Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Stunted Season and the Rise of Chalamet
With the Los Angeles fires still underway, and several events canceled or postponed right as Oscar voting began (January 8), our hearts go out to everyone in LA, including our own Griffin Schiller and Karen Peterson, and hope they remain safe and out of harm’s way.
While we have the Golden Globe Awards under our belts, filled with winners following the path we all knew was there (Kieran Culkin, Zoe Saldaña), we also had a relatively surprising win with Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here, aptly named) besting the likes of Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie for the Drama Actress Globe, putting her in a great position.
The Screen Actors Guild nominations went even wilder, tossing out heavily predicted contenders like Jolie and Kidman as well as Denzel Washington, Guy Pearce, Clarence Maclin, Isabella Rossellini and Margaret Qualley for Pamela Anderson, Jamie Lee Curtis, Jonathan Bailey, Jeremy Strong and more. The Directors Guild of America gave us four of the five widely predicted contenders in Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) then added in James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, a film that’s been building box office and guild nominations at exactly the right time. But will the DGA go 5/5 with Oscar or is Mangold the collateral damage the Academy’s director branch replaces with Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) or Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), the only previous nominee with a shot to keep it an all first-timer lineup since 1997?
Nominations announcements from the American Society of Cinematographers, Producers Guild of America and Writers Guild of America, which were set for this week, have all been pushed to this coming Sunday and Monday due to the ongoing fires and issues of safety, also effectively ending West Coast campaigning. The Critics Choice Awards moved their ceremony from this Sunday to January 26th. Oscar nomination voting itself was set to end on January 12th and has been extended to the 14th, with the nominations announcement moving from January 17th to the 19th.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar nomination predictions for the 97th Academy Awards on Friday, January 10, 2025. Final predictions coming next week.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) | AFI, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | AFI, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Anora (NEON) | AFI, Cannes (Palme d’Or), CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit, SAG |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 5. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 6. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 7. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros) | AFI, CCA, GG |
| 8. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, EFA, GG, Spirit |
| 9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI, GG, NBR |
| 10. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
Next up: Sing Sing (A24) – AFI, CCA, Spirit; Nosferatu (Focus Features)
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, DGA, GG, Spirit, Venice (Silver Bear) |
| 2. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, DGA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, DGA, GG |
| 4. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) | CCA, DGA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG |
Next up: James Mangold – A Complete Unknown – DGA; Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) – CCA; RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) – CCA, Gotham
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
| 2. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
| 3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | GG |
Next up: Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) – GG, Gotham, SAG; Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) – Gotham, BIFA, CCA; Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) – CCA, GG; Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) – Venice, Gotham, GG
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG |
| 3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
| 4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, EFA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) | CCA, EFA, GG, SAG |
Next up: Hugh Grant – Heretic (A24) – CCA, GG; Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (A24) – GG
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress), SAG |
| 2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) | SAG |
| 5. Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | SAG |
Next up: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) – CCA, Gotham, SAG; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) – CCA; Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) – GG; Margaret Qualley – The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, GG
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG |
| 2. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG |
| 3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, GG, Gotham |
| 4. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, Gotham |
Next up: Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) – GG, SAG; Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | CCA |
| 4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald | |
| 5. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | CCA |
Next up: Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert) – CCA; Wicked Part 1 — Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox (based on the musical stage play with music and lyrics by Stephen Schwartz and the book by Winnie Holzman) (Universal Pictures) – CCA
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | CCA, GG, Sundance |
| 2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | CCA, GG |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | CCA, GG |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | Cannes, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 5. All We Imagine as Light (Janus Films/Sideshow) Payal Kapadia |
Next up: Challengers (Amazon MGM) – CCA; Hard Truths (Bleecker Street); September 5 (Paramount Pictures) – CCA
FILM EDITING
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson | ACE, CCA |
| 2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | ACE, CCA |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling | ACE |
| 4. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Marco Costa | ACE, CCA |
