Gotham Awards Winner Predictions: Call Me By Your Name vs Get Out

The Gotham Awards aren’t usually looked at as a serious precursor but in a year where everything is so up in the air, I’ll take what I can get. It’s also worth noting that last year’s winners here for Best Feature and Screenplay (both Moonlight), Best Actor (Manchester by the Sea‘s Casey Affleck) and Documentary (O.J. Made in America) all went on to win Oscars just a few months later.

This year, the top award feels like a choice between two of the biggest critical hits of the year, Call Me By Your Name and Get Out. Both also topped the Film Independent Spirit Award nominations and could run side by side this season. I’m giving the edge to Call Me By Your Name but Get Out isn’t leaving the night without at least one win. With each film’s lead, Timothée Chalamet for CMBYN and Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out competing in two different categories (Breakthrough Actor and Best Actor, respectively) there’s a shot each could triumph.

Lady Bird earned three nominations and Saoirse Ronan is probably the film’s best shot at a win but look out for Margot Robbie, whose I, Tonya is the only Best Actress contender with an accompanying Best Feature nomination. The Gothams don’t have a supporting category (The Florida Project‘s Willam Dafoe is competing in Lead here) so we won’t see a first battle between those leads’ counter components, Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney, just yet. I could see Columbus‘ Haley Lu Richardson come in and surprise Ronan and Robbie the way that Bel Powley did two years ago, besting Cate Blanchett (Carol) and eventual Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room).

Last year I correctly predicted Feature, Actor, Actress, Breakthrough Director and Breakthrough Series – Long Form. Below are my predictions in red for the 27th IFP Gotham Awards, which will take place Monday, November 27, 2017 and be hosted by John Cameron Mitchell.

Best Feature

Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Good Time
I, Tonya

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award

Maggie Betts for Novitiate
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Kogonada for Columbus
Jordan Peele for Get Out
Joshua Z. Weinstein for Menashe

Best Screenplay

The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Brad’s Status, Mike White
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
Columbus, Kogonada
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig

Best Actor

James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky
Adam Sandler, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Actress

Haley Lu Richardson, Columbus
Melanie Lynskey, i don’t feel at home in this world anymore.
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime

Special Jury Award For Ensemble Performance

Mudbound, presented to Carey Mulligan, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Clarke, Jason Mitchell, Mary J. Blige, Rob Morgan, and Jonathan Banks.

Breakthrough Actor

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., It Comes at Night
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project

Best Documentary

Ex Libris – The New York Public Library
Rat Film
Strong Island
Whose Streets?
The Work

Breakthrough Series – Long Form

Atlanta
Better Things
Dear White People
Fleabag
Search Party

Breakthrough Series – Short Form

555
Inconceivable
Junior
Let Me Die a Nun
The Strange Eyes of Dr. Myes