the nicest guy in Hollywood, Tom Hanks, and little German firecracker Helena Zengel in News of the World. But, do nice guys really finish last?
While full reviews are embargoed until December 11, the initial social media responses (including my own) were enthusiastic but with some hesitation on the awards prospects of the film. I’m a bit torn on it; I have it in the lower half of most of my predictions (as do quite a few of my fellow pundits) but it’s really going to be the only movie of its kind this season and I do wonder if I’m underestimating it. Universal Studios seems very confident in the Christmas Day theatrical release of the film (one of the few studios to not budge from that) that will have a VOD release 17 days later.
As a two-time Academy Award winner for Best Actor already, Hanks seems like a shoe-in but it took him almost 20 years between his last two nominations (2000’s Cast Away and 2019’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) and he’s been passed over half a dozen times already – even when his film is a Best Picture nominee and his co-star is nominated. He’ll face compelling first-time challengers and has a steep mountain to climb at the moment. Zengel would be an ideal supporting contender a la Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit but her category is becoming quite full too, with seasoned actresses and first-timers alike.
We got a double dose of Meryl Streep this week with the official press screening of Steven Soderbergh’s Let Them All Talk and the reviews for Ryan Murphy’s The Prom. While I feel like Streep will contend for dual Golden Globe nominations (more on that in a future piece) it’s Candice Bergen that really shines from Let Them All Talk. I don’t know if she has enough runway to break into the top 5 quite yet, but she’s getting there fast. For The Prom, reviews are (as Streep says in the film) mixed to positive (but mostly quite positive) but I’m not sure if it’s enough to break into Best Picture. But never, ever count out the 21-time Oscar nominee in Best Actress. She’s felled better and lesser contenders to earn a nomination before. Let Them All Talk will be on HBO Max December 10 and The Prom will be on Netflix December 11.
STX Films announced a name change and release date for their Guantanamo Bay drama The Mauritanian (previously titled Prisoner 760) that stars Tahar Rahim, two-time Best Actress Oscar winner Jodie Foster and Shailene Woodley. Everything about it has the veneer of prestige but it a ‘this has Oscar buzz’ kind of way.
The biggest news of the week though, in fact the biggest movie news in decades, was Warner Bros announcing it would drop its entire 2021 slate (including Dune, Matrix 4 and In the Heights) on HBO Max day and date with their theatrical release, whatever theatrical releases end up being in 2021. The films will still have a slightly earlier international theatrical release like what they’re doing with Wonder Woman 1984, but it’s a seismic change in how we’ll see movies in the future if it lasts. Not to mention that it would force the hand of the Academy to extend this year’s streaming-only eligibility. For their main awards push this season, Judas and the Black Messiah, there’s still no official date but I still think they’ll qualify it for the 93rd Oscars.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for December 4, 2020. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)
2. Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)
5. Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)
6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)
7. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)
8. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)
9. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)
BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)
1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)
3. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
5. Kornél Mundruczó – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
4. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)
5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)
1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
5. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
1. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
5. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)
5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)
2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)
3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)
5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)
1. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
5. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg
5. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Stephen Mirrione
1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards
3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski
5. Minari (A24)
Lachlan Milne
1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)
2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)
3. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Jim Bissell (production designer), John Bush (set decorator)
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)
5. Emma. (Focus Features)
Kave Quinn (production designer), Stella Fox (set decorations)
1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville
2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler
3. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Suzie Harman, Robert Worley
1. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
2. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
4. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Nominees TBD
5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions)
Nominees TBD
1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and John Batiste, if eligible)
2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard
4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard
5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri
1. “lo Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park
3. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Atli Örvarsson
5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
1. Soul (Pixar)
Nominees TBD
2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD
4. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
5. Mank (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD
2. Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD
4. Mulan (Disney+)
Nominees TBD
5. Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount Pictures)
Nominees TBD
1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray
2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey
3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim
4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher
5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae
1. Crip Camp (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham
2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films
David France
3. Boys State (Apple TV+)
Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss
4. The Dissident (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Bryan Fogel
5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw
1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. The Endless Trench (Spain)
5. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
November 20, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: When the Levee Broke
November 13, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Glenn Close
November 6, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Lady Sings the Blues
October 30, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The landscape, it is a changin’
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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