Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: When the Levee Broke

Erik Anderson November 20, 2020

The early word of mouth had been strong; that Chadwick Boseman was not only brilliant in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom but much more than supporting and rather a lead contender. Once the film was screened for press and reactions came in (reviews are out today), the evidence was clear; Boseman was the frontrunner to win Best Actor. He’ll face stiff competition from Anthony Hopkins doing career best work in The Father, but there won’t be an impetus to reward him the way there will be with Boseman. Viola Davis also does stellar work, in a slightly smaller role (although larger than the play version) and is also remains the frontrunner for Best Actress.

One huge piece of news that came in this week was that finally know that Warner Bros does have a plan for Judas and the Black Messiah this Oscar season. The film was submitted for SAG (today is the deadline) so even though we don’t know what type of release the film will get, it will be eligible. We still have unanswered questions like ‘what are the category placements for Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield?’ but for now I’m going with Kaluuya in supporting and Stanfield in lead. That could bode well for Kaluuya and he enters the top five this week while the film and its director, Shaka King, find spots in their respective top 10s. Speaking of Warner Bros, also this week was the bombshell, but expected, news that the studio would be putting Wonder Woman 1984 on HBO Max the same day as its theatrical release, December 25. It’s a bold move for the studio, which had already pulled Dune off the schedule for a fall 2021 bow.

Yet another announcement was the Zendaya and John David Washington film from Euphoria creator Sam Levinson, Malcolm & Marie, would hit Netflix on February 5, 2021, making it Oscar-eligible. Washington stars as a filmmaker and Emmy-winner Zendaya as his girlfriend, and focuses on their return home from a movie premiere and a discussion about their past relationships. The film was shot at Feldman Architecture’s Caterpillar House in Carmel, California under strict COVID-19 guidelines and was picked up by the streamer for $30M out of the Toronto International Film Festival.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for November 20, 2020. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE (alphabetical by film)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)

Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

Regina King – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

Kornél Mundruczó – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

4. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)

5. Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

3. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

4. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

FILM EDITING

1. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski

5. Minari (A24)
Lachlan Milne

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Emma. (Focus Features)
Kave Quinn (production designer), Stella Fox (set decorations)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

3. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Suzie Harman, Robert Worley

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

2. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Thomas Kolarek (Department Head Makeup), Katy Fray (Department Head Makeup), Lisa Layman (Department Head Makeup), Kimberly Boyenger (Department Head Hair), Tyler Ely (Department Head Hair), Peter King (Hair Designer)

5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and John Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Daniel Pemberton

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

2. “Lo Si” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

4. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (Disney+)
Written by Diane Warren

5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

SOUND

1. Soul (Pixar)
Nominees TBD

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

4. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

5. Mank (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Nominees TBD

3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

4. Mulan (Disney+)
Nominees TBD

5. Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher

5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Crip Camp (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films
David France

3. Boys State (Apple TV+)
Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss

4. The Dissident (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Bryan Fogel

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.