Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Pizza party, hold the Cooper
It’s just halfway through AFI FEST, which, as of this writing, still has yet to world premiere Benjamin Cleary’s Swan Song, starring Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris and Glenn Close as well as Halle Berry’s directorial debut Bruised, in which she also stars. But we kick it all off with the absolutely raucous premiere of tick, tick…BOOM!, the directorial debut from Emmy, Grammy and Tony winner Lin-Manuel Miranda about the life of Rent creator Jonathan Larson and starring a never better Andrew Garfield. But, is there room for Boom in this season’s Best Picture lineup?
MGM’s Licorice Pizza and House of Gucci were also finally seen, with social sentiments released for both films. While LP served up some piping hot slices of love, the gabagool of Gucci was met with considerably more mixed results. I’m seeing Gucci just hours after this publishes but my take on Pizza is that it’s an easy screenplay nod for Paul Thomas Anderson but overall will this play like Phantom Thread/There Will Be Blood or more like Inherent Vice? It’s talky, funny and packed with 1970s Hollywood fun but even with fantastic debuts from Cooper Hoffman and Alana Haim leading it, it’s gonna be tough for them to crack into the acting categories. Oh and Bradley Cooper? Probably in the whole thing for about five minutes. If you’ve seen the trailer, you’ve seen 90% of his performance (that image above, weirdly not even in the movie proper). My former #1 in supporting actor drops out of the top 5 completely, making that category completely up in the air.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for November 12, 2021.
BEST PICTURE
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
6. Spencer (NEON)
7. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
9. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
10. Flee (NEON)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Paulo Sorrentino – The Hand of God (Netflix)
BEST ACTOR
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
4. Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (A24)
5. Clifton Collins, Jr. – Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics)
BEST ACTRESS
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON)
2. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
4. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
5. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Timothy Spall – Spencer (NEON)
4. Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix)
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix)
3. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix)
4. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films)
5. Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features)
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UA)
3. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24)
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros)
5. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix)
FILM EDITING
1. Dune – Joe Walker (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Belfast – Úna Ni Dhonghaile (Focus Features)
3. King Richard – Pamela Martin (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras (Netflix)
5. Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin (Netflix)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Dune – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner (Netflix)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel (A24/Apple Original Films)
4. Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos (Focus Features)
5. Spencer – Claire Mathon (NEON)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Dune – Patrice Vermotte, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh (A24/Apple Original Films)
3. Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (Searchlight Pictures)
4. The French Dispatch – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo (Searchlight Pictures)
5. The Power of the Dog – Grant Major, Amber Richards (Netflix)
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Dune – Jacqueline West (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Nightmare Alley – Luis Siqueira (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Spencer – Jacqueline Durran (NEON)
4. Cruella – Jenny Beavan (Walt Disney)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Mary Zophres (A24/Apple Original Films)
MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dune – Hans Zimmer (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Spencer – Jonny Greenwood (NEON)
3. The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood (Netflix)
4. The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell (Netflix)
MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. “Believe” from The Rescue (NatGeo)
5. “Automatic Woman” from Bruised (Netflix)
SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
4. Cruella (Walt Disney)
5. The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures)
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix)
2. Flee (NEON)
3. Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney)
5. Belle (GKIDS)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Rescue (NatGeo)
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
4. Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Procession (Netflix)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. The Hand of God (Italy)
2. Flee (Denmark)
3. A Hero (Iran)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. Drive My Car (Japan)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- Producers Guild of America Announces Finalists and Expansion of “PGA Innovation Award” for the 36th Producers Guild Awards - November 14, 2024
- 2025 Cinema Eye Honors Nominations: ‘Sugarcane,’ ‘Dahomey,’ ‘No Other Land’ Lead Documentary/Nonfiction Awards - November 14, 2024
- 2025 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November) - November 14, 2024
Producers Guild of America Announces Finalists and Expansion of “PGA Innovation Award” for the 36th Producers Guild Awards 
2025 Cinema Eye Honors Nominations: ‘Sugarcane,’ ‘Dahomey,’ ‘No Other Land’ Lead Documentary/Nonfiction Awards 
2025 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November) 
Adrien Brody to Receive Desert Palm Achievement Acting Award from Palm Springs International Film Awards