Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The Long and Shortlist of it all

Leave it to the Academy to come in and dash the hopes and dreams of creators and predictors everywhere by giving us some pretty shocking snubs this week in the most important piece of the Oscar-predicting puzzle yet, the shortlists.

Visual Effects was the biggest head scratcher as Warner Bros chose to make a full push for Wonder Woman 1984 and saw it show up on the BFCA (aka Critics Choice) nomination list and the BAFTA longlist only to get snubbed by the VFX branch of the Academy in favor of WB’s Birds of Prey, which they strangely decided not to even feature at all on their FYC page. Score one for Harley Quinn. Make that two, as BOP also popped up in Makeup and Hairstyling. The biggest surprise in this category though was the presence of the documentary Welcome to Chechnya. An inspired choice, film uses deep fake technology to disguise LGBTQ refugees as they escape the horrors of the country’s brutal gay purge. While certainly not a traditional nominee in this category, this isn’t a traditional year and supporting visual effects may finally have their day at the Oscars in the absence of so many CGI-heavy films.

In Original Song, the Golden Globe-nominated “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs Billie Holiday didn’t make the Oscar shortlist (nor did it show up in Makeup and Hairstyling); neither did “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year Old Version and “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom. but “Green” from Sound of Metal did. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey found itself here with “Make It Work,” as well as Original Score plus Makeup and Hairstyling, both super competitive categories, but it could be a sleeper contender in production design and costume design.

One big takeaway from the shortlist announcement was the impressive performance from Black-led films. In Original Song, Original Score and Makeup & Hairstyling, strong showings from films like One Night in Miami and Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey might be telling us the preamble for what overall Oscar nominations may look like on March 15.

Outside of the shortlists, the acting categories continue to confound. While most are starting to feel like they have three or four very comfortable spots, we still have to wait for BAFTA to speak up (March 9, six days before Oscar nominations) but even then, with the new voting system we could see some wild variances and there will only be one day of overlap between BAFTA noms and Oscar nom voting. Remember, as with the longlists, the actual nominees will be voted on by a small jury and not an entire branch. But, we will see six nominees instead of five.

There’s movement in acting categories except Best Actress, which is starting to feel pretty solid. But you know as soon as you start to get that feeling, Oscar voters yell ‘psyche!’ and pull a shocking fast one (I’m looking at you, Amy Adams in Arrival).

After the excitement of Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations, BAFTA longlists and Oscar shortlists, it’s going to get real quiet again until the Golden Globe Awards on February 28.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for February 12, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

3. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

5. Minari (A24) – GG (foreign), SAG, BFCA
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

7. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

8. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

9. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

10. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) GG, BAFTA longlist
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – GG, BFCA

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Helena Zengel – News of the World – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. First Cow (A24) – BFCA
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Aaron Sorkin

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Emerald Fennell

3. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Lee Isaac Chung

4. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jack Fincher

5. Soul (Pixar) – BAFTA longlist
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Kirk Baxter

4. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jennifer Lame

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BFCA
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures) – BFCA
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Alexandra Byrne

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Ann Roth

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mark Bridges

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BAFTA longlist
Paolo Nieddu

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Sergio Lopez-Rivera (Personal Makeup to Viola Davis), Mia Neal (Hair Department Head, Wig Designer & Wig Builder), Jamika Wilson (Personal Hair for Viola Davis)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

3. Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn  (Warner Bros)– Oscar shortlist
Nominees TBD

4. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA longlist, Oscar shortlist
Mark Coulier (prosthetic makeup designer), Dalia Colli (makeup artist), Francesco Pegoretti (hair designer)

5. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – Oscar shortlist
Scott Wheeler (makeup department head), Sabrina Cruz Castro, (makeup co-department head), Nakoya Yancey (hair department head)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
James Newton Howard

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix) – GG, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios) – Oscar shortlist
Written by Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II

5. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Written by H.E.R., D’Mile, Tiara Thomas

SOUND

1.  The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

2. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

5. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius

5. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO) – Oscar shortlist
Ryan Laney

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Onward (Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

5. No. 7 Cherry Lane
Yonfan, Monica Chau

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA longlist, Oscar shortlist
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – PGA, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films) – Oscar shortlist
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, PGA, Oscar shortlist
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA, Oscar shortlist

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina) – BAFTA longlist, Oscar shortlist

3. Dear Comrades! (Russia) – BAFTA longlist, Oscar shortlist

4. La Lorona (Guatemala) – Oscar shortlist

5. Two of Us (France) – GG, BFCA, Oscar shortlist

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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