Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Motion Picture: Will it be One Award After Another or Will Voters be Sentimental?
How many awards can One Battle After Another win? Can Sentimental Value bound back after its SAG snub? How will other international fare like The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident do? These questions and more sit in front of us ahead the Golden Globe Awards this weekend.
Here’s what we do know: we have SAG nominations and the Critics Choice Awards under our belt as the first televised awards show of the season. Globe voting ending before CCA so there was no ability to look at anyone else’s homework. That makes for potentially interesting results since there won’t be an intentional copy/paste. Even the SAG noms came out after Globe voting ended so things could be more open than we think. I mean, who predicted Jacob Elordi to win at Critics Choice? Does he repeat here and march to the Dolby?
With One Battle and Sinners in different categories, the former (in comedy) has a clear path to win over Marty Supreme, which had a modest showing for nominations. The drama battle between Hamnet, Sinners and Sentimental Value is an interesting one though. Hamnet has clearly been a Jessie Buckley only road for the film so far, despite capturing all of the nominations the film can muster. Sentimental Value has the second-most noms here after OBAA, it’s going home with something, possibly more than a few. But where else does Sinners win besides maybe Score? Michael B. Jordan isn’t likely besting Wagner Moura, not with this group. Director and Screenplay aren’t happening, with Paul Thomas Anderson, Joachim Trier and Jafar Panahi in the mix. Could Sinners just win Best Picture – Drama? It certainly can and it’s happened before, notably with Black-led films like Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave, both of which would go on to win the Best Picture Oscar. But in truth, Sinners isn’t as strong as either of those films so I’m hesitant to say it has an easy path here.
One thing I think about a lot when it comes to Globe voters is, even though we regard them as an ‘industry’ award since they’re televised, they’re all journalists. No different, really, than Critics Choice. But, since their overall and expansion from 100 to 400 members and the majority of them not being LA-based and susceptible to the number of in person meet and greets and general palm greasing, it can make for nominees and winners that aren’t just rubber-stamping. Last year, Anora lost every nomination here while Emilia Pérez triumphed. While SAG denied all non-English language films and performances, the Globes, as a truly international group, are definitely more open to them.
This is where I think Stellan Skarsgård can win, but I think Elordi and Benicio Del Toro are right there. Amy Madigan feels like Jessie Buckley, a complete sweeper. Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio will go head to head again this weekend. Chalamet triumphed at CCA, winning his first there, and will probably win his first Globe here against a 15-time nominee and three-time winner. But I’m far from counting out DiCaprio here, who will be in the Best Picture winner.
Helen Mirren is the 70th recipient of the Golden Globes’ Cecil B. DeMille Award, in recognition for her decades of work on screen and in television. Mirren has been nominated for 17 Golden Globes, winning three times, first as Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie for Losing Chase (1995) and then becoming a double winner for her work in 2005, in the film The Queen and as Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie for Elizabeth I. A new primetime special, Golden Eve, will debut on CBS Thursday, January 8, 2026 where Mirren will be presented with the Cecil B. DeMille Award.
The 83rd Golden Globe Awards will be held on January 11 live from the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills on the CBS Television Network, and streaming on Paramount+ in the U.S., and hosted once again by Nikki Glaser.
Here are my winner predictions and potential spoilers in the motion picture categories.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Predicted winner: Hamnet
Spoiler: Sentimental Value
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Predicted winner: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Spoiler: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Predicted winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Spoiler: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Predicted winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Predicted winner: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Spoiler: Emma Stone, Bugonia
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Spoiler: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Spoiler: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: Sentimental Value
Spoiler: One Battle After Another
BEST MOTION PICTURE – NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Predicted winner: The Secret Agent
Spoiler: Sentimental Value
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
Predicted winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: Arco
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: “I Lied to You,” Sinners
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Predicted winner: Sinners
Spoiler: Sirāt
CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
Predicted winner: Sinners
Spoiler: Avatar: Fire and Ash
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Motion Picture: Will it be One Award After Another or Will Voters be Sentimental? - January 8, 2026
- American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations: ‘Frankenstein,’ Marty Supreme’ Make the Cut, ‘Hamnet’ Misses - January 8, 2026
- Oscars: 317 Films Eligible for 98th Academy Awards, 201 for Best Picture - January 8, 2026
Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Motion Picture: Will it be One Award After Another or Will Voters be Sentimental? 
American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations: ‘Frankenstein,’ Marty Supreme’ Make the Cut, ‘Hamnet’ Misses 
Oscars: 317 Films Eligible for 98th Academy Awards, 201 for Best Picture 
DGA Awards: Directors Guild Nominates Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Josh Safdie, Chloé Zhao