Frontrunner Friday: The show’s a mess, Oscar predictions are a roll of the dice
In the last Frontrunner Friday before final 2019 Oscar winner predictions come out next week, we have one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle – BAFTA. But did it help or just confuse us more? Let’s just say it’s a little from column A, a little from column B.
BAFTA went for Roma for Best Film, Director, Cinematography and Film Not in the English Language. No real surprises but there was a question whether it would be able to go all the way and best The Favourite and Green Book for Best Film. The Favourite took the most wins however, landing seven of its 12 nominations, including Leading Actress (Olivia Colman, besting Glenn Close) and Supporting Actress for Rachel Weisz (a default win, depending on how you look at that race).
That BAFTA puzzle piece complicated things quite a bit. In the nine years since the expanded Oscar Best Picture era, BAFTA has aligned five times – and only in the first five years. The last four years in row BAFTA and Oscar split. Roma‘s lack of a PGA win or even a SAG Cast nomination, the two main industry guilds leading up to the Oscars put its frontrunner status in a state of flux. It has DGA, which was a given. In a decade that has seen more Best Picture/Director splits than ever it could mean that Cuarón wins there but BP goes to something else like Green Book or BlacKkKlansman. Each year is a test of the preferential ballot and this year more than ever. The obstacles Roma faces are more than any film has had since the expanded era. If it can truly overcome them all the Oscar game will begin entirely new.
I feel comfortable with my acting predictions: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Glenn Close (The Wife), Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk). The first three have the hardware they need to win and anyone else would be a genuine surprise, statistically. Only Ali has everything. Supporting Actress is a category that has many people pulling their hair out and indeed, SAG and BAFTA made it very difficult. King’s snub from both them, while still winning Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes, throws things into chaos. But for me, and I’m sure many others, it was Emily Blunt’s SAG win over Oscar-nominated competition (Oscar nominations came out as SAG voting was in its final week) that showed the weakness of Amy Adams (Vice), Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (both of The Favourite) in the race. The King campaign has just dominated this week, with Oscar voting ending on Monday. Weisz’s BAFTA win isn’t to be ignored, but I still feel it’s a default win. I won’t discount Roma‘s Marina de Tavira for a moment as a major spoiler if the Academy is in a sweeping mood for the film on its way to Best Picture.
There are still some crucial guilds left to speak up before the Oscars, and certainly before final predictions and all happening this weekend, including the Makeup and Hairstyling guild and Cinema Audio Society (the 16th) and then the Writers Guild of America, Motion Picture Sound Editors (the 17th) and then finally the Costume Designers Guild on the 19th.
As we enter the last week before the Academy Awards on the 24th, it’s impossible not to mention the barrage of fumbles, foibles and fuckups from Oscars’ producers Glenn Weiss and Donna Gigliotti and AMPAS president John Bailey. The moving of four categories – Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup & Hairstyling and Live-Action Short – to commercial breaks for inclusion later in the show, has been met with such a resounding and loud declaration of anger not just from ‘social media’ but from the industry itself it’s hard not to think that this show is going to be a royal failure. Each day, each hour that ticks away is another that the show can’t turn the clock back. We’ll see if this week brings any changes but I remain skeptical. [UPDATE: The Academy reverses decision]
Here are my Frontrunner Friday predictions for the 2019 Oscars on Friday, February 15, 2019 and don’t forget to follow my 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions page here, updating live until the day of the Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
1. ROMA (BAFTA, BFCA, GG*)
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
3. GREEN BOOK (GG, PGA)
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
4. THE FAVOURITE
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
5. VICE
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
6. BLACK PANTHER (SAG)
Kevin Feige
7. A STAR IS BORN
Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
8. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG)
Graham King
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
PGA- Producers Guild of America
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
*Foreign Language Film winner
DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, GG)
2. Spike Lee – BLACKkKLANSMAN
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – THE FAVOURITE
4. Adam McKay – VICE
5. Pawel Pawlikowski – COLD WAR
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
DGA – Directors Guild of America
GG – Golden Globe
ACTOR
1. Rami Malek – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (BAFTA, GG, SAG)
2. Christian Bale – VICE (BFCA, GG)
3. Bradley Cooper – A STAR IS BORN
4. Viggo Mortensen – GREEN BOOK
5. Willem Dafoe – AT ETERNITY’S GATE
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close – THE WIFE (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Olivia Colman – THE FAVOURITE (BAFTA, GG)
3. Lady Gaga – A STAR IS BORN (BFCA)
4. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
5. Melissa McCarthy – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mahershala Ali – GREEN BOOK (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Richard E. Grant – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
3. Adam Driver – BLACKkKLANSMAN
4. Sam Elliott – A STAR IS BORN
5. Sam Rockwell – VICE
