Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: ‘Power’ Shift

Erik Anderson December 10, 2021

We’ve only just begun the deluge of critics’ awards and with early wins at NYFCC, Washington DC and Atlanta, Jane Campion has taken the baton and is ahead of the pack and this week rises to the top of Best Director. Same goes for Kodi Smith-McPhee in Supporting Actor, with wins from NYFCC and Washington DC, he also surges ahead and helps put The Power of the Dog ever so close to Best Picture frontrunner territory.

Best Actor and Best Actress also see some change with Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) rising to the top 5 (or back into it) on the strength of critics’ wins and personal reviews. While Cyrano could find itself a player below the line, West Side Story definitely will and the rapturous reviews for the film as a Steven Spielberg triumph against the odds inch the film up the Best Picture chart as well.

Below the line is still quite the Dune fest, with the $200M blockbuster showing off every penny of its budget across the board.

With Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Spirit Award nominations arriving next week, we’ll have even more puzzle pieces as the race starts to take shape. Who will rise and who will fall?

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for December 10, 2021.

BEST PICTURE
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
5. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR)
7. Spencer (NEON)
8. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
9. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
10. CODA (Apple Original Films)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
4. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR)

BEST ACTOR
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
4. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON)
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
3. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
4. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR)
4. Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
4. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix)
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix)
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films)
4. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (A24/Apple Original Films)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features)
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR)
3. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios)
4. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix)
5. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros)

FILM EDITING
1. Dune – Joe Walker (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Belfast – Úna Ni Dhonghaile (Focus Features)
3. King Richard – Pamela Martin (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras (Netflix)
5. West Side Story – Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn (20th Century Studios)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Dune – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner (Netflix)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel (A24/Apple Original Films)
4. Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos (Focus Features)
5. West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski (20th Century Studios)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
5. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)

COSTUME DESIGN
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Cruella (Walt Disney)
3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR)
5. Spencer (NEON)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR)
4. Cruella (Walt Disney)
5. Titane (NEON)

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dune – Hans Zimmer (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Spencer – Jonny Greenwood (NEON)
3. The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood (Netflix)
4. Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell (Netflix)
5. The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat (Searchlight Pictures)

ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features)

SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR)
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. The Tomorrow War (Amazon Studios)
5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures)

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix)
3. Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney)
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Rescue (NatGeo)
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films)
5. Procession (Netflix)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. The Hand of God (Italy)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
5. Drive My Car (Japan)

Photo: Kirsty Griffin/Netflix

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.