No Televised Precursor But, Hello Oscar Nod!

One of our more intrepid forum members, Nicole Latayan (aka klariso) has done some digging on performances that received Oscar nominations despite zero attention at the major precursors that help us do our awards predicting jobs so well (or not so well, as the case may be). In the last ten years, nine performances managed to sneak in at the Oscars despite missing all major televised awards: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA. They are:

LEAD ACTOR:

Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (2004)

Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah (2007)

LEAD ACTRESS:

Laura Linney, The Savages (2007)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Djimon Hounsou, In America (2003)

William Hurt, A History of Violence (2005)

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road (2008)

Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Shorheh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog (2003)

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart (2009)

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Now, there are cases to be made for quite a few of these; Shorheh Aghdashloo won supporting actress awards from New York and Los Angeles, Maggie Gyllenhaal was a coattail nominee from the eventual (and predictable) Best Actor winner, Tommy Lee Jones also had No Country for Old Men that year but all buzz was for Javier Bardem. Djimon Honsou won the Independent Spirit Award for his role (and San Diego film critics honored him) but it was probably the surprise cast nomination from SAG that In America received that put and kept him on AMPAS's radar. Then there are truly confounding nominations like Michael Shannon. Even with Kate Winslet competing against herself that year with The Reader (which, for better or for worse, would win her the Oscar) and Leonardo DiCaprio becoming successful at netting himself nominations, it was Revoluntionary Road's supporting player Shannon that caused gasps the morning of Oscar nominations. Same for Max von Sydow. The Swedish actor had been nominated 24 years earlier for Pelle the Conqueror and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close managed a shocking Best Picture nomination that year as well. While Jacki Weaver got swept up in the love for Silver Linings Playbook, only Oscar prognosticator Scott Feinberg had her predicted for a nomination. 

Which brings us to this year. Will it happen again? This year, no less than 35 performances have been recognized by all four televised precursor awards. Latayan came up with eight distinct possibilities of players that could score an upset on January 16th. 

1. Michael B. Jordan, "Fruitvale Station" (Lead Actor) – Sure, the movie is dead now with no precursor support aside from that AFI Top 10 mention, but critics gave him most, if not all, of their Breakthrough performance awards. Can it still penetrate an already crowded field?

2. Adéle Exarchopoulos, "Blue is the Warmest Color" (Lead Actress) – While it wasn't as smooth as Riva's road last year, Adéle fits the hot young newbie that this category loves to honor. She's the only possible newbie contender, and while she hasn't had luck with the televised awards, she tied with Cate Blanchett for the LAFCA, won Breakthrough Actress at the NBR, has been nominated for a dozen of critics awards, and winning a special citation as a co-winner for Plame d'Or.

3. Will Forte, "Nebraska" (Supporting Actor) – Seems like the odds aren't on his side especially since he received no televised precursor as compared to co-stars Bruce Dern and June Squibb, then Alexander Payne movies typically underwhelms come Oscar nomination morning, but can this NBR Best Supporting Actor winner (and a runner up at St. Louis Gateway Film Critics) change the tide this year?

4. Tom Hanks, "Saving Mr. Banks" (Supporting Actor) – Once perceived as a two time nominee this year, Hanks was expected to be a shoo-in at least at the Globes and SAGs for his performance as Oscar's most awarded figure. But so far, all Hanks received for this is a Satellite and Phoenix Film Critics nominations. Then again, in a crowded Best Actor line up, can they instead acknowledge Hanks' performance here instead of his lead one to cater that more crowded category?

5. Jeremy Renner, "American Hustle" (Supporting Actor) – So far, Renner has been the odd man of the ensemble being the only one not individually nominated aside from his runner up status at the Indiana Film Journalists Association. Hustle seems to be too loved by precursors now that a consecutive four nods in all acting categories is expected to happen. Can Russell beat his own record and go for a fifth one and carry Jeremy Renner along the ride?

6. Jonah Hill, "Wolf of Wall Street" (Supporting Actor) – It has been a good two days for The Wolf of Wall Street with Scorsese nabbing the DGA nod, and the film getting in three major nods at the BAFTAs for Scorsese, di Caprio, and Screenplay. The team is obviously campaigning hard for the nods, and it is peaking at the right time. Can passion for the film carry with it a nod for previous nominee Jonah Hill? His only mention thus far is from the Central Ohio Film Critics.

7. Jennifer Garner, "Dallas Buyers Club" (Supporting Actress) – Dallas Buyers Club has shown great strength among guilds by reaping PGA, SAG Ensemble, and WGA nods. It seems to be a popular fare in the Academy, and one that has its passionate share of its supporters. Garner, despite having no Oscar nods under her belt, is part of a famous Hollywood couple who has her connections with some AMPAS members and has paid her dues. It's easy to see her being rewarded with an Oscar nomination. You know who is predicting her? Jacki Weaver's best friend, Scott Feinberg. 

8. Octavia Spencer, "Fruitvale Station" (Supporting Actress) – 2011 champ in this category Octavia Spencer picks up the NBR for this performance. But like Michael B. Jordan, she hasn't been rewarded anywhere. The film seems like a non-entity aside of breakthrough categories. With that said, she received mentions from Washington and San Francisco, and she has the narrative of the first black actress being nominated after her win.

Any of those are near to long shots but Oscar still has surprises left for us. Maybe none of them actually make it in the end. What do you think? Discuss it in our forums.