Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The Awards Season Blitz Has Begun
A flurry of awards avalanched this week with the Gotham Awards, New York Film Critics Circle, Spirit Awards nominations, National Board of Review winners and the AFI Top 10 announcements.
AFI has never gone 10/10 with Oscar’s Best Picture but this year’s list feels like the most likely to do that since the Academy’s expansion of the Best Picture lineup so we’re trying it on for size this week.
With wildly different groups as those are, we saw big splits on one side for films like The Brutalist and Nickel Boys and another for rapidly building buzz for Wicked, which stormed NBR. But so far no film has performed as well across the board as Anora has. Starting off with its Palme d’Or win at Cannes last summer, Sean Baker’s Cinderella story has AFI, NBR, Gotham Award and Spirit Award nominations under its belt. The film was surprisingly snubbed for wins at Gotham despite being the most-nominated film but did pick up a screenplay win from NYFF.
Sing Sing has been kind of the quiet contender for actually over a year since it premiered at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival and comes in as of this week with AFI, NBR and Spirit Award nominations and Gotham wins for Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin in lead and supporting, respectively. Nickel Boys was also a Gotham winner, for directing and Brandon Wilson in breakthrough performer, then another directing win from New York. Although it missed NBR, AFI came in for it. Oddly enough, same goes for Dune: Part Two, a surprising miss from NBR but then saved by NBR.
In the acting categories, they continue to evolve with not much in the way of true frontrunners yet in Best Actor, Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress (which saw out of left field wins for Carol Kane and Elle Fanning this week) but Supporting Actor seems like it might be coalescing around Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. As a co-lead, he certainly benefits from more screen time than any of his main competition but Maclin should give him a run for his money.
Golden Globes will announce their nominations on Monday (see predictions here) and then Critics Choice just three days later, more pieces to the ever-changing awards puzzle.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards as of December 6, 2024.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) | AFI, NBR |
| 2. Anora (NEON) | AFI, NBR, Gotham, Palme d’Or (Cannes), Spirit |
| 3. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | AFI, NBR |
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) | AFI, NBR, Spirit |
| 5. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) | AFI |
| 6. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | AFI, Jury Prize (Cannes) |
| 7. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | AFI, Gotham, Spirit |
| 8. The Brutalist (A24) | AFI, NYFF |
| 9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI, NBR |
| 10. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | AFI |
DIRECTOR
| 1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 2. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) | Gotham, Spirit |
| 3. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) | Silver Bear (Venice), Spirit |
| 4. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | EFA |
| 5. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | Gotham, NYFF |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) | Gotham |
| 2. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) | Gotham, NYFF |
| 3. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | |
| 4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) | EFA |
| 5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) | EFA, NBR |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | Gotham, Spirit |
| 2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) | |
| 3. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) | Venice (Best Actress), Gotham, NBR |
| 5. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress), EFA |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | Gotham, NBR, NYFF |
| 3. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | Gotham, Spirit |
| 2. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | |
| 4. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | Gotham |
| 5. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | Gotham, Spirit |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Ariana Grande – Wicked (Universal Pictures) | |
| 3. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) | Gotham |
| 4. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 5. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | EFA |
| 3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | |
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | NBR |
| 5. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez) | EFA |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | NYFF |
| 2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | Sundance, Spirit |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | Cannes, EFA |
| 5. Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) Mike Leigh |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling |
| 3. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Joe Walker |
| 4. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker |
| 5. The Brutalist (A24) Dávid Jancsó |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Greig Fraser | |
| 2. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) Jomo Fray | NYFF, Spirit |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) John Mathieson | |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley |
| 2. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros Patrice Vermette |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max |
| 5. Conclave (Focus Features) Suzie Davies |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell |
| 2. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Jacqueline West |
| 3. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates |
| 4. Maria (Netflix) Massimo Cantini Parrini |
| 5. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | HMMA (main) |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol, Camille | HMMA (main) |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | |
| 4. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers | HMMA (animated) |
| 5. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) Alberto Igelsias | HMMA (independent) |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
| 2. “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson from Blitz (Apple Original Films) | HMMA (main) |
| 3. “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile from Elton John: Never Too Late (Walt Disney Pictures) | HMMA (doc) |
| 4. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
| 5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) |
| 5. Twisters (Paramount Pictures/Warner Bros) |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. The Substance (MUBI) |
| 3. Wicked (Universal Pictures) |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) |
| 5. A Different Man (A24) |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) |
| 4. Wicked (Universal Pictures) |
| 5. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) |
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) | |
| 2. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) | |
| 3. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) | NBR, NYFF |
| 4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) | |
| 5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
| 1. No Other Land (Self-distributed) | Berlinale Documentary Award – Berlin, BIFA, EFA, Gotham, NYFF, IDA, NBR |
| 2. Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA, Gotham |
| 3. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA |
| 4. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | Sundance, CCA, NBR |
| 5. Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Jury Prize – Cannes |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Special Jury Prize – Cannes, EFA, BIFA, NBR |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 4. Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) | |
| 5. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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