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (BFCA, GG)
2. Rachel Weisz – THE FAVOURITE (BAFTA)
3. Marina de Tavira – ROMA
4. Emma Stone – THE FAVOURITE
5. Amy Adams – VICE
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee (BAFTA)
2. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Barry Jenkins (BFCA)
3. CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
5. A STAR IS BORN – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
WGA – Writers Guild of America
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. THE FAVOURITE – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (BAFTA)
2. GREEN BOOK – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (GG)
3. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón
4. VICE – Adam McKay
5. FIRST REFORMED – Paul Schrader (BFCA)
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
WGA – Writers Guild of America
FILM EDITING
1. VICE – Hank Corwin (BAFTA)
2. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Ottman (ACE)
3. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
4. THE FAVOURITE – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (ACE)
5. GREEN BOOK – Patrick J. Don Vito
ACE – American Cinema Editors
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. COLD WAR – Łukasz Żal (ASC)
3. THE FAVOURITE – Robbie Ryan
4. A STAR IS BORN – Matthew Libatique
5. NEVER LOOK AWAY – Caleb Deschanel
ASC – American Society of Cinematographers
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. THE FAVOURITE – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (ADG, BAFTA)
2. BLACK PANTHER – Hannah Beachler (ADG, BFCA)
3. ROMA – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
4. FIRST MAN – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
5. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
ADG – Art Directors Guild
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
COSTUME DESIGN
1. THE FAVOURITE – Sandy Powell (BAFTA)
2. BLACK PANTHER – Ruth E. Carter (BFCA)
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Sandy Powell
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Mary Zophres
5. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Alexandra Byrne
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
CDG – Costume Designers Guild
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Nicholas Britell
2. BLACK PANTHER – Ludwig Goransson
3. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Terence Blanchard
4. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Marc Shaiman
5. ISLE OF DOGS – Alexandre Desplat
ORIGINAL SONG
1. A STAR IS BORN “Shallow” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, GMS)
2. BLACK PANTHER – “All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
5. RBG – “I’ll Fight” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes
GMS – Guild of Music Supervisors
SOUND EDITING
1. FIRST MAN – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
2. BLACK PANTHER – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
3. ROMA – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
4. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Warhurst
5. A QUIET PLACE – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
MPSE – Motion Picture Sound Editors
SOUND MIXING
1. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali (BAFTA)
2. ROMA – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
3. FIRST MAN – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
4. BLACK PANTHER – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
5. A STAR IS BORN – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards (Sound only)
CAS – Cinema Audio Society
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. VICE – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. BORDER – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
3. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
MUAH – Makeup and Hairstyling Guild
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick (VES)
2. FIRST MAN – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm (VES)
3. SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
4. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
5. READY PLAYER ONE – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
VES – Visual Effects Society
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman (Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
2. INCREDIBLES 2 – Brad Bird
3. ISLE OF DOGS – Wes Anderson
4. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
5. MIRAI – Mamoru Hosoda
Annie – International Animated Film Association
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen
2. FREE SOLO – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (BAFTA)
3. MINDING THE GAP – Bing Liu
4. HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING – RaMell Ross (CEH)
5. OF FATHERS AND SONS – Talal Derki
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CEH – Cinema Eye Honors
DGA – Directors Guild of America
IDA – Independent Documentary Association
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. ROMA – Mexico (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
2. COLD WAR – Poland
3. SHOPLIFTERS – Japan
4. NEVER LOOK AWAY – GErmany
5. CAPERNAUM – Lebanon
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes
ANIMATED SHORT
1. BAO – Domee Shi
2. ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR – Alison Snowden, David Fine
3. LATE AFTERNOON – Louise Bagnall
4. ONE SMALL STEP – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
5. WEEKENDS – Trevor Jimenez
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. A NIGHT IN THE GARDEN – Marshall Curry
2. END GAME – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
3. PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE. – Rayka Zehtabchi
4. LIFEBOAT – Skye Fitzgerald
5. BLACK SHEEP – Ed Perkins
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. MARGUERITE – Marianne Farley
2. FAUVE – Jeremy Comte
3. DETAINMENT – Vincent Lambe
4. SKIN – Guy Nattiv
5. MOTHER – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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