| 5. September 5 – Hansjörg Weißbrich (Paramount Pictures) | CCA |
Next up: The Brutalist (A24) – CCA; Civil War (A24) – ACE; Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) – ACE, CCA
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | CCA |
| 2. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) Jomo Fray | CCA |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke | CCA |
| 4. Conclave (Focus Features) Stéphane Fontaine | CCA |
| 5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Phedon Papamichael |
Next up: Emilia Pérez (Netflix); Maria (Netflix)
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell | CCA, CDG |
| 2. Conclave (Focus Features) Lisy Christi | CCA, CDG |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir | CCA, CDG |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates | CCA, CDG |
| 5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Ariane Phillips |
Next up: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros) – CDG; Dune: Part Two – CCA, CDG; Maria (Netflix) – CCA, CDG
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley | ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 2. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker | ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 3. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max | ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Craig Lathrop | ADG, CCA, SDSA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Patrice Vermette | ADG, CCA, SDSA |
Next up: A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – ADG, SDSA; Conclave (Focus Features) – ADG, CCA, SDSA
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 3. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross | CCA, GG, HMMA |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | CCA, GG, SCL |
| 5. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers | CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
Next up: Blitz (Apple Original Films) – HMMA; Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – HMMA, SCL
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 2. “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi from The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 3. “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino from Challengers (Amazon MGM) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 4. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main), SCL |
Next up: “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum from Will & Harper (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA (doc), SCL; “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile from Elton John: Never Too Late (Walt Disney Pictures) – HMMA (doc)
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | CAS, MPSE (x3) |
| 2. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CAS, MPSE (x2) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | MPSE (x2) |
| 4. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CAS, MPSE (x2) |
| 5. Deadpool & Wolverine (20th Century Studios) | CAS, MPSE (x3) |
Next up: Alien: Romulus (20th Century Studios) – MPSE (x2); Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – CAS
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
| 1. The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, MUAH (x2) |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) | CCA |
| 4. A Different Man (A24) | CCA, MUAH |
| 5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros) | CCA, MUAH (x3) |
Next up: Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) – CCA; Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – MUAH, Maria (Netflix)
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | CCA |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, CCA |
| 3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) | Annie, CCA |
| 4. Deadpool & Wolverine (Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios) | |
| 5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) | CCA |
Next up: Better Man (Paramount Pictures) – Annie, CCA; Twisters (Paramount Pictures/Warner Bros)
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) | Annie, CCA, GG |
| 2. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) | Annie (independent), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) | Annie, CCA, GG |
| 4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) | Annie, CCA, GG |
| 5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) | Annie (independent), CCA, GG |
Next up: Moana 2 (Walt Disney)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | Berlin (Berlinale Documentary Award), CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
| 2. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA, CEH |
| 3. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | CCA, IDA |
| 4. Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), CEH, EFA, Gotham |
| 5. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) | CEH, PGA, Sundance |
Next up: Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, IDA; Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat (Kino Lorber) – CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA; Will & Harper (Netflix) – CCA
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Cannes (Special Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Berlin (Golden Bear for Best Film), EFA |
| 5. Italy – Vermiglio (Janus Films) | EFA, GG, Gotham |
Next up: Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) – GG; Thailand – How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Well Go USA)
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. Beautiful Men |
| 2. A Bear Named Wojtek |
| 3. Wander to Wonder |
| 4. In the Shadow of the Cypress |
| 5. A Crab in the Pool |
Next up: Maybe Elephants, Yuck!
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. I Am Ready, Warden |
| 2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine |
| 3. Incident |
| 4. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World |
| 5. Death by Numbers |
Next up: I Am Ready, Warden; The Only Girl in the Orchestra
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent |
| 2. An Orange from Jaffa |
| 3. Dovecote |
| 4. Anuja |
| 5. The Masterpiece |
Next up: The Ice Cream Man, I’m Not a Robot
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Stunted Season and the Rise of Chalamet 
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2024 Minnesota Film Critics Association (MNFCA) Winners: ‘The Brutalist,’ ‘Challengers,’ ‘Dune: Part Two’ Lead 
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