Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Paul Thomas Anderson Inches Closer (2/13/26)
Last weekend, Paul Thomas Anderson won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award for Theatrical Feature Film for One Battle After Another, moving one step closer to securing his first Oscar. With Critics Choice and the Golden Globe also in hand, sights are next set on BAFTA on the 22nd, where he’s also expected to triumph, giving the 14-time Oscar-nominated filmmaker a nearly unbeatable trajectory, no matter what some pundits want you to believe.
Last night, the Costume Designers Guild (CDG) awards were held, giving their wins to Frankenstein (period), One Battle After Another (contemporary) and Wicked: For Good (sci-fi/fantasy). Only Frankenstein made the Oscar cut, where it previously won Critics Choice. This weekend will bring ceremonies for the Make Up & Hairstylists Guild (MUAH) and the Spirit Awards (although this is going to be the least corollary to the Oscars in forever).
Here my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 24 categories for February 13.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros) Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA |
| 3. Sentimental Value (NEON) Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 4. Hamnet (Focus Features) Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA |
| 5. Marty Supreme (A24) Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA |
| 6. Frankenstein (Netflix) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers | CCA, GG, SAG, PGA |
| 7. Bugonia (Focus Features) Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers | CCA, GG, PGA |
| 8. The Secret Agent (NEON) Emilie Lesclaux, Producer | GG |
| 9. Train Dreams (Netflix) Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers | CCA, PGA |
| 10. F1 (Apple Original Films) Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers | PGA |
DIRECTING
| 1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 3. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA |
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (A24) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (NEON) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (Focus Features) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) | BAFTA, CCA, GG , SAG |
| 4. Emma Stone in Bugonia (Focus Features) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (Focus Features) | BAFTA, GG, SAG |
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros) |
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, SAG |
| 3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (NEON) | CCA, GG |
CASTING
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Francine Maisler | BAFTA, CCA, CSA |
| 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Cassandra Kulukundis | BAFTA, CCA |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Nina Gold | CCA, CSA |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Jennifer Venditti | BAFTA, CCA, CSA |
| 5. The Secret Agent (NEON); Gabriel Domingues |
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); Written by Paul Thomas Anderson | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC, WGA |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features); Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC, WGA |
| 3. Bugonia (Focus Features); Screenplay by Will Tracy | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
| 4. Train Dreams (Netflix); Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar | CCA, USC, WGA |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro | CCA, USC, WGA |
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros); Written by Ryan Coogler | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 2. Sentimental Value (NEON); Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. Marty Supreme (A24); Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 4. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics); Written by Robert Kaplow | |
| 5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON); Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian | GG |
FILM EDITING
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); Andy Jurgensen | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Stephen Mirrione | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros); Michael P. Shawver | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. Sentimental Value (NEON); Olivier Bugge Coutté | ACE, BAFTA |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); Michael Bauman | BAFTA, ASC, BSC, CCA |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros); Autumn Durald Arkapaw | BAFTA, ASC, BSC, CCA |
| 3.Train Dreams (Netflix); Adolpho Veloso | BAFTA, ASC, CCA |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Darius Khondji | BAFTA, ASC, BSC |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Dan Laustsen | BAFTA, ASC, BSC, CCA |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi | |
| 5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. Scott | CDG |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau | BAFTA, ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros); Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne | BAFTA, ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton | BAFTA, ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 4. Marty Supreme (A24); Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis | BAFTA, ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino | BAFTA, ADG, SDSA |
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros); Ludwig Goransson | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (studio) |
| 2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); Jonny Greenwood | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (studio) |
| 3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Max Richter | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (studio) |
| 4. Bugonia (Focus Features); Jerskin Fendrix | BAFTA, HMMA (main), SCL (studio) |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Alexandre Desplat | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (studio) |
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
| 1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL (comedy/musical) |
| 2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros); Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (drama/documentary) |
| 3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass/Greenwich Entertainment); Music and Lyric by Diane Warren | HMMA (documentary), SCL (drama/documentary) |
| 4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix); Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick Cave | CCA, GG |
| 5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Viva Verdi!); Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike |
SOUND
| 1. F1 (Apple Original Films) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta | BAFTA, CCA, MPSE (x2) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker | BAFTA, CCA, MPSE (x3) |
| 3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros); José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor | BAFTA, CCA, MPSE (x3) |
| 4. Sirāt (NEON); Amanda Vil | CCA, MPSE |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern | BAFTA, MPSE (x3) |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros); Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 3. Kokuho (GKIDS); Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu | |
| 4. The Smashing Machine (A24); Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein | CCA, MUAH |
| 5. The Ugly Stepsister (Independent Film Company/Shudder); Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century/Walt Disney); Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x10) |
| 2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x2) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean | CCA, VES (x1) |
| 4. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin | BAFTA, VES (x4) |
| 5. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal Pictures); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould | VES (x1) |
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
| 1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong | Annie, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 2. Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney); Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 3. Arco (NEON); Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman | Annie, CCA, GG |
| 4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Elio (Walt Disney/Pixar); Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee | BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA, PGA |
| 2. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple Original Films); Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen | CEH |
| 3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PINK); Nominees to be determined | PGA (BAFTA longlist) |
| 4. Cutting Through Rocks; Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni | DGA |
| 5. The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films); Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman | CCA, PGA |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. Norway, Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, GG |
| 2. Brazil, The Secret Agent (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. France, It Was Just an Accident (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Spain, Sirât (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab (WILLA) | BAFTA, GG |
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
| 1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada); Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski | |
| 2. Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions); Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens | |
| 3. The Three Sisters (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures); Konstantin Bronzit | |
| 4. Retirement Plan; John Kelly and Andrew Freedman | |
| 5. Forevergreen; Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
| 1. All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones | |
| 2. Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo | |
| 3. The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir | |
| 4. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins | |
| 5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine |
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
| 1. The Singers (Netflix); Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt | |
| 2. A Friend of Dorothy; Lee Knight and James Dean | |
| 3. Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker); Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata | |
| 4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Julia Aks and Steve Pinder | |
| 5. Butcher’s Stain (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television); Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
Latest posts by Erik Anderson (see all)
- Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Paul Thomas Anderson Inches Closer (2/13/26) - February 13, 2026
- Costume Designers Guild (CGD) Winners: ‘Frankenstein,’ ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Andor’ and More - February 13, 2026
- Final Additions to South by Southwest Film & TV Festival (SXSW), Including ‘Love Language,’ ‘Cookie Queens’ and ‘The Fox’ - February 12, 2026
Director Watch Podcast Ep. 139 – ‘Les Rendez-vous d’Anna’ (Chantal Akerman, 1978) 
Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Paul Thomas Anderson Inches Closer (2/13/26) 
Costume Designers Guild (CGD) Winners: ‘Frankenstein,’ ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Andor’ and More 
Final Additions to South by Southwest Film & TV Festival (SXSW), Including ‘Love Language,’ ‘Cookie Queens’ and ‘The Fox’