Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: We Need to Talk About Bruno

Predictions are a funny thing. Whether you’re a pundit trying to figure out the Oscar race or a studio angling for the most, or most likely, nominations, you use history and instinct and sometimes take a risk to make your choices.

For Disney, that risk was pushing only “Dos Orugitas” from Encanto for the Best Original Song Oscar. A more traditional, somber tune, it is the emotional climax of the film and looking at it from an historical context it made sense to submit it. But it’s upbeat and fun “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” that has shocked, becoming a global hit the likes of which we haven’t seen since “Let It Go” from Frozen.

The Encanto soundtrack rocketed from #110 to #7 on the Billboard Top 200 Album chart last week, as well as being the No. 1 album overall on Apple Music and iTunes (it was just replaced by The Weeknd today). “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” is the #1 song on Spotify’s Top 50 U.S. charts, #4 on iTunes and the video has over 30 million views and has been the #1 trending music video since its release on December 28. On TikTok, which has been ground zero for breakthrough songs on the Billboard charts, the tune is one of the featured trends, having collected more than one billion views across sounds on all accounts.

At the center of all of this is Emmy, Grammy and Tony winner Lin-Manuel Miranda. Already having a banner year with the Warner Bros film version of his first Broadway musical In the Heights to his feature directorial debut of tick, tick…BOOM! from Netflix, Miranda wrote eight of the original songs for Encanto, including both “Dos Orugitas” and “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” Miranda was Oscar-nominated for “How Far I’ll Go” from 2016’s Walt Disney film Moana but lost to “City of Stars,” from La La Land. It seems pretty clear that Disney’s choice was a safe, and even an understandable, one. Miranda had other potentially eligible songs from competing studios threatening his chances including In the Heights and the animated film Vivo from Netflix, neither of which ultimately made the Oscar shortlist cut.

The Academy rules are clear: “No more than two songs from any one film by the exact same writers may be shortlisted. If more than two songs from a film by the exact same writers are in contention, the two songs with the most votes will advance to the shortlist. However, no more than two songs from any one film, regardless of writers, may be nominated for the original song award.”

There’s a very specific reason for that rule, too. Four films – two of them from Walt Disney – have had three original songs nominated by the Academy: Beauty and the Beast (1991), The Lion King (1994), Dreamgirls (2006) and Enchanted (2007). Dreamgirls and Enchanted each lost all three of their bids and in June 2008 the music branch adopted a new rule that no more than two songs from the same film could be Oscar-nominated. Walt Disney films have dominated this category with 14 wins, more than any other studio, beginning with “Wish Upon a Star” from Pinocchio (1940) to their most recent winner, “Remember Me” from Coco (2017). Since the creation of the Animated Feature Film Oscar in 2001, Disney has won both it and Original Song twice: with Frozen and Coco. Monster’s Inc. won song but lost the first animated feature Oscar to Spirited Away.

That of course didn’t stop perennial nominee Diane Warren from submitting three songs and being shortlisted for two of them. But for Disney, and Miranda, opting for the safest bet got them onto the shortlist, as well as the film’s composer Germaine Franco – the first woman to compose a score for a Disney animated film and the first Latina to receive a Golden Globe nomination for Original Score – and Encanto is quickly building steam to make a play for Best Animated Feature. That only helps Miranda in his pursuit of EGOT but missing out on a zeitgeist moment like “Bruno” has created tempers that just a bit.

The Golden Globe Awards, the shambles that they are, will be happening this weekend with a non-livestreamed event at the Beverly Hilton. Winners there will be announced after the 90-minute ceremony (approximately 7:30pm PT) that will include no celebrity presenters or nominated talent. Without the benefit of a live broadcast or talent willing to accept awards, the impact of the Globes and the Hollywood Foreign Press this year will be heavily diminished. While it still exists as as stepping stone on the awards trajectory, their impact will be severely lessened.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for January 7, 2022.

BEST PICTURE

1. Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
3. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA 
5. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA
8. CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA
10. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) 

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA
4. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA 
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) 

BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA 
2. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) – GG, CCA
3. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA
4. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA 
3. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA 
4. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA  
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA 
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) 
5. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) – CCA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA
5. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios)

FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA
2. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA
4. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA 
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) 
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA 

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA 
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA 
5. Spencer (NEON)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA 
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA 
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA 
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) 

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SCL 
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
4. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SCL 
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL 

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL 
2. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA 
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG 
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA , HMMA, SCL

SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) 
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) 
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) 
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA 
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max) 
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios)
5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures) 

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, PGA 
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA 
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA 
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA 
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA 
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA 
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix)
2. Us Again (Walt Disney)
3. The Musician (MTV Entertainment)
4. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
5. Step Into the River (The New Yorker) 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (Netflix)
3. Sophie and the Baron (Disney Original Documentary)
4. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
5. Terror Contagion (NEON) 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. You’re Dead Helen (Daylight Films/Formosa Productions) 
3. Under the Heavens (The New Yorker) 
4. When the Sun Sets (HBO) 
5. Censor of Dreams (Salaud Morisset)