Golden Globe Predictions – Motion Picture: Box Office Will Reign Supreme One Way or Another

“The Golden Globes are back” is starting to sound like a common refrain and this year is no different.

After a deeply embattled few years of deserved backlash for its numerous scandals, from alleged bribery to outright racism and questionable behavior, there simply wasn’t a scandal that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who puts on…who used to put on the glitzy awards show, hasn’t been party to. After 80 years and decades of controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) has disbanded and is no more. In a bombshell announcement earlier this summer, new owners Dick Clark Productions and Todd Boehly’s Eldridge have acquired all Golden Globes assets (including cash on hand), rights, and properties from the HFPA via a newly formed Golden Globe Foundation, which “will continue the legacy HPFA’s history of entertainment-related charitable giving.”

After a year off from their expensive NBC contract (who still hold the rights to airing the show through 2027), the network aired the show last season to all-time low numbers. Cut to this season where NBC is out and CBS will now present the big show. All eyes will be on ratings again here and CBS, with its older and consistent viewing population, has proven it can still provide TV numbers even without the covted 18-49 advertising demo.

Penske Media, which owns several entertainment journalism outlets including Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, IndieWire, GoldDerby, TV Line and Deadline, is now the sole owner of the Golden Globes.

Undergoing numerous changes to its board, expelling problematic members and introducing over 200 new voters, the ‘new’ Golden Globes aims to right the wrongs of its past or at least make you forget them for a while. As well as the upheaval of its membership, the body changed or incorporated several additions to its categories, including allowing non-English language and animated films to compete in the Motion Picture – Drama and/or Musical/Comedy categories but this year added a new category that has already stirred the pot.

The new Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category (for movies that grossed more than $150 million, with at least $100 million in the U.S. or equivalent streaming numbers), will nominate eight films from 18 eligible titles that, according to the ballot, include films that do not or have not yet met that criteria. Far too reminiscent of the Academy’s attempt to introduce this category in 2018, only to rescind it after hailstorm of backlash, we’ll see how long this category lasts at the Globes but it feels right up there alley whether it’s their past, present or future. Plus, it’s also the only place that Barbie and Oppenheimer can truly go head to head in a title vs. title category as they are split between Drama and Comedy in the main ones, and you just know they wanted that face off.

Specifically, the rules for the new category state:

Films that are released after November 22 up until the end of the year may qualify based on projected box office performance and/or digital streaming views from trusted industry sources.

Box office and streaming views will determine eligibility; once a film meets the box office-related qualifying criteria or streaming criteria, Golden Globes voters will determine the nominees and winner based on excellence. 

Oh, and one more thing; there are now six nomination slots in all categories. Does that make tough categories easier or harder to predict? Will we more or less actual variety? Take a look at Original Song, for example. There is a very real chance we’ll have 5/6 songs from Warner Bros films: three from Barbie and one each from The Color Purple and Wonka. If so, who gets the final spot? Olivia Rodrigo with her Hunger Games song? The perennial Diane Warren? Jack Black’s “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie?

We do know that Todd Haynes’ May December was submitted, and accepted, in the Musical or Comedy categories and while Julianne Moore and Charles Melton will compete in supporting where all genres are combined, Natalie Portman should definitely find her way in. With the allowance of non-English language films able to be nominated in the top Drama and Musical or Comedy Motion Picture category we could see one or both of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, both of which are assured nods in the Non-English Language Film section as well.

Nominations will be announced at 5am PT on Monday, December 11 and the 81st Annual Golden Globe Awards are set to take place on Sunday, January 7, 2024 and air live on CBS.

Here are my Golden Globe nomination predictions for Motion Picture.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

• Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Maestro (Netflix)
• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Past Lives (A24)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)

Next up: All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), The Iron Claw (A24), Saltburn (Amazon MGM)

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

• American Fiction (Amazon MGM)
• Barbie (Warner Bros)
• The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• May December (Netflix)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Air (Amazon Studios), Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret., (Lionsgate), Bottoms (MGM/Orion)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix)
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24)

Next up: Adam Driver – Ferrari (NEON), Zac Efron – The Iron Claw (A24), Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon MGM)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

• Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario (A24)
• Timothée Chalamet – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Matt Damon – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• Gael García Bernal – Cassandro (Amazon MGM)
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM)

Next up: Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures), Andrew Barth Feldman – No Hard Feelings (Sony Pictures) , Joaquin Phoenix – Beau Is Afraid (A24)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

• Annette Bening, Nyad (Netflix)
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
• Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24)
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro (Netflix)
• Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (A24)

Next up: Jessica Chastain – Memory (Ketchup Entertainment), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin (NEON), Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

• Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Jennifer Lawrence – No Hard Feelings (Sony Pictures)
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus – You Hurt My Feelings (A24)
• Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix)
• Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Halle Bailey – The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney), Ayo Edebiri – Bottoms (MGM/Orion), Abby Ryder Fortson – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. (Lionsgate)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM)
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON)
• Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix)
• Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Next up: Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios), Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix)

Best Director

• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
• Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features), Celine Song – Past Lives (A24), Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)

Best Screenplay

• American Fiction (Amazon MGM)
• Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
• Barbie (Warner Bros)
• The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films), Maestro (Netflix), May December (Netflix)

Best Motion Picture – Animated

• The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
• Elemental (Walt Disney/Pixar)Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
• Wish (Walt Disney)

Next up: Nimona (Netflix), The Peasants (Sony Pictures Classics), Robot Dreams (NEON), Trolls Band Together (Universal Pictures)

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

• Anatomy of a Fall – France (NEON)
• The Promised Land – Denmark (Magnolia Pictures)
• The Taste of Things – France (IFC Films)
• The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany
• Society of the Snow – Spain (Netflix)
• The Zone of Interest – UK (A24)

Next up: Fallen Leaves – Finland, Perfect Days – Japan (NEON), Shayda – Australia (Sony Pictures Classics)

Best Original Score

• The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Next up: American Fiction (Amazon MGM), Nyad (Netflix), The Zone of Interest (A24)

Best Original Song

• “Dance the Night” from Barbie (Warner Bros)
• “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (Warner Bros)
• “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (Warner Bros)
• “Keep It Movin’” from The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate)
• “A World of Your Own” from Wonka (Warner Bros)

Next up: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ On (Searchlight Pictures), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney), “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (Netflix), “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures), “This Wish” from Wish (Walt Disney)

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

• Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 (Walt Disney/Marvel)
• The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate)
• John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)
• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
• Taylor Swift The Eras Tour (AMC)

Next up: Creed III (Amazon MGM), Elemental (Walt Disney/Pixar), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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