Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: One Sweet Day(vis)

So, SAG, right?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards did two things last week; showed us just how locked Chadwick Boseman and Daniel Kaluuya are in their respective categories and blew up the actress races in the best way possible.

These predictions are going up before BAFTA and DGA (lol) this weekend but I feel comfortable that we’ll see the steamroll in Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor that we’ve seen so far. Best Actress will be very little help as it will give us the fourth winner of the four main precursors (Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA). If either Frances McDormand or Vanessa Kirby win there, I guess it helps them but not in the way that it would in a traditional year that hasn’t been disrupted by a pandemic or are a result in BAFTA voting itself being turned upside down. Which is why the race is now down to Golden Globe winner Andra Day The United States vs Billie Holiday and Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Two ferocious performances backed by wins with great Oscar history, a newbie vs a veteran. It’s a classic battle and an exciting one, one that will bring us Oscar history and a thrilling conclusion to the year’s most unpredictable race.

In supporting actress however, if either Critics Choice winner Maria Bakalova or SAG winner Youn Yuh-jung take it, they’ll push themselves out ahead…perhaps. I think Youn’s SAG win is more important than a potential BAFTA win from Bakalova but, as you’ll see in my predictions, I think there’s a strong possibility of both of them losing there. I look at it like this: losing isn’t as bad as winning is good. Does that make sense? What I mean is, because of BAFTA’s voting overhaul, being able to break through with even a nomination was a great thing, but missing out on one wasn’t as detrimental as it would have been in a ‘normal’ year. I see winning and losing there the same way. In my head it makes sense even if the syntax is messy.

Where I think BAFTA could come in handy is in a handful of below the line categories where there’s been some open races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hair, Film Editing, Sound and Visual Effects. As those guilds have begun and will continue through next week, our picture becomes sharper, as sharp as it can be in this exceptional year. This is where Emma., Pinocchio, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Midnight Sky and Tenet need to show their strength to make their cases for Oscar successes.

The SAG win for The Trial of the Chicago 7 over Minari bumps it up once again but it remains what I feel is a distant 2nd to Nomadland. Chloé Zhao remains the undeniable Best Director frontrunner and no amount of needing for there to be a race to justify full articles or podcasts is going to change that. I think we can simply acknowledge that certain frontrunners are locked and focus on categories that are actually competitive.

This is the last Frontrunner Friday of the season. Official Final Oscar predictions begin next week. But here’s where I think things are right now, Friday, April 9, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, plus ACE, MPSE
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CSA, DGA, MPSE, WGA
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers 

3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers

4. Minari (A24) – SAG, PGA plus ACE
Christina Oh, Producer

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA plus ACE, CAS, CSA, MPSE, WGA
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, GG
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA plus CSA, CDG, WGA
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers

8. Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, MPSE, MUAH, VES
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DIRECTOR

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA, DGA
2. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, DGA, GG
3. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, DGA
4. David Fincher for Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, DGA, GG
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – BAFTA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Steven Yeun in Minari (A24) – BFCA, SAG
5. Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG
2. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BFCA, GG
3. Frances McDormand in Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG, SAG
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA 
5. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, SAG
2. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG*, SAG (*in lead)
3. Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG
5. Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible)
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA
Screenplay by Kemp Powers 

5. The White Tiger (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, WGA
Written by Emerald Fennell

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA
Written by Aaron Sorkin

3. Minari (A24) – BFCA (WGA ineligible)
Written by Lee Isaac Chung

4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, WGA
Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – WGA
Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

FILM EDITING

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Alan Baumgarten

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Yorgos Lamprinos

5. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – ACE (comedy), BAFTA
Frédéric Thoraval

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BAFTA
Sean Bobbitt

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ASC
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA, SDSA
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – ADG, BFCA, SDSA
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Ann Roth

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Trish Summerville

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BFCA, CDG
Bina Daigeler

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1.  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

2. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, MUAH
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

5. Emma.(Focus Features) – BFCA
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Emile Mosseri

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
James Newton Howard

5. Da 5 Bloods  (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL
Terence Blanchard

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se) (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

2. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

3. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashwort

4. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
 (Netflix) – GG, HMMA
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

2. Greyhound (Apple TV+) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

3. Soul (Walt Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

4. Mank (Netflix) – CAS, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA, VES
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

3. The One and Only Ivan (Walt Disney Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA, VES
Ivan Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

4. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Pete Docter and Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

3. Onward (Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

4. Over the Moon (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix) – Annie, BFCA
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

My Octopus Teacher (Netflix) – BAFTA, DGA, PGA
Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster 

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

3. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

4. Crip Camp (Netflix) – BFCA, IDA
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas Venures)
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) – BAFTA
3. Collective (Romania) – BFCA
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
5. Better Days (Hong Kong)

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow
Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat

2. If Anything Happens I Love You
Will McCormack and Michael Govier

3. Genius Loci
Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise

4. Opera
Erick Oh

5. Yes-People 
Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Hunger Ward
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

2. A Concerto Is a Conversation
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

3. Colette
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

4. Do Not Split
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

5. A Love Song for Latasha
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Two Distant Strangers
Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

2. The Letter Room
Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

3. Feeling Through
Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

4. The Present
Farah Nabulsi

5. White Eye
Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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