Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The landscape, it is a changin’

With the announcements last week that the guys from The Trial of the Chicago 7 will all go supporting, that Chadwick Boseman (Netflix’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Steven Yeun (A24’s Minari) are going for lead actor Oscar campaigns it’s time to kick off Frontrunner Friday a bit sooner than I expected to because with changes happening daily, an official prediction made last week is already null and void. That’s not all, there was also the shocking news that Jennifer Hudson’s Aretha Franklin biopic Respect is vacating this Oscar season entirely for next year’s. Ironically, the MGM/UA was initially set for an August 2020 release then moved to January 2021 to take advantage of the late Oscar season (plus COVID considerations) and is now back where it started, August, this time 2021.

Two Warner Bros films, Wonder Woman 1984 and Judas and the Black Messiah, seem like they’re on the precipice of being pulled from this season’s calendar or have yet to be dated so in my monthly predictions, as well here, I am largely holding back on them until we have a definitive word. But then, even we think we do, things change daily. Let’s catch up!

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for October 30, 2020. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE (alphabetical by film)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Erica Huggins, Karen Lunder (producers)

Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Florian Zeller – The Father (Sony Classics Pictures)

Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)

Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)

Regina King – One Night in Miami… (Amazon)

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

2. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

4. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

5. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3.  Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon)

4. Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

5. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

2. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

3. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

4. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

FILM EDITING

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

2. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski

5. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Maryse Alberti

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Emma. (Focus Features)
Kave Quinn (production designer), Stella Fox (set decorations)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

3. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. Ammonite (Neon)
Michael O’Connor

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

4. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (John Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Daniel Pemberton

4. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
David Fleming and Hans Zimmer

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

2. “Lo Si” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

4. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (Disney+)
Written by Diane Warren

5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

SOUND

1. Soul (Pixar)
Nominees TBD

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

4. The Midnight Sky  (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

5. Mank (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Mulan (Disney+)
Nominees TBD

3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

4. Greyhound (Apple TV+)
Nominees TBD

5. Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher

5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Crip Camp (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

3. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley

4. The Dissident (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Bryan Fogel

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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