Golden Globe Nomination Predictions – Motion Picture

The nominations for the 77th Golden Globe Awards will be announced on Monday, December 9th at 5am PST / 8am EST and are the first of the industry awards to get the ball rolling towards the Oscar nominations in January.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), who puts on the Golden Globes, is made up of Los Angeles-based entertainment journalists who cover film and television representing more than 55 countries and seen in more than 210 territories throughout the world. A small group (about 90-ish) who’s numbers never really grow, the HFPA has often been mocked for questionable category placements in order to get stars to show up (sorry, we’re never letting The Tourist go) but have gotten a bit better over the last few years.

Eight-time Golden Globe winner Tom Hanks is receiving the group’s Cecil B. deMille Award (and is likely to pick up another nod) and the Golden Globe Ambassadors this year are the sons of Pierce Brosnan, Dylan and Paris.

Ricky Gervais returns as host for the 4th time, taking over for the duo of Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh last year.

We’ve just begun awards season with the Gothams, National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle winners this week as well as the AFI Top 10 films of the year. Together, with the Golden Globe nominations (and Screen Actors Guild nominations on the 11th) a clearer picture will start to form in a season without a lot of frontrunners so far. The Irishman is definitely out in front early in Best Picture after picking up NBR and NYFCC and landing a spot at AFI. That and its Netflix co-competitor Marriage Story should end up with the most nominations on Monday with Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood right there with them.

I expect Lionsgate’s Knives Out and Universal’s 1917 to do well as they’ve both picked up steam with week. Neon’s Parasite and The Farewell from A24 should be able to break out of Foreign Language Film into the acting and directing categories. Fox’s box office hit Ford v Ferrari and WB’s AFI/NBR winner Richard Jewell could have a huge morning or fizzle out before they even begin. Where will WB’s billion dollar Joker and Fox Searchlight’s TIFF-winning Jojo Rabbit land? We’ll know in just a few days.

Here are my Golden Globe predictions for Motion Picture.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

• 1917
• The Irishman
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story

Spoilers: Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

• Cats
• Jojo Rabbit
• Knives Out
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Rocketman

Spoilers: Booksmart, Hustlers

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

• Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
• Robert De Niro, The Irishman
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
• Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Spoilers: Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari; Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems; Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

• Daniel Craig, Knives Out
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Taron Egerton, Rocketman
• Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
• Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Spoilers: Rowan Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit; Jacob Tremblay, Good Boys

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

• Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Renée Zellweger, Judy

Spoilers: Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts; Lupita Nyong’o, Us, Alfre Woodard, Clemency;

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

• Ana de Armas, Knives Out
• Awkwafina, The Farewell
• Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
• Emma Thompson, Late Night
• Constance Wu, Hustlers

Spoilers: Kaitlyn Dever, Booksmart; Francesca Hayward, Cats; Meryl Streep, The Laundromat; Charlize Theron, Long Shot

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

• Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman
• Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Spoilers: Timothée Chalamet, Little Women; Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes; Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

• Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern, Marriage Story
• Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
• Margot Robbie, Bombshell
• Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Spoilers: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit; Nicole Kidman, Bombshell; Florence Pugh, Little Women; Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Director

• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Spoilers: Greta Gerwig, Little Women; James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari; Todd Phillips, Joker; Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Best Screenplay

• Jojo Rabbit
• Knives Out
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Spoilers: The Farewell, Parasite, The Two Popes

Best Animated Feature Film

• Frozen II
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

Spoilers: The Addams Family, Spies in Disguise

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Farewell
• Invisible Life
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite
• Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Spoilers: Les Misérables

Best Original Score

• 1917
• Ford v. Ferrari
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women

Best Original Song

• “Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats
• “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II
• “Stand Up,” Harriet
• “Spirit,” The Lion King
• “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman

Spoilers: “Speechless,” Aladdin; “Glasgow (Ain’t No Place Like Home),” Wild Rose